Modeling the Dynamics of Online Learning Activity

Learning has become an online activity - people routinely use a wide variety of online learning platforms, ranging from wikis and question answering (Q&A) sites to online communities and blogs, to learn about a large range of topics. In this context, people find solutions to their problems by looking for closely related pieces of information, executing a sequence of queries or, more generally, performing a series of online actions. For example, a high school student may study several closely related wiki pages to prepare an essay about a historical event; a software developer may read several answers within a Q&A site to solve a specific programming problem; and, a researcher may check a specialized blog written by one of her peers to learn about a new concept or technique. All the above are examples of learning patterns, in which people perform a series of online actions - reading a wiki page, an answer, or a blog - to achieve a predefined goal - writing an essay, solving a programming problem, or learning about a new concept or technique. In this context, one may expect that people with similar goals undertake similar sequences of online actions and thus adopt similar learning patterns. Therefore, one could leverage the vast availability of online traces of users' learning activity to disambiguate among interleaved learning patterns adopted by individuals over time, as well as to automatically identify and track those people's interests and goals over time. In this work, we introduce a novel probabilistic model, the Hierarchical Dirichlet Hawkes Process (HDHP), for clustering continuous-time grouped streaming data, which we use to uncover the dynamics of learning activity on the web. The HDHP leverages the properties of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) [18], a popular Bayesian nonparametric model for clustering problems involving multiple groups of data, combined with the Hawkes process [13], a temporal point process particularly well fitted to model social activity [11, 19, 20]. In particular, the former is used to account for an infinite number of learning patterns, which are shared across users (groups) of an online learning platform.