Arctic sea ice performs a vital role in global climate and has paramount impacts on both polar ecosystems and coastal communities. In the last few years, multiple deep learning based pan-Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) forecasting methods have emerged and showcased superior performance over physics-based dynamical models. However, previous methods forecast SIC at a fixed temporal granularity, e.g.

Time series analysis provides essential insights for real-world system dynamics and informs downstream decision-making, yet most existing methods often overlook the rich contextual signals present in auxiliary modalities. To bridge this gap, we introduce TimeXL, a multi-modal prediction framework that integrates a prototypebased time series encoder with three collaborating Large Language Models (LLMs) to deliver more accurate predictions and interpretable explanations. First, a multimodal prototype-based encoder processes both time series and textual inputs to generate preliminary forecasts alongside case-based rationales. These outputs then feed into a prediction LLM, which refines the forecasts by reasoning over the encoder's predictions and explanations. Next, a reflection LLM compares the predicted values against the ground truth, identifying textual inconsistencies or noise. Guided by this feedback, a refinement LLM iteratively enhances text quality and triggers encoder retraining. This closed-loop workflow--prediction, critique (reflect), and refinement--continuously boosts the framework's performance and interpretability. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeXL achieves up to 8.9% improvement in AUC and produces human-centric, multi-modal explanations, highlighting the power of LLM-driven reasoning for time series prediction.

This paper is concerned with online time series forecasting, where unknown distribution shifts occur over time, i.e., latent variables influence the mapping from historical to future observations. To develop an automated way of online time series forecasting, we propose a Theoretical framework for Online Time-series forecasting (TOT in short) with theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we prove that supplying a forecaster with latent variables tightens the Bayes risk--the benefit endures under estimation uncertainty of latent variables and grows as the latent variables achieve a more precise identifiability. To better introduce latent variables into online forecasting algorithms, we further propose to identify latent variables with minimal adjacent observations. Based on these results, we devise a modelagnostic blueprint by employing a temporal decoder to match the distribution of observed variables and two independent noise estimators to model the causal inference of latent variables and mixing procedures of observed variables, respectively. Experiment results on synthetic data support our theoretical claims. Moreover, plugin implementations built on several baselines yield general improvement across multiple benchmarks, highlighting the effectiveness in real-world applications.

Recent deep learning approaches for river discharge forecasting have improved the accuracy and efficiency in flood forecasting, enabling more reliable early warning systems for risk management. Nevertheless, existing deep learning approaches in hydrology remain largely confined to local-scale applications and do not leverage the inherent spatial connections of bodies of water. Thus, there is a strong need for new deep learning methodologies that are capable of modeling spatio-temporal relations to improve river discharge and flood forecasting for scientific and operational applications. To address this, we present RiverMamba, a novel deep learning model that is pretrained with long-term reanalysis data and that can forecast global river discharge and floods on a 0.05 grid up to 7 days lead time, which is of high relevance in early warning. To achieve this, RiverMamba leverages efficient Mamba blocks that enable the model to capture spatio-temporal relations in very large river networks and enhance its forecast capability for longer lead times. The forecast blocks integrate ECMWFHRES meteorological forecasts, while accounting for their inaccuracies through spatio-temporal modeling. Our analysis demonstrates that RiverMamba provides reliable predictions of river discharge across various flood return periods, including extreme floods, and lead times, surpassing both AIand physics-based models. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/RiverMamba.

People continuously perceive and interact with their surroundings based on underlying intentions that drive their exploration and behaviors.

Precise, generalizable subject-agnostic seizure prediction (SASP) remains a fundamental challenge due to the intrinsic complexity and significant spectral variability of electrophysiologial signals across individuals and recording modalities. We propose FAPEX, a novel architecture that introduces a learnable fractional neural frame operator (FrNFO) for adaptive time-frequency decomposition. Unlike conventional models that exhibit spectral bias toward low frequencies, our FrNFO employs fractional-order convolutions to capture both high and low-frequency dynamics, achieving approximately 10% improvement in F1-score and sensitivity over state-of-the-art baselines. The FrNFO enables the extraction of instantaneous phase and amplitude representations that are particularly informative for preictal biomarker discovery and enhance out-of-distribution generalization. FAPEXfurther integrates structural state-space modeling and channelwise attention, allowing it to handle heterogeneous electrode montages.

Spatio-temporal prediction plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation, weather forecasting, and urban planning. While integrating multi-modal data has shown potential for enhancing prediction accuracy, key challenges persist: (i) inadequate fusion of multi-modal information, (ii) confounding factors that obscure causal relations, and (iii) high computational complexity of prediction models. To address these challenges, we propose E2-CSTP, an Effective and Efficient Causal multimodal Spatio-Temporal Prediction framework. E2-CSTP leverages cross-modal attention and gating mechanisms to effectively integrate multi-modal data. Building on this, we design a dual-branch causal inference approach: the primary branch focuses on spatio-temporal prediction, while the auxiliary branch mitigates bias by modeling additional modalities and applying causal interventions to uncover true causal dependencies. To improve model efficiency, we integrate GCN with the Mamba architecture for accelerated spatio-temporal encoding. Extensive experiments on 4 real-world datasets show that E2-CSTP significantly outperforms 9 state-of-the-art methods, achieving up to 9.66% improvements in accuracy as well as 17.37%-56.11%

Recent studies reveal that Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong sequential reasoning capabilities, allowing them to replace specialized time-series models and serve as foundation models for complex time-series analysis. To activate the capabilities of LLMs for time-series tasks, numerous studies have attempted to bridge the gap between time series and linguistics by aligning textual representations with time-series patterns. However, it is a non-trivial endeavor to losslessly capture the infinite time-domain variability using natural language, leading to suboptimal alignment performance. Beyond representation, contextual differences, where semantics in time series are conveyed by consecutive points, unlike in text by individual tokens, are often overlooked by existing methods. To address these, we propose S2TS-LLM, a simple yet effective framework to repurpose LLMs for universal time series analysis through the following two main paradigms: (i) a spectral symbolization paradigm transforms time series into frequency-domain representations characterized by a fixed number of components and prominent amplitudes, which enables a limited set of symbols to effectively abstract key frequency features; (ii) a contextual segmentation paradigm partitions the sequence into blocks based on temporal patterns and reassigns positional encodings accordingly, thereby mitigating the structural mismatch between time series and natural language.

Motion simulation, prediction and planning are foundational tasks in autonomous driving, each essential for modeling and reasoning about dynamic traffic scenarios. While often addressed in isolation due to their differing objectives, such as generating diverse motion states or estimating optimal trajectories, these tasks inherently depend on shared capabilities: understanding multi-agent interactions, modeling motion behaviors, and reasoning over temporal and spatial dynamics. Despite this underlying commonality, existing approaches typically adopt specialized model designs, which hinders cross-task generalization and system scalability. More critically, this separation overlooks the potential mutual benefits among tasks. Motivated by these observations, we propose UniMotion, a unified motion framework that captures shared structures across motion tasks while accommodating their individual requirements. Built on a decoder-only Transformer architecture, UniMotion employs dedicated interaction modes and tailored training strategies to simultaneously support these motion tasks. This unified design not only enables joint optimization and representation sharing but also allows for targeted fine-tuning to specialize in individual tasks when needed. Extensive experiments on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset demonstrate that joint training leads to robust generalization and effective task integration. With further fine-tuning, UniMotion achieves state-of-the-art performance across a range of motion tasks, establishing it as a versatile and scalable solution for autonomous driving.

Time series data is ubiquitous, with forecasting applications spanning from finance to healthcare. Beyond popular deterministic methods, generative models are gaining attention due to advancements in areas like image synthesis and video generation, as well as their inherent ability to provide probabilistic predictions. However, existing generative approaches mostly involve recurrent generative operations or repeated denoising steps, making the prediction laborious, particularly for long-term forecasting. Most of them only conduct experiments for relatively short-term forecasting, with limited comparison to deterministic methods in long-term forecasting, leaving their practical advantages unclear. This paper presents TARFVAE, a novel generative framework that combines the Transformer-based autoregressive flow (TARFLOW) and variational autoencoder (VAE) for efficient one-step generative time series forecasting.