Beelines: Evaluating Motion Prediction Impact on Self-Driving Safety and Comfort

The commonly used metrics for motion prediction do not correlate well with a self-driving vehicle's system-level performance. The most common metrics are average displacement error (ADE) and final displacement error (FDE), which omit many features, making them poor self-driving performance indicators. Since high-fidelity simulations and track testing can be resource-intensive, the use of prediction metrics better correlated with full-system behavior allows for swifter iteration cycles. In this paper, we offer a conceptual framework for prediction evaluation highly specific to self-driving. We propose two complementary metrics that quantify the effects of motion prediction on safety (related to recall) and comfort (related to precision). Using a simulator, we demonstrate that our safety metric has a significantly better signal-to-noise ratio than displacement error in identifying unsafe events.