Real-Time Prediction of the Duration of Distribution System Outages

Outages are fairly common in power distribution networks [1], [2], and this number is increasing in some countries because of aging infrastructure and changing weather patterns [3], [4]. While good design and maintenance reduce the number of outages, they cannot be eliminated completely. When an outage is required to perform maintenance or upgrade the equipment, the utility can minimize the disruption of service to customers by carefully planning the deployment of the crews and the sequence of operations. On the other hand, a fault in the system usually causes an unplanned outages, which can lead to long service interruptions and significant inconvenience to the customers. Therefore, reducing the number of unplanned outages and better managing their duration is a priority for most utilities [5]. The first step towards mitigating the negative consequences of unplanned outages is to gain a better understanding of their number and duration, as well as the number of customers affected.