This paper introduces Type 2 Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (TOBART-2). BART can produce accurate individual-specific treatment effect estimates. However, in practice estimates are often biased by sample selection. We extend the Type 2 Tobit sample selection model to account for nonlinearities and model uncertainty by including sums of trees in both the selection and outcome equations. A Dirichlet Process Mixture distribution for the error terms allows for departure from the assumption of bivariate normally distributed errors. Soft trees and a Dirichlet prior on splitting probabilities improve modeling of smooth and sparse data generating processes. We include a simulation study and an application to the RAND Health Insurance Experiment data set.

Real-world data contain uncertainty and variations that can be correlated to external variables, known as randomness. An alternative cause of randomness is chaos, which can be an important component of chaotic time series. One of the existing methods to deal with this type of data is the use of the evolving Fuzzy Systems (eFSs), which have been proven to be a powerful class of models for time series forecasting, due to their autonomy to handle the data and highly complex problems in real-world applications. However, due to its working structure, type-2 fuzzy sets can outperform type-1 fuzzy sets for highly uncertain scenarios. We then propose ePL-KRLS-FSM+, an enhanced class of evolving fuzzy modeling approach that combines participatory learning (PL), a kernel recursive least squares method (KRLS), type-2 fuzzy logic and data transformation into fuzzy sets (FSs). This improvement allows to create and measure type-2 fuzzy sets for better handling uncertainties in the data, generating a model that can predict chaotic data with increased accuracy. The model is evaluated using two complex datasets: the chaotic time series Mackey-Glass delay differential equation with different degrees of chaos, and the main stock index of the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index - TAIEX. Model performance is compared to related state-of-the-art rule-based eFS models and classical approaches and is analyzed in terms of error metrics, runtime and the number of final rules. Forecasting results show that the proposed model is competitive and performs consistently compared with type-1 models, also outperforming other forecasting methods by showing the lowest error metrics and number of final rules.

We propose a novel Bregman descent algorithm for minimizing a convex function that is expressed as the sum of a differentiable part (defined over an open set) and a possibly nonsmooth term. The approach, referred to as the Variable Bregman Majorization-Minimization (VBMM) algorithm, extends the Bregman Proximal Gradient method by allowing the Bregman function used in the divergence to adaptively vary at each iteration, provided it satisfies a majorizing condition on the objective function. This adaptive framework enables the algorithm to approximate the objective more precisely at each iteration, thereby allowing for accelerated convergence compared to the traditional Bregman Proximal Gradient descent. We establish the convergence of the VBMM algorithm to a minimizer under mild assumptions on the family of metrics used. Furthermore, we introduce a novel application of both the Bregman Proximal Gradient method and the VBMM algorithm to the estimation of the multidimensional parameters of a Dirichlet distribution through the maximization of its log-likelihood. Numerical experiments confirm that the VBMM algorithm outperforms existing approaches in terms of convergence speed.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is crucial for developing trustworthy and reliable machine learning systems. Recent advances in training with auxiliary OOD data demonstrate efficacy in enhancing detection capabilities. Nonetheless, these methods heavily rely on acquiring a large pool of high-quality natural outliers. Some prior methods try to alleviate this problem by synthesizing virtual outliers but suffer from either poor quality or high cost due to the monotonous sampling strategy and the heavy-parameterized generative models. In this paper, we overcome all these problems by proposing the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Outlier Synthesis (HamOS) framework, which views the synthesis process as sampling from Markov chains. Based solely on the in-distribution data, the Markov chains can extensively traverse the feature space and generate diverse and representative outliers, hence exposing the model to miscellaneous potential OOD scenarios. The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with sampling acceptance rate almost close to 1 also makes our framework enjoy great efficiency. By empirically competing with SOTA baselines on both standard and large-scale benchmarks, we verify the efficacy and efficiency of our proposed HamOS.

I think the distributed setting and all the subtleties that come with it should have been explored better. I was left wondering about the communication costs of an architecture needed for this to work, and potential issues with that. One obvious question would be, how would the iterate updates at each node be impacted by random noise injected into the w_{js} being passed around in the comms channels and/or random drops / missed updates. The only difference between the convergence discussion in \S4.1 and other works in the literature that use similar machinery seems to be the formulations for the extra constants/iterate weights in the distributed setting. This reduces the novelty/significance of that section somewhat, in my opinion.

The paper adresses the important problem of Bayesian inference in a distributed setting, via a decentralized Langevin algorithm. Although the method is a natural extension of existing algorithms, its simplicity is an advantage, and the theoretical analysis is nontrivial. After considering the author's response, all reviewers agreed that the paper will make a nice contribution to Neurips.

The authors propose Bayesian Meta Architecture Search (BASE), a method for meta learning neural network architectures and their weights across tasks. The paper frames this problem as an Bayesian inference problem and employs Gumbel-Softmax, reparametrization and optimization embedding, a variation inference method, to optimize a distribution over neural network architectures and their weights across different tasks. Originality: Meta learning neural network architectures is a very natural next step for NAS research, which as not been done so far (at least I'm not aware of any work). It is not only very natural but also very important as it allows to make NAS more scalable and of more practical relevance. The Bayesian view, however, is not really novel, but rather an obvious extension of [1]. In general, the related work section is very short and does not provide a proper summary of the current state of the art in this field of research Quality: BASE is well motivated and derived.

The fields of MPC and RL consider two successful control techniques for Markov decision processes. Both approaches are derived from similar fundamental principles, and both are widely used in practical applications, including robotics, process control, energy systems, and autonomous driving. Despite their similarities, MPC and RL follow distinct paradigms that emerged from diverse communities and different requirements. Various technical discrepancies, particularly the role of an environment model as part of the algorithm, lead to methodologies with nearly complementary advantages. Due to their orthogonal benefits, research interest in combination methods has recently increased significantly, leading to a large and growing set of complex ideas leveraging MPC and RL. This work illuminates the differences, similarities, and fundamentals that allow for different combination algorithms and categorizes existing work accordingly. Particularly, we focus on the versatile actor-critic RL approach as a basis for our categorization and examine how the online optimization approach of MPC can be used to improve the overall closed-loop performance of a policy.

We extend Euclidean score-based diffusion processes to generative modeling on Lie groups. Through the formalism of Generalized Score Matching, our approach yields a Langevin dynamics which decomposes as a direct sum of Lie algebra representations, enabling generative processes on Lie groups while operating in Euclidean space. Unlike equivariant models, which restrict the space of learnable functions by quotienting out group orbits, our method can model any target distribution on any (non-Abelian) Lie group. Standard score matching emerges as a special case of our framework when the Lie group is the translation group. We prove that our generalized generative processes arise as solutions to a new class of paired stochastic differential equations (SDEs), introduced here for the first time. We validate our approach through experiments on diverse data types, demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world applications such as SO(3)-guided molecular conformer generation and modeling ligand-specific global SE(3) transformations for molecular docking, showing improvement in comparison to Riemannian diffusion on the group itself. We show that an appropriate choice of Lie group enhances learning efficiency by reducing the effective dimensionality of the trajectory space and enables the modeling of transitions between complex data distributions. Additionally, we demonstrate the universality of our approach by deriving how it extends to flow matching.

Robots operating in complex and unknown environments frequently require geometric-semantic representations of the environment to safely perform their tasks. While inferring the environment, they must account for many possible scenarios when planning future actions. Since objects' class types are discrete and the robot's self-pose and the objects' poses are continuous, the environment can be represented by a hybrid discrete-continuous belief which is updated according to models and incoming data. Prior probabilities and observation models representing the environment can be learned from data using deep learning algorithms. Such models often couple environmental semantic and geometric properties. As a result, semantic variables are interconnected, causing semantic state space dimensionality to increase exponentially. In this paper, we consider planning under uncertainty using partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with hybrid semantic-geometric beliefs. The models and priors consider the coupling between semantic and geometric variables. Within POMDP, we introduce the concept of semantically aware safety. Obtaining representative samples of the theoretical hybrid belief, required for estimating the value function, is very challenging. As a key contribution, we develop a novel form of the hybrid belief and leverage it to sample representative samples. We show that under certain conditions, the value function and probability of safety can be calculated efficiently with an explicit expectation over all possible semantic mappings. Our simulations show that our estimates of the objective function and probability of safety achieve similar levels of accuracy compared to estimators that run exhaustively on the entire semantic state-space using samples from the theoretical hybrid belief. Nevertheless, the complexity of our estimators is polynomial rather than exponential.