# Systems & Languages

### Loop Series and Bethe Variational Bounds in Attractive Graphical Models

Variational methods are frequently used to approximate or bound the partition or likelihood function of a Markov random field. Methods based on mean field theory are guaranteed to provide lower bounds, whereas certain types of convex relaxations provide upper bounds. In general, loopy belief propagation (BP) provides (often accurate) approximations, but not bounds. We prove that for a class of attractive binary models, the value specified by any fixed point of loopy BP always provides a lower bound on the true likelihood. Empirically, this bound is much better than the naive mean field bound, and requires no further work than running BP.

### Kernel Embeddings of Latent Tree Graphical Models

Latent tree graphical models are natural tools for expressing long range and hierarchical dependencies among many variables which are common in computer vision, bioinformatics and natural language processing problems. However, existing models are largely restricted to discrete and Gaussian variables due to computational constraints; furthermore, algorithms for estimating the latent tree structure and learning the model parameters are largely restricted to heuristic local search. We present a method based on kernel embeddings of distributions for latent tree graphical models with continuous and non-Gaussian variables. Our method can recover the latent tree structures with provable guarantees and perform local-minimum free parameter learning and efficient inference. Experiments on simulated and real data show the advantage of our proposed approach.

### On Learning Discrete Graphical Models using Greedy Methods

In this paper, we address the problem of learning the structure of a pairwise graphical model from samples in a high-dimensional setting. Our first main result studies the sparsistency, or consistency in sparsity pattern recovery, properties of a forward-backward greedy algorithm as applied to general statistical models. As a special case, we then apply this algorithm to learn the structure of a discrete graphical model via neighborhood estimation. As a corollary of our general result, we derive sufficient conditions on the number of samples n, the maximum node-degree d and the problem size p, as well as other conditions on the model parameters, so that the algorithm recovers all the edges with high probability. Our result guarantees graph selection for samples scaling as n Omega(d log(p)), in contrast to existing convex-optimization based algorithms that require a sample complexity of Omega(d 2 log(p)).

### Localizing Bugs in Program Executions with Graphical Models

We devise a graphical model that supports the process of debugging software by guiding developers to code that is likely to contain defects. The model is trained using execution traces of passing test runs; it reflects the distribution over transitional patterns of code positions. Given a failing test case, the model determines the least likely transitional pattern in the execution trace. The model is designed such that Bayesian inference has a closed-form solution. We evaluate the Bernoulli graph model on data of the software projects AspectJ and Rhino.

### Learning Mixtures of Tree Graphical Models

We consider unsupervised estimation of mixtures of discrete graphical models, where the class variable is hidden and each mixture component can have a potentially different Markov graph structure and parameters over the observed variables. We propose a novel method for estimating the mixture components with provable guarantees. Our output is a tree-mixture model which serves as a good approximation to the underlying graphical model mixture. The sample and computational requirements for our method scale as $\poly(p, r)$, for an $r$-component mixture of $p$-variate graphical models, for a wide class of models which includes tree mixtures and mixtures over bounded degree graphs. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

### Latent Graphical Model Selection: Efficient Methods for Locally Tree-like Graphs

Graphical model selection refers to the problem of estimating the unknown graph structure given observations at the nodes in the model. We consider a challenging instance of this problem when some of the nodes are latent or hidden. We characterize conditions for tractable graph estimation and develop efficient methods with provable guarantees. We consider the class of Ising models Markov on locally tree-like graphs, which are in the regime of correlation decay. We propose an efficient method for graph estimation, and establish its structural consistency when the number of samples $n$ scales as $n \Omega(\theta_{\min} {-\delta \eta(\eta 1)-2}\log p)$, where $\theta_{\min}$ is the minimum edge potential, $\delta$ is the depth (i.e., distance from a hidden node to the nearest observed nodes), and $\eta$ is a parameter which depends on the minimum and maximum node and edge potentials in the Ising model.

### Topology Constraints in Graphical Models

Graphical models are a very useful tool to describe and understand natural phenomena, from gene expression to climate change and social interactions. The topological structure of these graphs/networks is a fundamental part of the analysis, and in many cases the main goal of the study. However, little work has been done on incorporating prior topological knowledge onto the estimation of the underlying graphical models from sample data. In this work we propose extensions to the basic joint regression model for network estimation, which explicitly incorporate graph-topological constraints into the corresponding optimization approach. The first proposed extension includes an eigenvector centrality constraint, thereby promoting this important prior topological property.

### The Bethe Partition Function of Log-supermodular Graphical Models

Sudderth, Wainwright, and Willsky conjectured that the Bethe approximation corresponding to any fixed point of the belief propagation algorithm over an attractive, pairwise binary graphical model provides a lower bound on the true partition function. In this work, we resolve this conjecture in the affirmative by demonstrating that, for any graphical model with binary variables whose potential functions (not necessarily pairwise) are all log-supermodular, the Bethe partition function always lower bounds the true partition function. The proof of this result follows from a new variant of the "four functions" theorem that may be of independent interest. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

### Efficient Neural Architecture Transformation Search in Channel-Level for Object Detection

Recently, Neural Architecture Search has achieved great success in large-scale image classification. In contrast, there have been limited works focusing on architecture search for object detection, mainly because the costly ImageNet pretraining is always required for detectors. Training from scratch, as a substitute, demands more epochs to converge and brings no computation saving. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce a practical neural architecture transformation search(NATS) algorithm for object detection in this paper. Instead of searching and constructing an entire network, NATS explores the architecture space on the base of existing network and reusing its weights.

### Learning and Inference in Hilbert Space with Quantum Graphical Models

Quantum Graphical Models (QGMs) generalize classical graphical models by adopting the formalism for reasoning about uncertainty from quantum mechanics. Unlike classical graphical models, QGMs represent uncertainty with density matrices in complex Hilbert spaces. Hilbert space embeddings (HSEs) also generalize Bayesian inference in Hilbert spaces. We investigate the link between QGMs and HSEs and show that the sum rule and Bayes rule for QGMs are equivalent to the kernel sum rule in HSEs and a special case of Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression, respectively. We show that these operations can be kernelized, and use these insights to propose a Hilbert Space Embedding of Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HSE-HQMM) to model dynamics.