I do still have some concerns regarding applicability, since a gold standard "ground truth" of inference is required. I do appreciate the situation described in the feedback, where one is trying to decide on some approximate algorithm to "deploy" in the wild, is actually fairly common. That is, the sort of setting where very slow MCMC can be run for a long time on training data, but on new data, where there is e.g. a real-time requirement, a faster approximate inference algorithm will be used instead. The approach is based on constructing an estimator of the "symmetric" KL divergence (i.e., the sum of the forward and reverse KL) between an approximation to the target distribution and a representation of the "true" exact target distribution. The overall approach considered is interesting, and for the most part clearly presented.

Summary The paper presents a method for assessing the uncertainty in the evaluation of an expectation over the output of a complex simulation model given uncertainty in the model parameters. Such simulation models take a long time to solve, given a set of parameters, so the task of averaging over the outputs of the simulation given uncertainty in the parameters is challenging. One cannot simply run the model so many times that error in the estimate of the integral is controlled. The authors approach the problem as an inference task. Given samples from the parameter posterior one must infer the posterior over the integral of interest.

In particular, it establishes that as long as noises are homoscedastic, then under a milder minimality/faithfulness assumptions it is possible to efficiently recover the GBN. Clarity The paper is heavy on notation, but everything is explained and organized clearly.

The paper introduces a generalization of previous variational methods for inference with jumps processes; here, the proposal approximating measure to the posterior relies on a star approximation. In application to continuous-time Bayesian networks, this means isolating clusters of nodes across children and parents, in order to build an efficient approximation to the traditional variational lower bound. The paper further presents examples and experiments that show how the proposed approach can be adapted to structure learning tasks in continuous-time settings. This is an interesting and topical contribution likely to appeal to the statistical and probabilistic community within NIPS. The paper is, in overall, well-written and reasonably well-structured. It offers a good background on previous work, helps the reader to understand its relevance and put its results in context within the existing literature.

This paper proposes a new parallel approximate sampler for high-dimensional Gaussian distributions. The algorithm is a special case of a larger class of iterative samplers based on a transition equation (2) and matrix splitting that is analysed in [9]. The algorithm is similar to the Hogwild sampler in term of the update formula and the way of bias analysing, but it is more flexible in the sense that there is a scalar parameter to trade-off the bias and variance of the proposed sampler. I appreciate the detailed introduction about the mathematical background of the family of sampling algorithms and related works. It is also easy to follow the paper and understand the merit of the proposed algorithm. The illustration of the decomposition of the variance and bias in Figure 1 gives a clear explanation about the role of \eta.

The idea: You want to do Bayesian inference on a parameter theta, with prior pi(theta) and parametric likelihood f_theta, but you're not sure if the likelihood is correctly specified. So put a nonparametric prior on the sampling distribution: a mixture of Dirichlet processes centered at f_theta with mixing distribution pi(theta). The concentration parameter of the DP provides a sliding scale between vanilla Bayesian inference (total confidence in the parametric model) and Bayesian bootstrap (no confidence at all, use the empirical distribution). This is a simple idea, but the paper presents it lucidly and compellingly, beginning with a diverse list of potential applications: the method may be viewed as regularization of a nonparametric Bayesian model towards a parametric one; as robustification of a parametric Bayesian model to misspecification; as a means of correcting a variational approximation; or as nonparametric decision theory, when the log-likelihood is swapped out for an arbitrary utility function. As for implementation, the procedure requires (1) sampling from the parametric Bayesian posterior distribution and (2) performing a p-dimensional maximization, where p is the dimension of theta.

In this paper the authors propose an efficient method for tree probability estimation (given a collection of trees) that relies on the description of trees as subsplit Bayesian networks. Through this representation, the authors relax the classic conditional clade distribution - which assumes that given their parent, sister clades are independent - and assume instead that given their parent subsplit, sister subsplits are independent, thus allowing more dependence structure on sister clades. The authors first present a simple maximum likelihood estimation algorithm for rooted trees, and then propose two alternatives to generalize their work to unrooted trees. They finally illustrate their method on both simulated and real-data experiments. I think this paper is very well written, in particular I have greatly appreciated the Background and SBN description sections that make use of a simple though not trivial example to introduce new notions and provide useful insights on the assumptions.

Multiobject tracking (MOT) is an important task in robotics, autonomous driving, and maritime surveillance. Traditional work on MOT is model-based and aims to establish algorithms in the framework of sequential Bayesian estimation. More recent methods are fully data-driven and rely on the training of neural networks. The two approaches have demonstrated advantages in certain scenarios. In particular, in problems where plenty of labeled data for the training of neural networks is available, data-driven MOT tends to have advantages compared to traditional methods. A natural thought is whether a general and efficient framework can integrate the two approaches. This paper advances a recently introduced hybrid model-based and data-driven method called neural-enhanced belief propagation (NEBP). Compared to existing work on NEBP for MOT, it introduces a novel neural architecture that can improve data association and new object initialization, two critical aspects of MOT. The proposed tracking method is leading the nuScenes LiDAR-only tracking challenge at the time of submission of this paper.

Batched Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate molecular design by efficiently identifying top-performing compounds from a large chemical library. Existing acquisition strategies for batch design in BO aim to balance exploration and exploitation. This often involves optimizing non-additive batch acquisition functions, necessitating approximation via myopic construction and/or diversity heuristics. In this work, we propose an acquisition strategy for discrete optimization that is motivated by pure exploitation, qPO (multipoint Probability of Optimality). qPO maximizes the probability that the batch includes the true optimum, which is expressible as the sum over individual acquisition scores and thereby circumvents the combinatorial challenge of optimizing a batch acquisition function. We differentiate the proposed strategy from parallel Thompson sampling and discuss how it implicitly captures diversity. Finally, we apply our method to the model-guided exploration of large chemical libraries and provide empirical evidence that it performs better than or on par with state-of-the-art methods in batched Bayesian optimization.

Deep neural networks can obtain impressive performance on various tasks under the assumption that their training domain is identical to their target domain. Performance can drop dramatically when this assumption does not hold. One explanation for this discrepancy is the presence of spurious domain-specific correlations in the training data that the network exploits. Causal mechanisms, in the other hand, can be made invariant under distribution changes as they allow disentangling the factors of distribution underlying the data generation. Yet, learning causal mechanisms to improve out-of-distribution generalisation remains an under-explored area. We propose a Bayesian neural architecture that disentangles the learning of the the data distribution from the inference process mechanisms. We show theoretically and experimentally that our model approximates reasoning under causal interventions. We demonstrate the performance of our method, outperforming point estimate-counterparts, on out-of-distribution image recognition tasks where the data distribution acts as strong adversarial confounders.