Semi-supervised learning (SSL) is a machine learning methodology that leverages unlabeled data in conjunction with a limited amount of labeled data. Although SSL has been applied in various applications and its effectiveness has been empirically demonstrated, it is still not fully understood when and why SSL performs well. Some existing theoretical studies have attempted to address this issue by modeling classification problems using the so-called Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). These studies provide notable and insightful interpretations. However, their analyses are focused on specific purposes, and a thorough investigation of the properties of GMM in the context of SSL has been lacking. In this paper, we conduct such a detailed analysis of the properties of the high-dimensional GMM for binary classification in the SSL setting. To this end, we employ the approximate message passing and state evolution methods, which are widely used in high-dimensional settings and originate from statistical mechanics. We deal with two estimation approaches: the Bayesian one and the l2-regularized maximum likelihood estimation (RMLE). We conduct a comprehensive comparison between these two approaches, examining aspects such as the global phase diagram, estimation error for the parameters, and prediction error for the labels. A specific comparison is made between the Bayes-optimal (BO) estimator and RMLE, as the BO setting provides optimal estimation performance and is ideal as a benchmark. Our analysis shows that with appropriate regularizations, RMLE can achieve near-optimal performance in terms of both the estimation error and prediction error, especially when there is a large amount of unlabeled data. These results demonstrate that the l2 regularization term plays an effective role in estimation and prediction in SSL approaches.

The detection of phase transitions is a central task in many-body physics. To automate this process, the task can be phrased as a classification problem. Classification problems can be approached in two fundamentally distinct ways: through either a discriminative or a generative method. In general, it is unclear which of these two approaches is most suitable for a given problem. The choice is expected to depend on factors such as the availability of system knowledge, dataset size, desired accuracy, computational resources, and other considerations. In this work, we answer the question of how one should approach the solution of phase-classification problems by performing a numerical case study on the thermal phase transition in the classical two-dimensional square-lattice ferromagnetic Ising model.

Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in modern applications, such as Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI). In these settings, confidence sets may fail to maintain a confidence level close to the nominal value. In this paper, we introduce two novel methods, TRUST and TRUST++, for calibrating confidence sets to achieve distribution-free conditional coverage. These methods rely entirely on simulated data from the statistical model to perform calibration. Leveraging insights from conformal prediction techniques adapted to the statistical inference context, our methods ensure both finite-sample local coverage and asymptotic conditional coverage as the number of simulations increases, even if n is small. They effectively handle nuisance parameters and provide computationally efficient uncertainty quantification for the estimated confidence sets. This allows users to assess whether additional simulations are necessary for robust inference. Through theoretical analysis and experiments on models with both tractable and intractable likelihoods, we demonstrate that our methods outperform existing approaches, particularly in small-sample regimes.

Diffusion probabilistic models learn to remove noise that is artificially added to the data during training. Novel data, like images, may then be generated from Gaussian noise through a sequence of denoising operations. While this Markov process implicitly defines a joint distribution over noise-free data, it is not simple to condition the generative process on masked or partial images. A number of heuristic sampling procedures have been proposed for solving inverse problems with diffusion priors, but these approaches do not directly approximate the true conditional distribution imposed by inference queries, and are often ineffective for large masked regions. Moreover, many of these baselines cannot be applied to latent diffusion models which use image encodings for efficiency. We instead develop a hierarchical variational inference algorithm that analytically marginalizes missing features, and uses a rigorous variational bound to optimize a non-Gaussian Markov approximation of the true diffusion posterior. Through extensive experiments with both pixel-based and latent diffusion models of images, we show that our VIPaint method significantly outperforms previous approaches in both the plausibility and diversity of imputations, and is easily generalized to other inverse problems like deblurring and superresolution.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm in Artificial Intelligence (AI), enabling agents to learn optimal behaviors through interactions with their environments. Drawing from the foundations of trial and error, RL equips agents to make informed decisions through feedback in the form of rewards or penalties. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of RL, meticulously analyzing a wide range of algorithms, from foundational tabular methods to advanced Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) techniques. We categorize and evaluate these algorithms based on key criteria such as scalability, sample efficiency, and suitability. We compare the methods in the form of their strengths and weaknesses in diverse settings. Additionally, we offer practical insights into the selection and implementation of RL algorithms, addressing common challenges like convergence, stability, and the exploration-exploitation dilemma. This paper serves as a comprehensive reference for researchers and practitioners aiming to harness the full potential of RL in solving complex, real-world problems.

The problem of incorporating information from observations received serially in time is widespread in the field of uncertainty quantification. Within a probabilistic framework, such problems can be addressed using standard filtering techniques. However, in many real-world problems, some (or all) of the uncertainty is epistemic, arising from a lack of knowledge, and is difficult to model probabilistically. This paper introduces a possibilistic ensemble Kalman filter designed for this setting and characterizes some of its properties. Using possibility theory to describe epistemic uncertainty is appealing from a philosophical perspective, and it is easy to justify certain heuristics often employed in standard ensemble Kalman filters as principled approaches to capturing uncertainty within it. The possibilistic approach motivates a robust mechanism for characterizing uncertainty which shows good performance with small sample sizes, and can outperform standard ensemble Kalman filters at given sample size, even when dealing with genuinely aleatoric uncertainty.

Catastrophic forgetting has been the leading issue in the domain of lifelong learning in artificial systems. Current artificial systems are reasonably good at learning domains they have seen before; however, as soon as they encounter something new, they either go through a significant performance deterioration or if you try to teach them the new distribution of data, they forget what they have learned before. Additionally, they are also prone to being overly confident when performing inference on seen as well as unseen data, causing significant reliability issues when lives are at stake. Therefore, it is extremely important to dig into this problem and formulate an approach that will be continually adaptable as well as reliable. If we move away from the engineering domain of such systems and look into biological systems, we can realize that these very systems are very efficient at computing the reliance as well as the uncertainty of accurate predictions that further help them refine the inference in a life-long setting. These systems are not perfect; however, they do give us a solid understanding of the reasoning under uncertainty which takes us to the domain of Bayesian reasoning. We incorporate this Bayesian inference with thresholding mechanism as to mimic more biologically inspired models, but only at spatial level. Further, we reproduce a recent study on Bayesian Inference with Spiking Neural Networks for Continual Learning to compare against it as a suitable biologically inspired Bayesian framework. Overall, we investigate the plausibility of biologically inspired Bayesian Learning in artificial systems on a vision dataset, MNIST, and show relative performance improvement under the conditions when the model is forced to predict VS when the model is not.

As AI systems become increasingly powerful, the need for safe AI has become more pressing. Humans are an attractive model for AI safety: as the only known agents capable of general intelligence, they perform robustly even under conditions that deviate significantly from prior experiences, explore the world safely, understand pragmatics, and can cooperate to meet their intrinsic goals. Intelligence, when coupled with cooperation and safety mechanisms, can drive sustained progress and well-being. These properties are a function of the architecture of the brain and the learning algorithms it implements. Neuroscience may thus hold important keys to technical AI safety that are currently underexplored and underutilized. In this roadmap, we highlight and critically evaluate several paths toward AI safety inspired by neuroscience: emulating the brain's representations, information processing, and architecture; building robust sensory and motor systems from imitating brain data and bodies; fine-tuning AI systems on brain data; advancing interpretability using neuroscience methods; and scaling up cognitively-inspired architectures. We make several concrete recommendations for how neuroscience can positively impact AI safety.

Accurate travel time estimation is essential for navigation and itinerary planning. While existing research employs probabilistic modeling to assess travel time uncertainty and account for correlations between multiple trips, modeling the temporal variability of multi-trip travel time distributions remains a significant challenge. Capturing the evolution of joint distributions requires large, well-organized datasets; however, real-world trip data are often temporally sparse and spatially unevenly distributed. To address this issue, we propose SPTTE, a spatiotemporal probabilistic framework that models the evolving joint distribution of multi-trip travel times by formulating the estimation task as a spatiotemporal stochastic process regression problem with fragmented observations. SPTTE incorporates an RNN-based temporal Gaussian process parameterization to regularize sparse observations and capture temporal dependencies. Additionally, it employs a prior-based heterogeneity smoothing strategy to correct unreliable learning caused by unevenly distributed trips, effectively modeling temporal variability under sparse and uneven data distributions. Evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate that SPTTE outperforms state-of-the-art deterministic and probabilistic methods by over 10.13%. Ablation studies and visualizations further confirm the effectiveness of the model components.

The reliable recovery and uncertainty quantification of a fixed effect function $\mu$ in a functional mixed model, for modelling population- and object-level variability in noisily observed functional data, is a notoriously challenging task: variations along the $x$ and $y$ axes are confounded with additive measurement error, and cannot in general be disentangled. The question then as to what properties of $\mu$ may be reliably recovered becomes important. We demonstrate that it is possible to recover the size-and-shape of a square-integrable $\mu$ under a Bayesian functional mixed model. The size-and-shape of $\mu$ is a geometric property invariant to a family of space-time unitary transformations, viewed as rotations of the Hilbert space, that jointly transform the $x$ and $y$ axes. A random object-level unitary transformation then captures size-and-shape \emph{preserving} deviations of $\mu$ from an individual function, while a random linear term and measurement error capture size-and-shape \emph{altering} deviations. The model is regularized by appropriate priors on the unitary transformations, posterior summaries of which may then be suitably interpreted as optimal data-driven rotations of a fixed orthonormal basis for the Hilbert space. Our numerical experiments demonstrate utility of the proposed model, and superiority over the current state-of-the-art.