Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are highly flexible predictive models. However, reliably quantifying uncertainty for their predictions is a continuing challenge. There has been much recent work on "recalibration" of predictive distributions for ANNs, so that forecast probabilities for events of interest are consistent with certain frequency evaluations of them. Uncalibrated probabilistic forecasts are of limited use for many important decision-making tasks. To address this issue, we propose a localized recalibration of ANN predictive distributions using the dimension-reduced representation of the input provided by the ANN hidden layers. Our novel method draws inspiration from recalibration techniques used in the literature on approximate Bayesian computation and likelihood-free inference methods. Most existing calibration methods for ANNs can be thought of as calibrating either on the input layer, which is difficult when the input is high-dimensional, or the output layer, which may not be sufficiently flexible. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that our method has good performance compared to alternative approaches, and explore the benefits that can be achieved by localizing the calibration based on different layers of the network. Finally, we apply our proposed method to a diamond price prediction problem, demonstrating the potential of our approach to improve prediction and uncertainty quantification in real-world applications.

We present a first study of Bayesian forecasting of electricity prices traded on the German continuous intraday market which fully incorporates parameter uncertainty. Our target variable is the IDFull price index, forecasts are given in terms of posterior predictive distributions. For validation we use the exceedingly volatile electricity prices of 2022, which have hardly been the subject of forecasting studies before. As a benchmark model, we use all available intraday transactions at the time of forecast creation to compute a current value for the IDFull. According to the weak-form efficiency hypothesis, it would not be possible to significantly improve this benchmark built from last price information. We do, however, observe statistically significant improvement in terms of both point measures and probability scores. Finally, we challenge the declared gold standard of using LASSO for feature selection in electricity price forecasting by presenting strong statistical evidence that Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) leads to better forecasting performance.

Soft set theory serves as a mathematical framework for handling uncertain information, and hesitant fuzzy sets find extensive application in scenarios involving uncertainty and hesitation. Hesitant fuzzy sets exhibit diverse membership degrees, giving rise to various forms of inclusion relationships among them. This article introduces the notions of hesitant fuzzy soft $\beta$-coverings and hesitant fuzzy soft $\beta$-neighborhoods, which are formulated based on distinct forms of inclusion relationships among hesitancy fuzzy sets. Subsequently, several associated properties are investigated. Additionally, specific variations of hesitant fuzzy soft $\beta$-coverings are introduced by incorporating hesitant fuzzy rough sets, followed by an exploration of properties pertaining to hesitant fuzzy soft $\beta$-covering approximation spaces.

In this paper, we give the concept of Globular T-Spherical Fuzzy (G-TSF) Sets (G-TSFSs) as an innovative extension of T-Spherical Fuzzy Sets (TSFSs) and Circular Spherical Fuzzy Sets (C-SFSs). G-TSFSs represent membership, indeterminacy, and non-membership degrees using a globular/sphere bound that can offer a more accurate portrayal of vague, ambiguous, and imprecise information. By employing a structured representation of data points on a sphere with a specific center and radius, this model enhances decision-making processes by enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of objects within a flexible region. Following the newly defined G-TSFSs, we establish some basic set operations and introduce fundamental algebraic operations for G-TSF Values (G-TSFVs). These operations expand the evaluative capabilities of decision-makers, facilitating more sensitive decision-making processes in a broader region. To quantify a similarity measure (SM) between GTSFVs, the SM is defined based on the radius of G-TSFSs. Additionally, Hamming distance and Euclidean distance are introduced for G-TSFSs. We also present theorems and examples to elucidate computational mechanisms. Furthermore, we give the G-TSF Weighted Average (G-TSFWA) and G-TSF Weighted Geometric (G-TSFWG) operators. Leveraging our proposed SM, a Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making (MCGDM) scheme for G-TSFSs, named G-TSF MCGDM (G-TSFMCGDM), is developed to address group decision-making problems. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed G-TSFMCGDM method are demonstrated by applying it to solve the selection problem of the best venue for professional development training sessions in a firm. The analysis results affirm the suitability and utility of the proposed method for resolving MCGDM problems, establishing its effectiveness in practical decision-making scenarios.

Many practical problems involve estimating low dimensional statistical quantities with high-dimensional models and datasets. Several approaches address these estimation tasks based on the theory of influence functions, such as debiased/double ML or targeted minimum loss estimation. This paper introduces \textit{Monte Carlo Efficient Influence Functions} (MC-EIF), a fully automated technique for approximating efficient influence functions that integrates seamlessly with existing differentiable probabilistic programming systems. MC-EIF automates efficient statistical estimation for a broad class of models and target functionals that would previously require rigorous custom analysis. We prove that MC-EIF is consistent, and that estimators using MC-EIF achieve optimal $\sqrt{N}$ convergence rates. We show empirically that estimators using MC-EIF are at parity with estimators using analytic EIFs. Finally, we demonstrate a novel capstone example using MC-EIF for optimal portfolio selection.

Understanding causal relationships between variables is a fundamental problem with broad impact in numerous scientific fields. While extensive research has been dedicated to learning causal graphs from data, its complementary concept of testing causal relationships has remained largely unexplored. While learning involves the task of recovering the Markov equivalence class (MEC) of the underlying causal graph from observational data, the testing counterpart addresses the following critical question: Given a specific MEC and observational data from some causal graph, can we determine if the data-generating causal graph belongs to the given MEC? We explore constraint-based testing methods by establishing bounds on the required number of conditional independence tests. Our bounds are in terms of the size of the maximum undirected clique ($s$) of the given MEC. In the worst case, we show a lower bound of $\exp(\Omega(s))$ independence tests. We then give an algorithm that resolves the task with $\exp(O(s))$ tests, matching our lower bound. Compared to the learning problem, where algorithms often use a number of independence tests that is exponential in the maximum in-degree, this shows that testing is relatively easier. In particular, it requires exponentially less independence tests in graphs featuring high in-degrees and small clique sizes. Additionally, using the DAG associahedron, we provide a geometric interpretation of testing versus learning and discuss how our testing result can aid learning.

Despite the frequent use of agent-based models (ABMs) for studying social phenomena, parameter estimation remains a challenge, often relying on costly simulation-based heuristics. This work uses variational inference to estimate the parameters of an opinion dynamics ABM, by transforming the estimation problem into an optimization task that can be solved directly. Our proposal relies on probabilistic generative ABMs (PGABMs): we start by synthesizing a probabilistic generative model from the ABM rules. Then, we transform the inference process into an optimization problem suitable for automatic differentiation. In particular, we use the Gumbel-Softmax reparameterization for categorical agent attributes and stochastic variational inference for parameter estimation. Furthermore, we explore the trade-offs of using variational distributions with different complexity: normal distributions and normalizing flows. We validate our method on a bounded confidence model with agent roles (leaders and followers). Our approach estimates both macroscopic (bounded confidence intervals and backfire thresholds) and microscopic ($200$ categorical, agent-level roles) more accurately than simulation-based and MCMC methods. Consequently, our technique enables experts to tune and validate their ABMs against real-world observations, thus providing insights into human behavior in social systems via data-driven analysis.

Radar Automated Target Recognition (RATR) for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) involves transmitting Electromagnetic Waves (EMWs) and performing target type recognition on the received radar echo, crucial for defense and aerospace applications. Previous studies highlighted the advantages of multistatic radar configurations over monostatic ones in RATR. However, fusion methods in multistatic radar configurations often suboptimally combine classification vectors from individual radars probabilistically. To address this, we propose a fully Bayesian RATR framework employing Optimal Bayesian Fusion (OBF) to aggregate classification probability vectors from multiple radars. OBF, based on expected 0-1 loss, updates a Recursive Bayesian Classification (RBC) posterior distribution for target UAV type, conditioned on historical observations across multiple time steps. We evaluate the approach using simulated random walk trajectories for seven drones, correlating target aspect angles to Radar Cross Section (RCS) measurements in an anechoic chamber. Comparing against single radar Automated Target Recognition (ATR) systems and suboptimal fusion methods, our empirical results demonstrate that the OBF method integrated with RBC significantly enhances classification accuracy compared to other fusion methods and single radar configurations.

The lack of an efficient preamble detection algorithm remains a challenge for solving preamble collision problems in intelligent massive random access (RA) in practical communication scenarios. To solve this problem, we present a novel early preamble detection scheme based on a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) model at the first step of the grant-based RA procedure. A novel blind normalized Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD)-based detector is proposed to obtain an approximate solution to the MLE model. First, by exploring the relationship between the Hadamard transform and wavelet transform, a new modified Hadamard transform (MHT) is developed to separate high-frequencies from important components using the second-order derivative filter. Next, to eliminate noise and mitigate the vanishing gradients problem in the SVGD-based detectors, the block MHT layer is designed based on the MHT, scaling layer, soft-thresholding layer, inverse MHT and sparsity penalty. Then, the blind normalized SVGD algorithm is derived to perform preamble detection without prior knowledge of noise power and the number of active devices. The experimental results show the proposed block MHT layer outperforms other transform-based methods in terms of computation costs and denoising performance. Furthermore, with the assistance of the block MHT layer, the proposed blind normalized SVGD algorithm achieves a higher preamble detection accuracy and throughput than other state-of-the-art detection methods.

Interpretability is the next frontier in machine learning research. In the search for white box models - as opposed to black box models, like random forests or neural networks - rule induction algorithms are a logical and promising option, since the rules can easily be understood by humans. Fuzzy and rough set theory have been successfully applied to this archetype, almost always separately. As both approaches to rule induction involve granular computing based on the concept of equivalence classes, it is natural to combine them. The QuickRules\cite{JensenCornelis2009} algorithm was a first attempt at using fuzzy rough set theory for rule induction. It is based on QuickReduct, a greedy algorithm for building decision reducts. QuickRules already showed an improvement over other rule induction methods. However, to evaluate the full potential of a fuzzy rough rule induction algorithm, one needs to start from the foundations. In this paper, we introduce a novel rule induction algorithm called Fuzzy Rough Rule Induction (FRRI). We provide background and explain the workings of our algorithm. Furthermore, we perform a computational experiment to evaluate the performance of our algorithm and compare it to other state-of-the-art rule induction approaches. We find that our algorithm is more accurate while creating small rulesets consisting of relatively short rules. We end the paper by outlining some directions for future work.