With the advancement in generative language models, the selection of prompts has gained significant attention in recent years. A prompt is an instruction or description provided by the user, serving as a guide for the generative language model in content generation. Despite existing methods for prompt selection that are based on human labor, we consider facilitating this selection through simulation optimization, aiming to maximize a pre-defined score for the selected prompt. Specifically, we propose a two-stage framework. In the first stage, we determine a feasible set of prompts in sufficient numbers, where each prompt is represented by a moderate-dimensional vector. In the subsequent stage for evaluation and selection, we construct a surrogate model of the score regarding the moderate-dimensional vectors that represent the prompts. We propose sequentially selecting the prompt for evaluation based on this constructed surrogate model. We prove the consistency of the sequential evaluation procedure in our framework. We also conduct numerical experiments to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed framework, providing practical instructions for implementation.

Determining which parameters of a non-linear model could best describe a set of experimental data is a fundamental problem in science and it has gained much traction lately with the rise of complex large-scale simulators (a.k.a. black-box simulators). The likelihood of such models is typically intractable, which is why classical MCMC methods can not be used. Simulation-based inference (SBI) stands out in this context by only requiring a dataset of simulations to train deep generative models capable of approximating the posterior distribution that relates input parameters to a given observation. In this work, we consider a tall data extension in which multiple observations are available and one wishes to leverage their shared information to better infer the parameters of the model. The method we propose is built upon recent developments from the flourishing score-based diffusion literature and allows us to estimate the tall data posterior distribution simply using information from the score network trained on individual observations. We compare our method to recently proposed competing approaches on various numerical experiments and demonstrate its superiority in terms of numerical stability and computational cost.

We study the problem of online sequential decision-making given auxiliary demonstrations from experts who made their decisions based on unobserved contextual information. These demonstrations can be viewed as solving related but slightly different tasks than what the learner faces. This setting arises in many application domains, such as self-driving cars, healthcare, and finance, where expert demonstrations are made using contextual information, which is not recorded in the data available to the learning agent. We model the problem as a zero-shot meta-reinforcement learning setting with an unknown task distribution and a Bayesian regret minimization objective, where the unobserved tasks are encoded as parameters with an unknown prior. We propose the Experts-as-Priors algorithm (ExPerior), a non-parametric empirical Bayes approach that utilizes the principle of maximum entropy to establish an informative prior over the learner's decision-making problem. This prior enables the application of any Bayesian approach for online decision-making, such as posterior sampling. We demonstrate that our strategy surpasses existing behaviour cloning and online algorithms for multi-armed bandits and reinforcement learning, showcasing the utility of our approach in leveraging expert demonstrations across different decision-making setups.

This work presents a framework for automatically extracting physical object properties, such as material composition, mass, volume, and stiffness, through robot manipulation and a database of object measurements. The framework involves exploratory action selection to maximize learning about objects on a table. A Bayesian network models conditional dependencies between object properties, incorporating prior probability distributions and uncertainty associated with measurement actions. The algorithm selects optimal exploratory actions based on expected information gain and updates object properties through Bayesian inference. Experimental evaluation demonstrates effective action selection compared to a baseline and correct termination of the experiments if there is nothing more to be learned. The algorithm proved to behave intelligently when presented with trick objects with material properties in conflict with their appearance. The robot pipeline integrates with a logging module and an online database of objects, containing over 24,000 measurements of 63 objects with different grippers. All code and data are publicly available, facilitating automatic digitization of objects and their physical properties through exploratory manipulations.

Preference modelling lies at the intersection of economics, decision theory, machine learning and statistics. By understanding individuals' preferences and how they make choices, we can build products that closely match their expectations, paving the way for more efficient and personalised applications across a wide range of domains. The objective of this tutorial is to present a cohesive and comprehensive framework for preference learning with Gaussian Processes (GPs), demonstrating how to seamlessly incorporate rationality principles (from economics and decision theory) into the learning process. By suitably tailoring the likelihood function, this framework enables the construction of preference learning models that encompass random utility models, limits of discernment, and scenarios with multiple conflicting utilities for both object- and label-preference. This tutorial builds upon established research while simultaneously introducing some novel GP-based models to address specific gaps in the existing literature.

The von Mises-Fisher distribution as an exponential family can be expressed in terms of either its natural or its mean parameters. Unfortunately, however, the normalization function for the distribution in terms of its mean parameters is not available in closed form, limiting the practicality of the mean parametrization and complicating maximum-likelihood estimation more generally. We derive a second-order ordinary differential equation, the solution to which yields the mean-parameter normalizer along with its first two derivatives, as well as the variance function of the family. We also provide closed-form approximations to the solution of the differential equation. This allows rapid evaluation of both densities and natural parameters in terms of mean parameters. We show applications to topic modeling with mixtures of von Mises-Fisher distributions using Bregman Clustering.

Although current semi-supervised medical segmentation methods can achieve decent performance, they are still affected by the uncertainty in unlabeled data and model predictions, and there is currently a lack of effective strategies that can explore the uncertain aspects of both simultaneously. To address the aforementioned issues, we propose Evidential Prototype Learning (EPL), which utilizes an extended probabilistic framework to effectively fuse voxel probability predictions from different sources and achieves prototype fusion utilization of labeled and unlabeled data under a generalized evidential framework, leveraging voxel-level dual uncertainty masking. The uncertainty not only enables the model to self-correct predictions but also improves the guided learning process with pseudo-labels and is able to feed back into the construction of hidden features. The method proposed in this paper has been experimented on LA, Pancreas-CT and TBAD datasets, achieving the state-of-the-art performance in three different labeled ratios, which strongly demonstrates the effectiveness of our strategy.

The unit selection problem aims to find objects, called units, that optimize a causal objective function which describes the objects' behavior in a causal context (e.g., selecting customers who are about to churn but would most likely change their mind if encouraged). While early studies focused mainly on bounding a specific class of counterfactual objective functions using data, more recent work allows one to find optimal units exactly by reducing the causal objective to a classical objective on a meta-model, and then applying a variant of the classical Variable Elimination (VE) algorithm to the meta-model -- assuming a fully specified causal model is available. In practice, however, finding optimal units using this approach can be very expensive because the used VE algorithm must be exponential in the constrained treewidth of the meta-model, which is larger and denser than the original model. We address this computational challenge by introducing a new approach for unit selection that is not necessarily limited by the constrained treewidth. This is done through compiling the meta-model into a special class of tractable arithmetic circuits that allows the computation of optimal units in time linear in the circuit size. We finally present empirical results on random causal models that show order-of-magnitude speedups based on the proposed method for solving unit selection.

Unsupervised learning is a training approach in the situation where ground truth data is unavailable, such as inverse imaging problems. We present an unsupervised Bayesian training approach to learning convex neural network regularizers using a fixed noisy dataset, based on a dual Markov chain estimation method. Compared to classical supervised adversarial regularization methods, where there is access to both clean images as well as unlimited to noisy copies, we demonstrate close performance on natural image Gaussian deconvolution and Poisson denoising tasks.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a fundamental model for decision making under uncertainty. They exhibit non-deterministic choice as well as probabilistic uncertainty. Traditionally, verification algorithms assume exact knowledge of the probabilities that govern the behaviour of an MDP. As this assumption is often unrealistic in practice, statistical model checking (SMC) was developed in the past two decades. It allows to analyse MDPs with unknown transition probabilities and provide probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees on the result. Model-based SMC algorithms sample the MDP and build a model of it by estimating all transition probabilities, essentially for every transition answering the question: ``What are the odds?'' However, so far the statistical methods employed by the state of the art SMC algorithms are quite naive. Our contribution are several fundamental improvements to those methods: On the one hand, we survey statistics literature for better concentration inequalities; on the other hand, we propose specialised approaches that exploit our knowledge of the MDP. Our improvements are generally applicable to many kinds of problem statements because they are largely independent of the setting. Moreover, our experimental evaluation shows that they lead to significant gains, reducing the number of samples that the SMC algorithm has to collect by up to two orders of magnitude.