Geological Carbon Storage GCS is arguably the only scalable net-negative CO2 emission technology available While promising subsurface complexities and heterogeneity of reservoir properties demand a systematic approach to quantify uncertainty when optimizing production and mitigating storage risks which include assurances of Containment and Conformance of injected supercritical CO2 As a first step towards the design and implementation of a Digital Twin for monitoring underground storage operations a machine learning based data-assimilation framework is introduced and validated on carefully designed realistic numerical simulations As our implementation is based on Bayesian inference but does not yet support control and decision-making we coin our approach an uncertainty-aware Digital Shadow To characterize the posterior distribution for the state of CO2 plumes conditioned on multi-modal time-lapse data the envisioned Shadow combines techniques from Simulation-Based Inference SBI and Ensemble Bayesian Filtering to establish probabilistic baselines and assimilate multi-modal data for GCS problems that are challenged by large degrees of freedom nonlinear multi-physics non-Gaussianity and computationally expensive to evaluate fluid flow and seismic simulations To enable SBI for dynamic systems a recursive scheme is proposed where the Digital Shadows neural networks are trained on simulated ensembles for their state and observed data well and/or seismic Once training is completed the systems state is inferred when time-lapse field data becomes available In this computational study we observe that a lack of knowledge on the permeability field can be factored into the Digital Shadows uncertainty quantification To our knowledge this work represents the first proof of concept of an uncertainty-aware in-principle scalable Digital Shadow.

Learning a model of a stochastic setting often involves learning both general structure rules and specific properties of the instance. This paper investigates the interplay between learning the general and the specific in various learning methods, with emphasis on sample efficiency. We design a framework called {\sc LeverWorlds}, which allows the generation of simple physics-inspired worlds that follow a similar generative process with different distributions, and their instances can be expressed in natural language. These worlds allow for controlled experiments to assess the sample complexity of different learning methods. We experiment with classic learning algorithms as well as Transformer language models, both with fine-tuning and In-Context Learning (ICL). Our general finding is that (1) Transformers generally succeed in the task; but (2) they are considerably less sample efficient than classic methods that make stronger assumptions about the structure, such as Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Logistic Regression. This finding is in tension with the recent tendency to use Transformers as general-purpose estimators. We propose an approach that leverages the ICL capabilities of contemporary language models to apply simple algorithms for this type of data. Our experiments show that models currently struggle with the task but show promising potential.

Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC) has evolved into a highly promising issue owing to the latest breakthroughs in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Human-Robot Interaction (HRI), among other reasons. This emerging growth increases the need to design multi-agent algorithms that can manage also human preferences. This paper presents an extension of the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) meta-heuristic to solve the Minimum Time Search (MTS) task, in the case where humans and robots perform an object searching task together. The proposed model consists of two main blocks. The first one is a convolutional neural network (CNN) that provides the prior probabilities about where an object may be from a segmented image. The second one is the Sub-prior MTS-ACO algorithm (SP-MTS-ACO), which takes as inputs the prior probabilities and the particular search preferences of the agents in different sub-priors to generate search plans for all agents. The model has been tested in real experiments for the joint search of an object through a Vizanti web-based visualization in a tablet computer. The designed interface allows the communication between a human and our humanoid robot named IVO. The obtained results show an improvement in the search perception of the users without loss of efficiency.

Traditional reinforcement learning often struggles to generate diverse, high-reward solutions, especially in domains like drug design and black-box function optimization. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide an alternative method of RL in candidate selection but suffer from high computational costs and limited candidate diversity exploration capabilities. In response, GFlowNet, a novel neural network architecture, was introduced to model complex system dynamics and generate diverse high-reward trajectories. To further enhance this approach, this paper proposes improvements to GFlowNet by introducing a new loss function and refining the training objective associated with sub-GFlowNet. These enhancements aim to integrate entropy and leverage network structure characteristics, improving both candidate diversity and computational efficiency. We demonstrated the superiority of the refined GFlowNet over traditional methods by empirical results from hypergrid experiments and molecule synthesis tasks. The findings underscore the effectiveness of incorporating entropy and exploiting network structure properties in solution generation in molecule synthesis as well as diverse experimental designs.

We prove that single-parameter natural exponential families with subexponential tails are self-concordant with polynomial-sized parameters. For subgaussian natural exponential families we establish an exact characterization of the growth rate of the self-concordance parameter. Applying these findings to bandits allows us to fill gaps in the literature: We show that optimistic algorithms for generalized linear bandits enjoy regret bounds that are both second-order (scale with the variance of the optimal arm's reward distribution) and free of an exponential dependence on the bound of the problem parameter in the leading term. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first regret bound for generalized linear bandits with subexponential tails, broadening the class of problems to include Poisson, exponential and gamma bandits.

Machine learning can significantly improve performance for decision-making under uncertainty in a wide range of domains. However, ensuring robustness guarantees requires well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, which can be difficult to achieve in high-capacity prediction models such as deep neural networks. Moreover, in high-dimensional settings, there may be many valid uncertainty estimates, each with their own performance profile - i.e., not all uncertainty is equally valuable for downstream decision-making. To address this problem, this paper develops an end-to-end framework to learn the uncertainty estimates for conditional robust optimization, with robustness and calibration guarantees provided by conformal prediction. In addition, we propose to represent arbitrary convex uncertainty sets with partially input-convex neural networks, which are learned as part of our framework. Our approach consistently improves upon two-stage estimate-then-optimize baselines on concrete applications in energy storage arbitrage and portfolio optimization.

Active inference is a mathematical framework for understanding how agents (biological or artificial) interact with their environments, enabling continual adaptation and decision-making. It combines Bayesian inference and free energy minimization to model perception, action, and learning in uncertain and dynamic contexts. Unlike reinforcement learning, active inference integrates exploration and exploitation seamlessly by minimizing expected free energy. In this paper, we present a continual learning framework for agents operating in discrete time environments, using active inference as the foundation. We derive the mathematical formulations of variational and expected free energy and apply them to the design of a self-learning research agent. This agent updates its beliefs and adapts its actions based on new data without manual intervention. Through experiments in changing environments, we demonstrate the agent's ability to relearn and refine its models efficiently, making it suitable for complex domains like finance and healthcare. The paper concludes by discussing how the proposed framework generalizes to other systems, positioning active inference as a flexible approach for adaptive AI.

Current efforts to detect nuclear detonations and correctly categorize explosion sources with ground- and space-collected discriminants presents challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller events (lower yield explosions) often include only sparse observations among few modalities and can therefore lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also vary significantly between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for ``classic'' ECM. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed B-ECM, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment ECM with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates with B-ECM, we compare an array of B-ECM and classic ECM models with multiple performance metrics that leverage Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our B-ECM models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and a lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. We propose future avenues to improve B-ECM that expand its decision-making and predictive capability.

Addressing multiagent decision problems in AI, especially those involving collaborative or competitive agents acting concurrently in a partially observable and stochastic environment, remains a formidable challenge. While Interactive Dynamic Influence Diagrams~(I-DIDs) have offered a promising decision framework for such problems, they encounter limitations when the subject agent encounters unknown behaviors exhibited by other agents that are not explicitly modeled within the I-DID. This can lead to sub-optimal responses from the subject agent. In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven approach that utilizes an encoder-decoder architecture, particularly a variational autoencoder, to enhance I-DID solutions. By integrating a perplexity-based tree loss function into the optimization algorithm of the variational autoencoder, coupled with the advantages of Zig-Zag One-Hot encoding and decoding, we generate potential behaviors of other agents within the I-DID that are more likely to contain their true behaviors, even from limited interactions. This new approach enables the subject agent to respond more appropriately to unknown behaviors, thus improving its decision quality. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in two well-established problem domains, highlighting its potential for handling multi-agent decision problems with unknown behaviors. This work is the first time of using neural networks based approaches to deal with the I-DID challenge in agent planning and learning problems.

Predicting human intent is challenging yet essential to achieving seamless Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC). Many existing approaches fail to fully exploit the inherent relationships between objects, tasks, and the human model. Current methods for predicting human intent, such as Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) and Conditional Random Fields (CRFs), often lack interpretability due to their failure to account for causal relationships between variables. To address these challenges, in this paper, we developed a novel Bayesian Intention (BI) framework to predict human intent within a multi-modality information framework in HRC scenarios. This framework captures the complexity of intent prediction by modeling the correlations between human behavior conventions and scene data. Our framework leverages these inferred intent predictions to optimize the robot's response in real-time, enabling smoother and more intuitive collaboration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through a HRC task involving a UR5 robot, highlighting BI's capability for real-time human intent prediction and collision avoidance using a unique dataset we created. Our evaluations show that the multi-modality BI model predicts human intent within 2.69ms, with a 36% increase in precision, a 60% increase in F1 Score, and an 85% increase in accuracy compared to its best baseline method. The results underscore BI's potential to advance real-time human intent prediction and collision avoidance, making a significant contribution to the field of HRC.