Existing methods for anomaly detection often fall short due to their inability to handle the complexity, heterogeneity, and high dimensionality inherent in real-world mobility data. In this paper, we propose DeepBayesic, a novel framework that integrates Bayesian principles with deep neural networks to model the underlying multivariate distributions from sparse and complex datasets. Unlike traditional models, DeepBayesic is designed to manage heterogeneous inputs, accommodating both continuous and categorical data to provide a more comprehensive understanding of mobility patterns. The framework features customized neural density estimators and hybrid architectures, allowing for flexibility in modeling diverse feature distributions and enabling the use of specialized neural networks tailored to different data types. Our approach also leverages agent embeddings for personalized anomaly detection, enhancing its ability to distinguish between normal and anomalous behaviors for individual agents. We evaluate our approach on several mobility datasets, demonstrating significant improvements over state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods. Our results indicate that incorporating personalization and advanced sequence modeling techniques can substantially enhance the ability to detect subtle and complex anomalies in spatiotemporal event sequences.

This study introduces a training-free conditional diffusion model for learning unknown stochastic differential equations (SDEs) using data. The proposed approach addresses key challenges in computational efficiency and accuracy for modeling SDEs by utilizing a score-based diffusion model to approximate their stochastic flow map. Unlike the existing methods, this technique is based on an analytically derived closed-form exact score function, which can be efficiently estimated by Monte Carlo method using the trajectory data, and eliminates the need for neural network training to learn the score function. By generating labeled data through solving the corresponding reverse ordinary differential equation, the approach enables supervised learning of the flow map. Extensive numerical experiments across various SDE types, including linear, nonlinear, and multi-dimensional systems, demonstrate the versatility and effectiveness of the method. The learned models exhibit significant improvements in predicting both short-term and long-term behaviors of unknown stochastic systems, often surpassing baseline methods like GANs in estimating drift and diffusion coefficients.

In-context learning (ICL) enables large language models (LLMs) to generalize to new tasks by incorporating a few in-context examples (ICEs) directly in the input, without updating parameters. However, the effectiveness of ICL heavily relies on the selection of ICEs, and conventional text-based embedding methods are often inadequate for tasks that require multi-step reasoning, such as mathematical and logical problem solving. This is due to the bias introduced by shallow semantic similarities that fail to capture the deeper reasoning structures required for these tasks. We present GraphIC, a novel approach that leverages graph-based representations of reasoning processes, coupled with Bayesian Networks (BNs) to select ICEs. Importantly, BNs capture the dependency of a node's attributes on its parent nodes, closely mirroring the hierarchical nature of human cognition--where each thought is shaped by preceding ones. This makes BNs particularly well-suited for multi-step reasoning tasks, aligning the process more closely with human-like reasoning. Extensive experiments across three types of reasoning tasks (mathematical reasoning, code generation, and logical reasoning) demonstrate that GraphIC outperforms both training-free and training-based models in selecting ICEs, excelling in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency. We show that GraphIC enhances ICL's performance and interpretability, significantly advancing ICE selection for multi-step reasoning tasks. In-context learning (ICL) (Brown et al., 2020) represents a paradigm in how large language models (LLMs) perform inference by using a small number of in-context examples (ICEs) within the input prompt. This technique enables LLMs to generalize to new tasks or enhance their performance on existing tasks without updating parameters. However, previous studies have highlighted the sensitivity of ICL performance to the specific ICEs selected (Zhao et al., 2021; Liu et al., 2022), underscoring the importance of strategic ICE selection. Consequently, numerous methods have been proposed to optimize the selection of ICEs, focusing on improving task performance and ensuring greater robustness (Liu et al., 2022; Rubin et al., 2022; Ye et al., 2023; Gupta et al., 2024).

Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of valid confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced to predicting the quantiles (in hindsight) of a sequentially revealed data sequence. Two very different approaches have been studied previously. (i) Direct approach: Assuming the data sequence is iid or exchangeable, one could maintain the empirical distribution of the observed data as an algorithmic belief, and directly predict its quantiles. (ii) Indirect approach: As statistical assumptions often do not hold in practice, a recent trend is to consider the adversarial setting and apply first-order online optimization to moving quantile losses (Gibbs & Cand\`es, 2021). It requires knowing the target quantile level beforehand, and suffers from certain validity issues on the obtained confidence sets, due to the associated loss linearization. This paper presents a novel Bayesian CP framework that combines their strengths. Without any statistical assumption, it is able to both: (i) answer multiple arbitrary confidence level queries online, with provably low regret; and (ii) overcome the validity issues suffered by first-order optimization baselines, due to being "data-centric" rather than "iterate-centric". From a technical perspective, our key idea is to regularize the algorithmic belief of the above direct approach by a Bayesian prior, which "robustifies" it by simulating a non-linearized Follow the Regularized Leader (FTRL) algorithm on the output. For statisticians, this can be regarded as an online adversarial view of Bayesian inference. Importantly, the proposed belief update backbone is shared by prediction heads targeting different confidence levels, bringing practical benefits analogous to U-calibration (Kleinberg et al., 2023).

Diffusion models have achieved great success in generating high-dimensional samples across various applications. While the theoretical guarantees for continuous-state diffusion models have been extensively studied, the convergence analysis of the discrete-state counterparts remains under-explored. In this paper, we study the theoretical aspects of score-based discrete diffusion models under the Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) framework. We introduce a discrete-time sampling algorithm in the general state space $[S]^d$ that utilizes score estimators at predefined time points. We derive convergence bounds for the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and total variation (TV) distance between the generated sample distribution and the data distribution, considering both scenarios with and without early stopping under specific assumptions. Notably, our KL divergence bounds are nearly linear in dimension $d$, aligning with state-of-the-art results for diffusion models. Our convergence analysis employs a Girsanov-based method and establishes key properties of the discrete score function, which are essential for characterizing the discrete-time sampling process.

A new model, named as deep dynamic poisson factorization model, is proposed in this paper for analyzing sequential count vectors. The model based on the Poisson Factor Analysis method captures dependence among time steps by neural networks, representing the implicit distributions. Local complicated relationship is obtained from local implicit distribution, and deep latent structure is exploited to get the long-time dependence. Variational inference on latent variables and gradient descent based on the loss functions derived from variational distribution is performed in our inference. Synthetic datasets and real-world datasets are applied to the proposed model and our results show good predicting and fitting performance with interpretable latent structure.

Learning directed acyclic graphs using both observational and interventional data is now a fundamentally important problem due to recent technological developments in genomics that generate such single-cell gene expression data at a very large scale. In order to utilize this data for learning gene regulatory networks, efficient and reliable causal inference algorithms are needed that can make use of both observational and interventional data. In this paper, we present two algorithms of this type and prove that both are consistent under the faithfulness assumption. These algorithms are interventional adaptations of the Greedy SP algorithm and are the first algorithms using both observational and interventional data with consistency guarantees. Moreover, these algorithms have the advantage that they are nonparametric, which makes them useful also for analyzing non-Gaussian data. In this paper, we present these two algorithms and their consistency guarantees, and we analyze their performance on simulated data, protein signaling data, and single-cell gene expression data.

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model.

Efficiently aggregating data from different sources is a challenging problem, particularly when samples from each source are distributed differently. These differences can be inherent to the inference task or present for other reasons: sensors in a sensor network may be placed far apart, affecting their individual measurements. Conversely, it is computationally advantageous to split Bayesian inference tasks across subsets of data, but data need not be identically distributed across subsets. One principled way to fuse probability distributions is via the lens of optimal transport: the Wasserstein barycenter is a single distribution that summarizes a collection of input measures while respecting their geometry. However, computing the barycenter scales poorly and requires discretization of all input distributions and the barycenter itself.

A hallmark of human intelligence is the ability to ask rich, creative, and revealing questions. Here we introduce a cognitive model capable of constructing humanlike questions. Our approach treats questions as formal programs that, when executed on the state of the world, output an answer. The model specifies a probability distribution over a complex, compositional space of programs, favoring concise programs that help the agent learn in the current context. We evaluate our approach by modeling the types of open-ended questions generated by humans who were attempting to learn about an ambiguous situation in a game. We find that our model predicts what questions people will ask, and can creatively produce novel questions that were not present in the training set. In addition, we compare a number of model variants, finding that both question informativeness and complexity are important for producing human-like questions.