Self-distillation has emerged as a promising technique for improving model performance in modern machine learning systems. We develop the statistical foundations of self-distillation in spiked covariance models, by introducing and analyzing a broad class of estimators, namely spectral shrinkage estimators. We establish that for spiked covariance matrices with $s$ spikes, $s$-step self-distillation achieves optimal performance among spectral shrinkage estimators, outperforming well-known estimators in statistics and machine learning. Moreover, we show that $s$ steps are necessary for optimality: any $(s-k)$-step distilled estimator is strictly suboptimal for $1 \leq k \leq s$. For the special subclass of isotropic covariances, we show that optimally tuned Ridge regression performs best among spectral shrinkage estimators. We also study a federated approach where multiple data centers share spectral shrinkage estimators and a common server seeks to aggregate them to achieve optimal performance. In this case, we find that the best local rule again takes the form of self-distillation, though it differs from the optimal rule when data are hosted centrally on a single server. Together, our results elucidate why self-distillation improves predictive performance and provide a broader statistical framework connecting it with classical shrinkage-based methods.

We develop a unified theoretical framework for data-free one-step sampling from unnormalized target distributions based on Wasserstein gradient flows. For a broad class of standard f-divergence objectives, we show that the induced velocity field admits the universal form $\mathbf{V}(x)=w(r(x))\,β(x)$, where $β(x)=\nabla \log (p(x)/q(x))$ is shared across objectives and $w$ is determined solely by the choice of divergence. This decomposition shows that standard f-divergence drifts share the same asymptotic target distribution $p$ and differ primarily in how they redistribute transient repair effort across under-covered regions. To formalize this distinction, we derive a one-step regional-response theory for a soft under-coverage functional and obtain a compression--elasticity identity that links divergence choice to the geometry of mass transport into under-covered regions. We further extend the framework beyond the f-divergence family to the Log-Variance (LV) divergence, analyze how the reference distribution alters the resulting drift structure, and motivate a practical LV-inspired surrogate for data-free training. Based on this theory, we instantiate the framework with a KDE-based implementation and describe a complementary normalizing-flow route, enabling one-step inference after training. Experiments on multimodal Gaussian-mixture benchmarks are consistent with the theoretical predictions and demonstrate effective one-step sampling on these targets.

Modern generative models have emerged as a powerful Diffusion-based generative models increasingly paradigm for learning complex, high-dimensional data distributions. In particular, diffusion models (Ho et al., 2020; rely on inference-time guidance, adding a drift Sohl-Dickstein et al., 2015; Song and Ermon, 2019; Song term or reweighting mixture of experts, to imet al., 2020) and flow-based methods (Zhang et al., 2018a; prove sample quality on task-specific objectives. However, most existing techniques reLipman et al., 2022; Albergo and Vanden-Eijnden, 2022; Liu quire repeated score or gradient evaluations, inet al., 2022) provide a principled and scalable framework for generative modeling, achieving state-of-the-art performance troducing bias, high computational overhead, or across diverse applications, including video generation (Ho both. We introduce URGE, approximation-free et al., 2022), protein design (Gruver et al., 2023), and largeResampling via Girsanov Estimation, a derivativefree inference-time scaling algorithm that perscale text generation (Li et al., 2022; Nie et al., 2025). A forms pathwise importance reweighting via a Girunifying perspective underlying these approaches is their formulation in terms of stochastic differential equations sanov change of measure.

We study distribution-free predictive inference for data with group symmetries, aiming to establish near-conditional coverage guarantees beyond exchangeability for structured data. While many predictive inference methods achieve a target coverage level, most provide marginal coverage. In practice, conditional predictive inference is often preferred, as it quantifies uncertainty for black-box predictions given observed attributes, thereby accommodating heterogeneity. Although many efforts have pursued efficient conditional coverage, existing methods rely on the i.i.d. or exchangeable assumption, often violated in structured settings such as networks, clusters, and imaging data. Recently, SymmPI introduced a unified approach to predictive inference under group symmetries beyond exchangeability; nevertheless, its guarantees remain marginal and do not account for population heterogeneity. To bridge this gap, we introduce C-SymmPI, a framework that achieves near-conditional coverage under general data structures with group symmetries, extending beyond exchangeability to cover networks, cluster-level data, and related structures. Inspired by relaxed multi-accuracy, our approach reformulates conditional coverage as miscoverage error over a user-specified function class. We establish theoretical guarantees under distributional invariance and distribution shift, and derive convergence rates for linear and RKHS function classes, recovering state-of-the-art results in the exchangeable setting as special cases. For computational efficiency, we develop two variants: a projection-based algorithm for high-dimensional observations, and a sampling-based algorithm for large or infinite groups. We demonstrate effectiveness on hierarchical and network data. Empirical results show that C-SymmPI delivers more informative and stable conditional coverage with improved accuracy compared to existing methods.

Training data attribution (TDA) should enable generative model interpretability and foster a variety of related downstream tasks. Nonetheless, current TDA approaches lack reliability and robustness, preventing their adoption in real-world setups. In this paper, we take a decisive step towards more reliable and robust TDA for diffusion models. We propose to perform TDA with mirrored unlearning and noise-consistent skew (MUCS). The idea is to fine-tune a second model with bounded mirrored gradient ascent, and to measure the normalized skew of this model with respect to the original one using consistent noise samples. We show that, while being conceptually simple and generic, MUCS systematically outperforms existing methods on three different datasets by a large margin. We additionally study the effect that core design choices have on final performance, and analyze novel aspects regarding the overlap of influential instances across generated items and the potential of ensembling TDA approaches. We believe that our findings may have broader implications for more general unlearning setups, as well as for tasks requiring the comparison of diffusion losses.

We study the minimization of non-convex functionals over the Wasserstein space. While recent work has showed that perturbed Wasserstein gradient methods can avoid saddle points for benign landscapes, existing approaches remain essentially first-order and do not provide fast local convergence once the iterates enter a neighborhood of a global minimizer. We propose Wasserstein Saddle-Free Newton (WSFN), a second-order method that preconditions the Wasserstein gradient by a regularized square root of the squared Wasserstein Hessian. This construction preserves attraction toward directions of positive curvature while inducing repulsion along directions of negative curvature, thereby overcoming the tendency of standard Wasserstein Newton dynamics to be attracted to saddles. We also establish second-order sufficient optimality conditions on Wasserstein space for strict local minimality. Under regularity and benign landscape assumptions, we prove that WSFN escapes saddle regions and reaches an $α$-neighborhood of a global minimizer in polynomial time, with improved dependence on saddle parameters compared with prior perturbed first-order methods. Once inside this neighborhood, we show that WSFN converges linearly in $L^2$-Wasserstein distance to a non-degenerate global minimizer. Finally, we present a particle-based implementation of the method.

Many real-world combinatorial problems involve uncertain parameters, which can be predicted given contextual features and historical data. These `predict-then-optimize' or `contextual optimization' problems have gained significant attention: end-to-end training methods can now minimize the downstream task cost rather than the predictive error. However, despite their effectiveness, these decision-focused learning (DFL) approaches often rely on repeated solving of the underlying combinatorial optimization problem during training, making them computationally expensive and difficult to scale. We reframe the learning problem as a cost-sensitive multi-output regression problem: multi-output due to the combinatorial problem having multiple uncertain parameters, and cost-sensitive due to the downstream task cost being the real target. Our technical contribution is the formalization of multiple loss function components that follow from this reframing: cost-insensitive normalization, decision-aware asymmetric penalization of over- and underpredictions, and instance-based costs that mimic the true downstream task-based loss locally. These components require zero or one solve per training data instance, while requiring no further solves during training. Experiments show that the combination of loss components achieves comparable downstream task quality to the state of the art, while being significantly more efficient, enabling scaling to problem sizes that have not been tackled before with DFL.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for safety-critical domains like healthcare, yet it is rarely evaluated under realistic out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions. Here, we assessed predictive performance and uncertainty reliability for deep learning-based blood pressure (BP) estimation from photoplethysmography (PPG) signals under both in-distribution (ID) and OOD settings. Using an XResNet1D-50 trained on PulseDB and tested on four external datasets, we compared deep ensembles (DE) and Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) with Gaussian negative log-likelihood (GNLL) and mean squared error (MSE) losses, optionally followed by post-hoc recalibration via conformal prediction (CP), temperature scaling (TS), and isotonic regression (IR). The key findings of our study are as follows: (1) DE provides stronger predictive robustness under domain shift than MCD, an advantage that becomes clear primarily under external shift. (2) Recalibrated GNLL-based methods yield the best uncertainty calibration (e.g., GNLL+DE+CP for systolic blood pressure (SBP), GNLL+DE+TS for diastolic blood pressure (DBP)), while MSE-based uncertainty requires recalibration to become practically useful. (3) Across settings, CP and TS offer the most consistent gains, with IR remaining competitive in several cases. Overall, our results identify DE-based methods as most robust for predictive performance under domain shift, GNLL as strongest for native UQ, and recalibration as essential for making MSE-based uncertainty practical. These findings highlight the need to jointly assess predictive accuracy and calibration on external data for trustworthy cuffless BP estimation

We propose a data-driven Fourier-trained neural-network method for estimating fixed-horizon probability densities from empirical characteristic-function (CF) information. The estimator is a positive Gaussian--Laplace mixture with closed-form CF, so training can be performed directly in Fourier space while preserving nonnegativity and unit mass. We consider two sampling settings. In the direct i.i.d. sampling setting, the method is trained against an empirical CF constructed from i.i.d. samples. In the resampling-based pseudo-sampling setting, it is trained against an empirical pseudo-CF constructed from dependent data by resampling. For the direct i.i.d. case, we derive an expected $L_2$ error bound that separates Fourier truncation, empirical training error, discretization, and CF sampling error. For the pseudo-sampling case, we obtain a conditional analogue with two additional pseudo-law discrepancy terms. We develop a multidimensional extension of the framework and analyze its computational complexity. Numerical experiments show competitive performance relative to Expectation--Maximization on Gaussian-mixture benchmarks, clear gains on heavy-tailed targets, $L_2$ error decay consistent with the theory in a well-specified setting, and effective estimation of one-year Australian equity return law from resampled dependent data.

Highly over-parameterized models can simultaneously memorize noisy labels and generalize well, yet how these behaviors coexist remains poorly understood. In this work, we investigate the underlying mechanisms of this coexistence using modular arithmetic tasks under heavy label noise. Through extensive experiments on two-layer neural networks, we find that larger models tend to generalize better under appropriate optimization and model configurations, while noisy labels are memorized faster than clean data. Over-parameterized models internally form a generalization structure, but its expression in the output is suppressed by the need to fit noisy labels. Remarkably, even with 80\% label noise, near-perfect test accuracy can be achieved by extracting this internal structure using frequency-based methods. We further propose a task-agnostic method to partition networks into generalization and memorization components. Although this subnetwork improves generalization, it is limited compared with frequency-based extraction, indicating that the generalization structure is distributed across neurons and motivating the development of new tools to retrieve generalizable knowledge from over-parameterized networks.