Uncertainty
Optimisation in Neurosymbolic Learning Systems
Neurosymbolic AI aims to integrate deep learning with symbolic AI. This integration has many promises, such as decreasing the amount of data required to train a neural network, improving the explainability and interpretability of answers given by models and verifying the correctness of trained systems. We study neurosymbolic learning, where we have both data and background knowledge expressed using symbolic languages. How do we connect the symbolic and neural components to communicate this knowledge? One option is fuzzy reasoning, which studies degrees of truth. For example, being tall is not a binary concept. Instead, probabilistic reasoning studies the probability that something is true or will happen. Our first research question studies how different forms of fuzzy reasoning combine with learning. We find surprising results like a connection to the Raven paradox stating we confirm "ravens are black" when we observe a green apple. In this study, we did not use the background knowledge when we deployed our models after training. In our second research question, we studied how to use background knowledge in deployed models. We developed a new neural network layer based on fuzzy reasoning. Probabilistic reasoning is a natural fit for neural networks, which we usually train to be probabilistic. However, they are expensive to compute and do not scale well to large tasks. In our third research question, we study how to connect probabilistic reasoning with neural networks by sampling to estimate averages, while in the final research question, we study scaling probabilistic neurosymbolic learning to much larger problems than before. Our insight is to train a neural network with synthetic data to predict the result of probabilistic reasoning.
Simulation Based Bayesian Optimization
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful method for optimizing black-box functions by combining prior knowledge with ongoing function evaluations. BO constructs a probabilistic surrogate model of the objective function given the covariates, which is in turn used to inform the selection of future evaluation points through an acquisition function. For smooth continuous search spaces, Gaussian Processes (GPs) are commonly used as the surrogate model as they offer analytical access to posterior predictive distributions, thus facilitating the computation and optimization of acquisition functions. However, in complex scenarios involving optimizations over categorical or mixed covariate spaces, GPs may not be ideal. This paper introduces Simulation Based Bayesian Optimization (SBBO) as a novel approach to optimizing acquisition functions that only requires \emph{sampling-based} access to posterior predictive distributions. SBBO allows the use of surrogate probabilistic models tailored for combinatorial spaces with discrete variables. Any Bayesian model in which posterior inference is carried out through Markov chain Monte Carlo can be selected as the surrogate model in SBBO. In applications involving combinatorial optimization, we demonstrate empirically the effectiveness of SBBO method using various choices of surrogate models.
Interventional Fairness on Partially Known Causal Graphs: A Constrained Optimization Approach
Zuo, Aoqi, Li, Yiqing, Wei, Susan, Gong, Mingming
Fair machine learning aims to prevent discrimination against individuals or sub-populations based on sensitive attributes such as gender and race. In recent years, causal inference methods have been increasingly used in fair machine learning to measure unfairness by causal effects. However, current methods assume that the true causal graph is given, which is often not true in real-world applications. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a framework for achieving causal fairness based on the notion of interventions when the true causal graph is partially known. The proposed approach involves modeling fair prediction using a Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (PDAG), specifically, a class of causal DAGs that can be learned from observational data combined with domain knowledge. The PDAG is used to measure causal fairness, and a constrained optimization problem is formulated to balance between fairness and accuracy. Results on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of this method.
Robust Multi-Modal Density Estimation
Mészáros, Anna, Schumann, Julian F., Alonso-Mora, Javier, Zgonnikov, Arkady, Kober, Jens
Development of multi-modal, probabilistic prediction models has lead to a need for comprehensive evaluation metrics. While several metrics can characterize the accuracy of machine-learned models (e.g., negative log-likelihood, Jensen-Shannon divergence), these metrics typically operate on probability densities. Applying them to purely sample-based prediction models thus requires that the underlying density function is estimated. However, common methods such as kernel density estimation (KDE) have been demonstrated to lack robustness, while more complex methods have not been evaluated in multi-modal estimation problems. In this paper, we present ROME (RObust Multi-modal density Estimator), a non-parametric approach for density estimation which addresses the challenge of estimating multi-modal, non-normal, and highly correlated distributions. ROME utilizes clustering to segment a multi-modal set of samples into multiple uni-modal ones and then combines simple KDE estimates obtained for individual clusters in a single multi-modal estimate. We compared our approach to state-of-the-art methods for density estimation as well as ablations of ROME, showing that it not only outperforms established methods but is also more robust to a variety of distributions. Our results demonstrate that ROME can overcome the issues of over-fitting and over-smoothing exhibited by other estimators, promising a more robust evaluation of probabilistic machine learning models.
Causal Layering via Conditional Entropy
Feigenbaum, Itai, Arpit, Devansh, Wang, Huan, Heinecke, Shelby, Niebles, Juan Carlos, Yao, Weiran, Xiong, Caiming, Savarese, Silvio
One important task in causal discovery is the recovery of a topological ordering of the underlying graph, which in the context of causality is an ordering of the nodes which places causes before effects. Other than the importance of such ordering in its own right, it is also highly useful for discovering the full graph [Teyssier and Koller, 2005]. A topological ordering which doesn't unnecessarily break all ties is called a layering [Tamassia, 2013]. Given a graph, repeated removal of sources or sinks yields a layering: we denote these algorithms as repeated-SOUrceRemoval (SOUR) and repeatedSInkRemoval (SIR), both are simple and probably known variants of Kahn's Algorithm [Kahn, 1962]. Of course, in causal discovery, we are not given the graph, so implementing SOUR/SIR is not straightforward. In this paper, we propose a new method for causal discovery of layerings of discrete random variables, which implements SOUR/SIR without direct access to the graph, but with access to a conditional entropy oracle for the data instead. We show that, under some assumptions, we can separate sources from non-sources and sinks from non-sinks by comparing their conditional entropy (with appropriate conditioning) to their unconditional noise entropy. Specifically, when repeatedly removing sources and conditioning on all removed variables, we show that the conditional entropy of new sources equals the conditional entropy of their noise, while the conditional entropy of non-sources is larger than the entropy of their noise.
A New Wave in Robotics: Survey on Recent mmWave Radar Applications in Robotics
Harlow, Kyle, Jang, Hyesu, Barfoot, Timothy D., Kim, Ayoung, Heckman, Christoffer
We survey the current state of millimeterwave (mmWave) radar applications in robotics with a focus on unique capabilities, and discuss future opportunities based on the state of the art. Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) mmWave radars operating in the 76--81GHz range are an appealing alternative to lidars, cameras and other sensors operating in the near visual spectrum. Radar has been made more widely available in new packaging classes, more convenient for robotics and its longer wavelengths have the ability to bypass visual clutter such as fog, dust, and smoke. We begin by covering radar principles as they relate to robotics. We then review the relevant new research across a broad spectrum of robotics applications beginning with motion estimation, localization, and mapping. We then cover object detection and classification, and then close with an analysis of current datasets and calibration techniques that provide entry points into radar research.
An attempt to generate new bridge types from latent space of generative flow
Through examples of coordinate and probability transformation between different distributions, the basic principle of normalizing flow is introduced in a simple and concise manner. From the perspective of the distribution of random variable function, the essence of probability transformation is explained, and the scaling factor Jacobian determinant of probability transformation is introduced. Treating the dataset as a sample from the population, obtaining normalizing flow is essentially through sampling surveys to statistically infer the numerical features of the population, and then the loss function is established by using the maximum likelihood estimation method. This article introduces how normalizing flow cleverly solves the two major application challenges of high-dimensional matrix determinant calculation and neural network reversible transformation. Using symmetric structured image dataset of three-span beam bridge, arch bridge, cable-stayed bridge and suspension bridge, constructing and training normalizing flow based on the Glow API in the TensorFlow Probability library. The model can smoothly transform the complex distribution of the bridge dataset into a standard normal distribution, and from the obtained latent space sampling, it can generate new bridge types that are different from the training dataset.
Counterfactual Reasoning with Probabilistic Graphical Models for Analyzing Socioecological Systems
Cabañas, Rafael, Maldonado, Ana D., Morales, María, Aguilera, Pedro A., Salmerón, Antonio
Causal and counterfactual reasoning are emerging directions in data science that allow us to reason about hypothetical scenarios. This is particularly useful in domains where experimental data are usually not available. In the context of environmental and ecological sciences, causality enables us, for example, to predict how an ecosystem would respond to hypothetical interventions. A structural causal model is a class of probabilistic graphical models for causality, which, due to its intuitive nature, can be easily understood by experts in multiple fields. However, certain queries, called unidentifiable, cannot be calculated in an exact and precise manner. This paper proposes applying a novel and recent technique for bounding unidentifiable queries within the domain of socioecological systems. Our findings indicate that traditional statistical analysis, including probabilistic graphical models, can identify the influence between variables. However, such methods do not offer insights into the nature of the relationship, specifically whether it involves necessity or sufficiency. This is where counterfactual reasoning becomes valuable.
Probabilistic Truly Unordered Rule Sets
Yang, Lincen, van Leeuwen, Matthijs
Rule set learning has recently been frequently revisited because of its interpretability. Existing methods have several shortcomings though. First, most existing methods impose orders among rules, either explicitly or implicitly, which makes the models less comprehensible. Second, due to the difficulty of handling conflicts caused by overlaps (i.e., instances covered by multiple rules), existing methods often do not consider probabilistic rules. Third, learning classification rules for multi-class target is understudied, as most existing methods focus on binary classification or multi-class classification via the ``one-versus-rest" approach. To address these shortcomings, we propose TURS, for Truly Unordered Rule Sets. To resolve conflicts caused by overlapping rules, we propose a novel model that exploits the probabilistic properties of our rule sets, with the intuition of only allowing rules to overlap if they have similar probabilistic outputs. We next formalize the problem of learning a TURS model based on the MDL principle and develop a carefully designed heuristic algorithm. We benchmark against a wide range of rule-based methods and demonstrate that our method learns rule sets that have lower model complexity and highly competitive predictive performance. In addition, we empirically show that rules in our model are empirically ``independent" and hence truly unordered.
Granular-ball computing: an efficient, robust, and interpretable adaptive multi-granularity representation and computation method
Xia, Shuyin, Wang, Guoyin, Gao, Xinbo, Lian, Xiaoyu
Human cognition operates on a "Global-first" cognitive mechanism, prioritizing information processing based on coarse-grained details. This mechanism inherently possesses an adaptive multi-granularity description capacity, resulting in computational traits such as efficiency, robustness, and interpretability. The analysis pattern reliance on the finest granularity and single-granularity makes most existing computational methods less efficient, robust, and interpretable, which is an important reason for the current lack of interpretability in neural networks. Multi-granularity granular-ball computing employs granular-balls of varying sizes to daptively represent and envelop the sample space, facilitating learning based on these granular-balls. Given that the number of coarse-grained "granular-balls" is fewer than sample points, granular-ball computing proves more efficient. Moreover, the inherent coarse-grained nature of granular-balls reduces susceptibility to fine-grained sample disturbances, enhancing robustness. The multi-granularity construct of granular-balls generates topological structures and coarse-grained descriptions, naturally augmenting interpretability. Granular-ball computing has successfully ventured into diverse AI domains, fostering the development of innovative theoretical methods, including granular-ball classifiers, clustering techniques, neural networks, rough sets, and evolutionary computing. This has notably ameliorated the efficiency, noise robustness, and interpretability of traditional methods. Overall, granular-ball computing is a rare and innovative theoretical approach in AI that can adaptively and simultaneously enhance efficiency, robustness, and interpretability. This article delves into the main application landscapes for granular-ball computing, aiming to equip future researchers with references and insights to refine and expand this promising theory.