Optimal trajectories that minimize a user-defined cost function in dynamic systems require the solution of a two-point boundary value problem. The optimization process yields an optimal control sequence that depends on the initial conditions and system parameters. However, the optimal sequence may result in undesirable behavior if the system's initial conditions and parameters are erroneous. This work presents a data-driven fuzzy controller synthesis framework that is guided by a time-optimal trajectory for multicopter tracking problems. In particular, we consider an aggressive maneuver consisting of a mid-air flip and generate a time-optimal trajectory by numerically solving the two-point boundary value problem. A fuzzy controller consisting of a stabilizing controller near hover conditions and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) controller, trained to mimic the time-optimal aggressive trajectory, is constructed using the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy framework.

This study proposes a method for imbalanced data classification based on deep probabilistic graphical models (DPGMs) to solve the problem that traditional methods have insufficient learning ability for minority class samples. To address the classification bias caused by class imbalance, we introduce variational inference optimization probability modeling, which enables the model to adaptively adjust the representation ability of minority classes and combines the class-aware weight adjustment strategy to enhance the classifier's sensitivity to minority classes. In addition, we combine the adversarial learning mechanism to generate minority class samples in the latent space so that the model can better characterize the category boundary in the high-dimensional feature space. The experiment is evaluated on the Kaggle "Credit Card Fraud Detection" dataset and compared with a variety of advanced imbalanced classification methods (such as GAN-based sampling, BRF, XGBoost-Cost Sensitive, SAAD, HAN). The results show that the method in this study has achieved the best performance in AUC, Precision, Recall and F1-score indicators, effectively improving the recognition rate of minority classes and reducing the false alarm rate. This method can be widely used in imbalanced classification tasks such as financial fraud detection, medical diagnosis, and anomaly detection, providing a new solution for related research.

In the Quantum Supremacy regime, quantum computers may overcome classical machines on several tasks if we can estimate, mitigate, or correct unavoidable hardware noise. Estimating the error requires classical simulations, which become unfeasible in the Quantum Supremacy regime. We leverage Machine Learning data-driven approaches and Conformal Prediction, a Machine Learning uncertainty quantification tool known for its mild assumptions and finite-sample validity, to find theoretically valid upper bounds of the fidelity between noiseless and noisy outputs of quantum devices. Under reasonable extrapolation assumptions, the proposed scheme applies to any Quantum Computing hardware, does not require modeling the device's noise sources, and can be used when classical simulations are unavailable, e.g. in the Quantum Supremacy regime.

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a kernel-based particle method for sampling from a target distribution, e.g., in generative modeling and Bayesian inference. SVGD does not require estimating the gradient of the log-density, which is called score estimation. In practice, SVGD can be slow compared to score-estimation based sampling algorithms. To design fast and efficient high-dimensional sampling algorithms, we introduce ASVGD, an accelerated SVGD, based on an accelerated gradient flow in a metric space of probability densities following Nesterov's method. We then derive a momentum-based discrete-time sampling algorithm, which evolves a set of particles deterministically. To stabilize the particles' momentum update, we also study a Wasserstein metric regularization. For the generalized bilinear kernel and the Gaussian kernel, toy numerical examples with varied target distributions demonstrate the effectiveness of ASVGD compared to SVGD and other popular sampling methods.

Predicting future observations plays a central role in machine learning, biology, economics, and many other fields. It lies at the heart of organizational principles such as the variational free energy principle and has even been shown -- based on the second law of thermodynamics -- to be necessary for reaching the fundamental energetic limits of sequential information processing. While the usefulness of the predictive paradigm is undisputed, complex adaptive systems that interact with their environment are more than just predictive machines: they have the power to act upon their environment and cause change. In this work, we develop a framework to analyze the thermodynamics of information processing in percept-action loops -- a model of agent-environment interaction -- allowing us to investigate the thermodynamic implications of actions and percepts on equal footing. To this end, we introduce the concept of work capacity -- the maximum rate at which an agent can expect to extract work from its environment. Our results reveal that neither of two previously established design principles for work-efficient agents -- maximizing predictive power and forgetting past actions -- remains optimal in environments where actions have observable consequences. Instead, a trade-off emerges: work-efficient agents must balance prediction and forgetting, as remembering past actions can reduce the available free energy. This highlights a fundamental departure from the thermodynamics of passive observation, suggesting that prediction and energy efficiency may be at odds in active learning systems.

Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC) is a sample-efficient method for approximate Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihoods. While VBMC's local surrogate approach provides stable approximations, its conservative exploration strategy and limited evaluation budget can cause it to miss regions of complex posteriors. In this work, we introduce Stacking Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (S-VBMC), a method that constructs global posterior approximations by merging independent VBMC runs through a principled and inexpensive post-processing step. Our approach leverages VBMC's mixture posterior representation and per-component evidence estimates, requiring no additional likelihood evaluations while being naturally parallelizable. We demonstrate S-VBMC's effectiveness on two synthetic problems designed to challenge VBMC's exploration capabilities and two real-world applications from computational neuroscience, showing substantial improvements in posterior approximation quality across all cases.

Sch\"odinger bridge (SB) has evolved into a universal class of probabilistic generative models. In practice, however, estimated learning signals are often uncertain, and the reliability promised by existing methods is often based on speculative optimal-case scenarios. Recent studies regarding the Sinkhorn algorithm through mirror descent (MD) have gained attention, revealing geometric insights into solution acquisition of the SB problems. In this paper, we propose a variational online MD (OMD) framework for the SB problems, which provides further stability to SB solvers. We formally prove convergence and a regret bound for the novel OMD formulation of SB acquisition. As a result, we propose a simulation-free SB algorithm called Variational Mirrored Schr\"odinger Bridge (VMSB) by utilizing the Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao geometry of the Gaussian mixture parameterization for Schr\"odinger potentials. Based on the Wasserstein gradient flow theory, the algorithm offers tractable learning dynamics that precisely approximate each OMD step. In experiments, we validate the performance of the proposed VMSB algorithm across an extensive suite of benchmarks. VMSB consistently outperforms contemporary SB solvers on a range of SB problems, demonstrating the robustness predicted by our theory.

Diffusion models are distinguished by their exceptional generative performance, particularly in producing high-quality samples through iterative denoising. While current theory suggests that the number of denoising steps required for accurate sample generation should scale linearly with data dimension, this does not reflect the practical efficiency of widely used algorithms like Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs). This paper investigates the effectiveness of diffusion models in sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions that can be well-approximated by Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). For these distributions, our main result shows that DDPM takes at most $\widetilde{O}(1/\varepsilon)$ iterations to attain an $\varepsilon$-accurate distribution in total variation (TV) distance, independent of both the ambient dimension $d$ and the number of components $K$, up to logarithmic factors. Furthermore, this result remains robust to score estimation errors. These findings highlight the remarkable effectiveness of diffusion models in high-dimensional settings given the universal approximation capability of GMMs, and provide theoretical insights into their practical success.

Score estimation is the backbone of score-based generative models (SGMs), especially denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). A key result in this area shows that with accurate score estimates, SGMs can efficiently generate samples from any realistic data distribution (Chen et al., ICLR'23; Lee et al., ALT'23). This distribution learning result, where the learned distribution is implicitly that of the sampler's output, does not explain how score estimation relates to classical tasks of parameter and density estimation. This paper introduces a framework that reduces score estimation to these two tasks, with various implications for statistical and computational learning theory: Parameter Estimation: Koehler et al. (ICLR'23) demonstrate that a score-matching variant is statistically inefficient for the parametric estimation of multimodal densities common in practice. In contrast, we show that under mild conditions, denoising score-matching in DDPMs is asymptotically efficient. Density Estimation: By linking generation to score estimation, we lift existing score estimation guarantees to $(\epsilon,\delta)$-PAC density estimation, i.e., a function approximating the target log-density within $\epsilon$ on all but a $\delta$-fraction of the space. We provide (i) minimax rates for density estimation over H\"older classes and (ii) a quasi-polynomial PAC density estimation algorithm for the classical Gaussian location mixture model, building on and addressing an open problem from Gatmiry et al. (arXiv'24). Lower Bounds for Score Estimation: Our framework offers the first principled method to prove computational lower bounds for score estimation across general distributions. As an application, we establish cryptographic lower bounds for score estimation in general Gaussian mixture models, conceptually recovering Song's (NeurIPS'24) result and advancing his key open problem.

Abstract--In this paper, we analyze the performance of the estimation of Laplacian matrices under general observatio n models. Laplacian matrix estimation involves structural c on-straints, including symmetry and null-space properties, a long with matrix sparsity. By exploiting a linear reparametriza tion that enforces the structural constraints, we derive closed -form matrix expressions for the Cram er-Rao Bound (CRB) specifically tailored to Laplacian matrix estimation. We further extend the derivation to the sparsity-constrained case, introduc ing two oracle CRBs that incorporate prior information of the suppo rt set, i.e. the locations of the nonzero entries in the Laplaci an matrix. We examine the properties and order relations betwe en the bounds, and provide the associated Slepian-Bangs formu la for the Gaussian case. We demonstrate the use of the new CRBs in three representative applications: (i) topology identi fication in power systems, (ii) graph filter identification in diffuse d models, and (iii) precision matrix estimation in Gaussian M arkov random fields under Laplacian constraints. The CRBs are eval - uated and compared with the mean-squared-errors (MSEs) of the constrained maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE), whic h integrates both equality and inequality constraints along with sparsity constraints, and of the oracle CMLE, which knows the locations of the nonzero entries of the Laplacian matrix . We perform this analysis for the applications of power syste m topology identification and graphical LASSO, and demonstra te that the MSEs of the estimators converge to the CRB and oracle CRB, given a sufficient number of measurements. Graph-structured data and signals arise in numerous applications, including power systems, communications, finance, social networks, and biological networks, for analysis and inference of networks [ 2 ], [ 3 ]. In this context, the Laplacian matrix, which captures node connectivity and edge weights, serves as a fundamental tool for clustering [ 4 ], modeling graph diffusion processes [ 5 ], [ 6 ], topology inference [ 6 ]-[ 12 ], anomaly detection [ 13 ], graph-based filtering [ 14 ]-[ 18 ], and analyzing smoothness on graphs [ 19 ]. M. Halihal and T. Routtenberg are with the School of Electric al and Computer Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel, e-mail: moradha@post.bgu.ac.il, tirzar@b gu.ac.il.