The rapid evolution of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) has significantly influenced the domain of human-computer interaction, with Steady-State Visual Evoked Potentials (SSVEP) emerging as a notably robust paradigm. This study explores advanced classification techniques leveraging interpretable fuzzy transfer learning (iFuzzyTL) to enhance the adaptability and performance of SSVEP-based systems. Recent efforts have strengthened to reduce calibration requirements through innovative transfer learning approaches, which refine cross-subject generalizability and minimize calibration through strategic application of domain adaptation and few-shot learning strategies. Pioneering developments in deep learning also offer promising enhancements, facilitating robust domain adaptation and significantly improving system responsiveness and accuracy in SSVEP classification. However, these methods often require complex tuning and extensive data, limiting immediate applicability. iFuzzyTL introduces an adaptive framework that combines fuzzy logic principles with neural network architectures, focusing on efficient knowledge transfer and domain adaptation. iFuzzyTL refines input signal processing and classification in a human-interpretable format by integrating fuzzy inference systems and attention mechanisms. This approach bolsters the model's precision and aligns with real-world operational demands by effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty of EEG data. The model's efficacy is demonstrated across three datasets: 12JFPM (89.70% accuracy for 1s with an information transfer rate (ITR) of 149.58), Benchmark (85.81% accuracy for 1s with an ITR of 213.99), and eldBETA (76.50% accuracy for 1s with an ITR of 94.63), achieving state-of-the-art results and setting new benchmarks for SSVEP BCI performance.

Maps of dynamics are effective representations of motion patterns learned from prior observations, with recent research demonstrating their ability to enhance performance in various downstream tasks such as human-aware robot navigation, long-term human motion prediction, and robot localization. Current advancements have primarily concentrated on methods for learning maps of human flow in environments where the flow is static, i.e., not assumed to change over time. In this paper we propose a method to update the CLiFF-map, one type of map of dynamics, for achieving efficient life-long robot operation. As new observations are collected, our goal is to update a CLiFF-map to effectively and accurately integrate new observations, while retaining relevant historic motion patterns. The proposed online update method maintains a probabilistic representation in each observed location, updating parameters by continuously tracking sufficient statistics. In experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our method is able to maintain accurate representations of human motion dynamics, contributing to high performance flow-compliant planning downstream tasks, while being orders of magnitude faster than the comparable baselines.

Contemporary machine learning methods will try to approach the Bayes error, as it is the lowest possible error any model can achieve. This paper postulates that any decision is composed of not one but two Bayesian decisions and that decision-making is, therefore, a double-Bayesian process. The paper shows how this duality implies intrinsic uncertainty in decisions and how it incorporates explainability. The proposed approach understands that Bayesian learning is tantamount to finding a base for a logarithmic function measuring uncertainty, with solutions being fixed points. Furthermore, following this approach, the golden ratio describes possible solutions satisfying Bayes' theorem. The double-Bayesian framework suggests using a learning rate and momentum weight with values similar to those used in the literature to train neural networks with stochastic gradient descent.

Complex query answering (CQA) on knowledge graphs (KGs) is gaining momentum as a challenging reasoning task. In this paper, we show that the current benchmarks for CQA are not really complex, and the way they are built distorts our perception of progress in this field. For example, we find that in these benchmarks, most queries (up to 98% for some query types) can be reduced to simpler problems, e.g., link prediction, where only one link needs to be predicted. The performance of state-of-the-art CQA models drops significantly when such models are evaluated on queries that cannot be reduced to easier types. Thus, we propose a set of more challenging benchmarks, composed of queries that require models to reason over multiple hops and better reflect the construction of real-world KGs. In a systematic empirical investigation, the new benchmarks show that current methods leave much to be desired from current CQA methods.

We introduce a novel optimal transport framework for probabilistic circuits (PCs). While it has been shown recently that divergences between distributions represented as certain classes of PCs can be computed tractably, to the best of our knowledge, there is no existing approach to compute the Wasserstein distance between probability distributions given by PCs. We consider a Wasserstein-type distance that restricts the coupling measure of the associated optimal transport problem to be a probabilistic circuit. We then develop an algorithm for computing this distance by solving a series of small linear programs and derive the circuit conditions under which this is tractable. Furthermore, we show that we can also retrieve the optimal transport plan between the PCs from the solutions to these linear programming problems. We then consider the empirical Wasserstein distance between a PC and a dataset, and show that we can estimate the PC parameters to minimize this distance through an efficient iterative algorithm.

This paper introduces the Bayesian Confidence Estimator (BACON) for deep neural networks. Current practice of interpreting Softmax values in the output layer as probabilities of outcomes is prone to extreme predictions of class probability. In this work we extend Waagen's method of representing the terminal layers with a geometric model, where the probability associated with an output vector is estimated with Bayes' Rule using validation data to provide likelihood and normalization values. This estimator provides superior ECE and ACE calibration error compared to Softmax for ResNet-18 at 85% network accuracy, and EfficientNet-B0 at 95% network accuracy, on the CIFAR-10 dataset with an imbalanced test set, except for very high accuracy edge cases. In addition, when using the ACE metric, BACON demonstrated improved calibration error when estimating probabilities for the imbalanced test set when using actual class distribution fractions.

Autoregressive models have demonstrated an unprecedented ability at modeling the intricacies of natural language. However, they continue to struggle with generating complex outputs that adhere to logical constraints. Sampling from a fully-independent distribution subject to a constraint is hard. Sampling from an autoregressive distribution subject to a constraint is doubly hard: We have to contend not only with the hardness of the constraint but also the distribution's lack of structure. We propose a tractable probabilistic approach that performs Bayesian conditioning to draw samples subject to a constraint. Our approach considers the entire sequence, leading to a more globally optimal constrained generation than current greedy methods. Starting from a model sample, we induce a local, factorized distribution which we can tractably condition on the constraint. To generate samples that satisfy the constraint, we sample from the conditional distribution, correct for biases in the samples and resample. The resulting samples closely approximate the target distribution and are guaranteed to satisfy the constraints. We evaluate our approach on several tasks, including LLM detoxification and solving Sudoku puzzles. We show that by disallowing a list of toxic expressions our approach is able to steer the model's outputs away from toxic generations, outperforming similar approaches to detoxification. We conclude by showing that our approach achieves a perfect accuracy on Sudoku compared to <50% for GPT4-o and Gemini 1.5.

The computational cost for inference and prediction of statistical models based on Gaussian processes with Mat\'ern covariance functions scales cubicly with the number of observations, limiting their applicability to large data sets. The cost can be reduced in certain special cases, but there are currently no generally applicable exact methods with linear cost. Several approximate methods have been introduced to reduce the cost, but most of these lack theoretical guarantees for the accuracy. We consider Gaussian processes on bounded intervals with Mat\'ern covariance functions and for the first time develop a generally applicable method with linear cost and with a covariance error that decreases exponentially fast in the order $m$ of the proposed approximation. The method is based on an optimal rational approximation of the spectral density and results in an approximation that can be represented as a sum of $m$ independent Gaussian Markov processes, which facilitates easy usage in general software for statistical inference, enabling its efficient implementation in general statistical inference software packages. Besides the theoretical justifications, we demonstrate the accuracy empirically through carefully designed simulation studies which show that the method outperforms all state-of-the-art alternatives in terms of accuracy for a fixed computational cost in statistical tasks such as Gaussian process regression.

Science is inherently inductive and thus involves uncertainties. They are commonly categorized as aleatoric uncertainty (AU), which refers to inherent variability, and epistemic uncertainty (EU), arising from limited information such as finite data or model assumptions (Hora, 1996). These uncertainties often overlap, as scientists may be epistemically uncertain about the aleatoric variation in their inquiry. Distinguishing and acknowledging them is crucial for the safe and trustworthy deployment of intelligent systems (Kendall and Gal, 2017; Hüllermeier and Waegeman, 2021), as they lead to different down-stream decisions. For example, experimental design aims to reduce EU (Nguyen et al., 2019; Chau et al., 2021b; Adachi et al., 2024), while risk management uses hedging strategy to address AU (Mashrur et al., 2020) While AU is often modelled using probability distributions, modelling EU--particularly in states of epistemic ignorance, also known as partial ignorance or incomplete knowledge (Dubois et al., 1996)--poses greater challenges. For instance, a scientist analysing insulin levels in Germany may have data from multiple hospitals, each representing aleatoric variation as a probability distribution. However, these distributions are merely proxies for the population-level insulin distribution, which is difficult to infer due to data collection limitations. A Bayesian approach could aggregate the data based on a prior if the representativeness of each source is known, but in many cases, scientists operate under partial ignorance, lacking such prior information (Bromberger, 1971). Assigning a uniform prior by following the principle of indifference (Keynes, 1921) and maximum entropy principle (Jaynes, 1957), or applying Jeffrey's prior by following the principle of transformation groups (Jaynes, 1968) only reflects indifference, not epistemic ignorance.

Training generative models to sample from unnormalized density functions is an important and challenging task in machine learning. Traditional training methods often rely on the reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence due to its tractability. However, the mode-seeking behavior of reverse KL hinders effective approximation of multi-modal target distributions. To address this, we propose to minimize the reverse KL along diffusion trajectories of both model and target densities. We refer to this objective as the reverse diffusive KL divergence, which allows the model to capture multiple modes. Leveraging this objective, we train neural samplers that can efficiently generate samples from the target distribution in one step. We demonstrate that our method enhances sampling performance across various Boltzmann distributions, including both synthetic multi-modal densities and n-body particle systems.