This paper proposes a new class of predictive models for survival analysis called Generalized Bayesian Ensemble Survival Tree (GBEST). It is well known that survival analysis poses many different challenges, in particular when applied to small data or censorship mechanism. Our contribution is the proposal of an ensemble approach that uses Bayesian bootstrap and beta Stacy bootstrap methods to improve the outcome in survival application with a special focus on small datasets. More precisely, a novel approach to integrate Beta Stacy Bayesian bootstrap in bagging tree models for censored data is proposed in this paper. Empirical evidence achieved on simulated and real data underlines that our approach performs better in terms of predictive performances and stability of the results compared with classical survival models available in the literature. In terms of methodology our novel contribution considers the adaptation of recent Bayesian ensemble approaches to survival data, providing a new model called Generalized Bayesian Ensemble Survival Tree (GBEST). A further result in terms of computational novelty is the implementation in R of GBEST, available in a public GitHub repository.

Sequential design of real and computer experiments via Gaussian Process (GP) models has proven useful for parsimonious, goal-oriented data acquisition purposes. In this work, we focus on acquisition strategies for a GP model that needs to be accurate within a predefined range of the response of interest. Such an approach is useful in various fields including synthetic chemistry, where finding molecules with particular properties is essential for developing useful materials and effective medications. GP modeling and sequential design of experiments have been successfully applied to a plethora of domains, including molecule research. Our main contribution here is to use the threshold-weighted Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) as a basic building block for acquisition functions employed within sequential design. We study pointwise and integral criteria relying on two different weighting measures and benchmark them against competitors, demonstrating improved performance with respect to considered goals. The resulting acquisition strategies are applicable to a wide range of fields and pave the way to further developing sequential design relying on scoring rules.

Plug-and-play diffusion priors (PnPDP) have emerged as a promising research direction for solving inverse problems. However, current studies primarily focus on natural image restoration, leaving the performance of these algorithms in scientific inverse problems largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce \textsc{InverseBench}, a framework that evaluates diffusion models across five distinct scientific inverse problems. These problems present unique structural challenges that differ from existing benchmarks, arising from critical scientific applications such as optical tomography, medical imaging, black hole imaging, seismology, and fluid dynamics. With \textsc{InverseBench}, we benchmark 14 inverse problem algorithms that use plug-and-play diffusion priors against strong, domain-specific baselines, offering valuable new insights into the strengths and weaknesses of existing algorithms. To facilitate further research and development, we open-source the codebase, along with datasets and pre-trained models, at https://devzhk.github.io/InverseBench/.

The problem of the priors is well known: it concerns the challenge of identifying norms that govern one's prior credences. I argue that a key to addressing this problem lies in considering what I call the problem of the posteriors -- the challenge of identifying norms that directly govern one's posterior credences, which then induce constraints on the priors via the diachronic requirement of conditionalization. This forward-looking approach can be summarized as: Think ahead, work backward. Although this idea can be traced to Freedman (1963), Carnap (1963), and Shimony (1970), it has received little attention in philosophy. In this paper, I initiate a systematic defense of forward-looking Bayesianism, addressing potential objections from more traditional views (both subjectivist and objectivist) and arguing for its advantages. In particular, I develop a specific approach to forward-looking Bayesianism -- one that treats the convergence of posterior credences to the truth as a fundamental rather than derived normative requirement. This approach, called convergentist Bayesianism, is argued to be crucial for a Bayesian foundation of Ockham's razor and related inference methods in statistics and machine learning.

Cognition swiftly breaks high-dimensional sensory streams into familiar parts and uncovers their relations. Why do structures emerge, and how do they enable learning, generalization, and prediction? What computational principles underlie this core aspect of perception and intelligence? A sensory stream, simplified, is a one-dimensional sequence. In learning such sequences, we naturally segment them into parts -- a process known as chunking. In the first project, I investigated factors influencing chunking in a serial reaction time task and showed that humans adapt to underlying chunks while balancing speed and accuracy. Building on this, I developed models that learn chunks and parse sequences chunk by chunk. Normatively, I proposed chunking as a rational strategy for discovering recurring patterns and nested hierarchies, enabling efficient sequence factorization. Learned chunks serve as reusable primitives for transfer, composition, and mental simulation -- letting the model compose the new from the known. I demonstrated this model's ability to learn hierarchies in single and multi-dimensional sequences and highlighted its utility for unsupervised pattern discovery. The second part moves from concrete to abstract sequences. I taxonomized abstract motifs and examined their role in sequence memory. Behavioral evidence suggests that humans exploit pattern redundancies for compression and transfer. I proposed a non-parametric hierarchical variable model that learns both chunks and abstract variables, uncovering invariant symbolic patterns. I showed its similarity to human learning and compared it to large language models. Taken together, this thesis suggests that chunking and abstraction as simple computational principles enable structured knowledge acquisition in hierarchically organized sequences, from simple to complex, concrete to abstract.

NeuralODE is one example for generative machine learning based on the push forward of a simple source measure with a bijective mapping, which in the case of NeuralODE is given by the flow of a ordinary differential equation. Using Liouville's formula, the log-density of the push forward measure is easy to compute and thus NeuralODE can be trained based on the maximum Likelihood method such that the Kulback-Leibler divergence between the push forward through the flow map and the target measure generating the data becomes small. In this work, we give a detailed account on the consistency of Maximum Likelihood based empirical risk minimization for a generic class of target measures. In contrast to prior work, we do not only consider the statistical learning theory, but also give a detailed numerical analysis of the NeuralODE algorithm based on the 2nd order Runge-Kutta (RK) time integration. Using the universal approximation theory for deep ReQU networks, the stability and convergence rated for the RK scheme as well as metric entropy and concentration inequalities, we are able to prove that NeuralODE is a probably approximately correct (PAC) learning algorithm.

High-quality test items are essential for educational assessments, particularly within Item Response Theory (IRT). Traditional validation methods rely on resource-intensive pilot testing to estimate item difficulty and discrimination. More recently, Item-Writing Flaw (IWF) rubrics emerged as a domain-general approach for evaluating test items based on textual features. However, their relationship to IRT parameters remains underexplored. To address this gap, we conducted a study involving over 7,000 multiple-choice questions across various STEM subjects (e.g., math and biology). Using an automated approach, we annotated each question with a 19-criteria IWF rubric and studied relationships to data-driven IRT parameters. Our analysis revealed statistically significant links between the number of IWFs and IRT difficulty and discrimination parameters, particularly in life and physical science domains. We further observed how specific IWF criteria can impact item quality more and less severely (e.g., negative wording vs. implausible distractors). Overall, while IWFs are useful for predicting IRT parameters--particularly for screening low-difficulty MCQs--they cannot replace traditional data-driven validation methods. Our findings highlight the need for further research on domain-general evaluation rubrics and algorithms that understand domain-specific content for robust item validation.

In this work, we propose FlowTime, a generative model for probabilistic forecasting of multivariate timeseries data. Given historical measurements and optional future covariates, we formulate forecasting as sampling from a learned conditional distribution over future trajectories. Specifically, we decompose the joint distribution of future observations into a sequence of conditional densities, each modeled via a shared flow that transforms a simple base distribution into the next observation distribution, conditioned on observed covariates. To achieve this, we leverage the flow matching (FM) framework, enabling scalable and simulation-free learning of these transformations. By combining this factorization with the FM objective, FlowTime retains the benefits of autoregressive models -- including strong extrapolation performance, compact model size, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates -- while also capturing complex multi-modal conditional distributions, as seen in modern transport-based generative models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of FlowTime on multiple dynamical systems and real-world forecasting tasks.

This article proposes numerically robust algorithms for Gaussian state estimation with singular observation noise. Our approach combines a series of basis changes with Bayes' rule, transforming the singular estimation problem into a nonsingular one with reduced state dimension. In addition to ensuring low runtime and numerical stability, our proposal facilitates marginal-likelihood computations and Gauss-Markov representations of the posterior process. We analyse the proposed method's computational savings and numerical robustness and validate our findings in a series of simulations.

An important step in understanding how children acquire languages is studying how infants learn word segmentation. It has been established in previous research that infants may use statistical regularities in speech to learn word segmentation. The research of Goldwater et al., demonstrated that incorporating context in models improves their ability to learn word segmentation. We implemented two of their models, a unigram and bigram model, to examine how context can improve statistical word segmentation. The results are consistent with our hypothesis that the bigram model outperforms the unigram model at predicting word segmentation. Extending the work of Goldwater et al., we also explored basic ways to model how young children might use previously learned words to segment new utterances.