Feature Optimization for Time Series Forecasting via Novel Randomized Uphill Climbing

Randomized Uphill Climbing (RUC) is a lightweight, stochastic search heuristic that has delivered state-of-the-art equity "alpha" factors for quantitative hedge funds. I propose to generalize RUC into a model-agnostic feature optimization framework for multivariate time-series forecasting. The core idea is to (i) synthesize candidate feature programs by randomly composing operators from a domain-specific grammar, (ii) score candidates rapidly with inexpensive surrogate models (OLS/Poisson) on rolling windows, and (iii) filter instability via nested cross-validation and information-theoretic shrinkage. By decoupling feature discovery from GPU-heavy deep learning, the method promises faster iteration cycles, lower energy consumption, and greater interpretability. Societal relevance: accurate, transparent forecasting tools empower resource-constrained institutions, energy regulators, climate-risk NGOs--to make data-driven decisions without proprietary black-box models.