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 Uncertainty


Laplace Sample Information: Data Informativeness Through a Bayesian Lens

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately estimating the informativeness of individual samples in a dataset is an important objective in deep learning, as it can guide sample selection, which can improve model efficiency and accuracy by removing redundant or potentially harmful samples. We propose Laplace Sample Information (LSI) measure of sample informativeness grounded in information theory widely applicable across model architectures and learning settings. LSI leverages a Bayesian approximation to the weight posterior and the KL divergence to measure the change in the parameter distribution induced by a sample of interest from the dataset. We experimentally show that LSI is effective in ordering the data with respect to typicality, detecting mislabeled samples, measuring class-wise informativeness, and assessing dataset difficulty. We demonstrate these capabilities of LSI on image and text data in supervised and unsupervised settings. Moreover, we show that LSI can be computed efficiently through probes and transfers well to the training of large models.


Margin-aware Fuzzy Rough Feature Selection: Bridging Uncertainty Characterization and Pattern Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Fuzzy rough feature selection (FRFS) is an effective means of addressing the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional data. By removing redundant and irrelevant features, FRFS helps mitigate classifier overfitting, enhance generalization performance, and lessen computational overhead. However, most existing FRFS algorithms primarily focus on reducing uncertainty in pattern classification, neglecting that lower uncertainty does not necessarily result in improved classification performance, despite it commonly being regarded as a key indicator of feature selection effectiveness in the FRFS literature. T o bridge uncertainty characterization and pattern classification, we propose a Margin-aware Fuzzy Rough Feature Selection (MAFRFS) framework that considers both the compactness and separation of label classes. MAFRFS effectively reduces uncertainty in pattern classification tasks, while guiding the feature selection towards more separable and discriminative label class structures. Extensive experiments on 15 public datasets demonstrate that MAFRFS is highly scalable and more effective than FRFS. The algorithms developed using MAFRFS outperform six state-of-the-art feature selection algorithms. ITH the rapid advancement of data acquisition technologies and storage solutions, real-world data in various applications often appear in high-dimensional form, accompanied by a multitude of features. Some of these features are essential for learning processes, whereas others may be redundant or irrelevant. The presence of unnecessary features not only reduces the generalization performance of learning models but also increases computational overhead. Feature selection, guided by multiple evaluation criteria, provides an effective mechanism to eliminate irrelevant or redundant features.


Toward Informed AV Decision-Making: Computational Model of Well-being and Trust in Mobility

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For future human-autonomous vehicle (AV) interactions to be effective and smooth, human-aware systems that analyze and align human needs with automation decisions are essential. Achieving this requires systems that account for human cognitive states. We present a novel computational model in the form of a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) that infers the cognitive states of both AV users and other road users, integrating this information into the AV's decision-making process. Specifically, our model captures the well-being of both an AV user and an interacting road user as cognitive states alongside trust. Our DBN models infer beliefs over the AV user's evolving well-being, trust, and intention states, as well as the possible well-being of other road users, based on observed interaction experiences. Using data collected from an interaction study, we refine the model parameters and empirically assess its performance. Finally, we extend our model into a causal inference model (CIM) framework for AV decision-making, enabling the AV to enhance user well-being and trust while balancing these factors with its own operational costs and the well-being of interacting road users. Our evaluation demonstrates the model's effectiveness in accurately predicting user's states and guiding informed, human-centered AV decisions.


Foundations of Unknown-aware Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensuring the reliability and safety of machine learning models in open-world deployment is a central challenge in AI safety. This thesis develops both algorithmic and theoretical foundations to address key reliability issues arising from distributional uncertainty and unknown classes, from standard neural networks to modern foundation models like large language models (LLMs). Traditional learning paradigms, such as empirical risk minimization (ERM), assume no distribution shift between training and inference, often leading to overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. This thesis introduces novel frameworks that jointly optimize for in-distribution accuracy and reliability to unseen data. A core contribution is the development of an unknown-aware learning framework that enables models to recognize and handle novel inputs without labeled OOD data. We propose new outlier synthesis methods, VOS, NPOS, and DREAM-OOD, to generate informative unknowns during training. Building on this, we present SAL, a theoretical and algorithmic framework that leverages unlabeled in-the-wild data to enhance OOD detection under realistic deployment conditions. These methods demonstrate that abundant unlabeled data can be harnessed to recognize and adapt to unforeseen inputs, providing formal reliability guarantees. The thesis also extends reliable learning to foundation models. We develop HaloScope for hallucination detection in LLMs, MLLMGuard for defending against malicious prompts in multimodal models, and data cleaning methods to denoise human feedback used for better alignment. These tools target failure modes that threaten the safety of large-scale models in deployment. Overall, these contributions promote unknown-aware learning as a new paradigm, and we hope it can advance the reliability of AI systems with minimal human efforts.


Sample and Computationally Efficient Continuous-Time Reinforcement Learning with General Function Approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continuous-time reinforcement learning (CTRL) provides a principled framework for sequential decision-making in environments where interactions evolve continuously over time. Despite its empirical success, the theoretical understanding of CTRL remains limited, especially in settings with general function approximation. In this work, we propose a model-based CTRL algorithm that achieves both sample and computational efficiency. Our approach leverages optimism-based confidence sets to establish the first sample complexity guarantee for CTRL with general function approximation, showing that a near-optimal policy can be learned with a suboptimality gap of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{d_{\mathcal{R}} + d_{\mathcal{F}}}N^{-1/2})$ using $N$ measurements, where $d_{\mathcal{R}}$ and $d_{\mathcal{F}}$ denote the distributional Eluder dimensions of the reward and dynamic functions, respectively, capturing the complexity of general function approximation in reinforcement learning. Moreover, we introduce structured policy updates and an alternative measurement strategy that significantly reduce the number of policy updates and rollouts while maintaining competitive sample efficiency. We implemented experiments to backup our proposed algorithms on continuous control tasks and diffusion model fine-tuning, demonstrating comparable performance with significantly fewer policy updates and rollouts.


Propositional Measure Logic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

However, to deal with ambiguity and partial information, new approache s have emerged - examples of which are fuzzy logic, probabilistic modal logic, Bayesian networks and belief-based systems. Even though progress has been made, these approaches genera lly have a limitation: the probability or degree of belief, in general, being kept out of the l ogical semantics, remaining at another level of interpretation on a deterministic model. In other w ords, maintaining the binary characteristic of truth - true or false, with uncertainty being treate d as associated with models, rather than a property of logical language in itself. The proposed logic will be used to solve the problem of tackling certain types of uncertainty and imprecision with Bayesian Networks. The aim is to take advantage of the conceptual and practical benefits of this sy stem in practical situations that have not yet been adequately explored.


Whitened Score Diffusion: A Structured Prior for Imaging Inverse Problems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conventional score-based diffusion models (DMs) may struggle with anisotropic Gaussian diffusion processes due to the required inversion of covariance matrices in the denoising score matching training objective \cite{vincent_connection_2011}. We propose Whitened Score (WS) diffusion models, a novel framework based on stochastic differential equations that learns the Whitened Score function instead of the standard score. This approach circumvents covariance inversion, extending score-based DMs by enabling stable training of DMs on arbitrary Gaussian forward noising processes. WS DMs establish equivalence with flow matching for arbitrary Gaussian noise, allow for tailored spectral inductive biases, and provide strong Bayesian priors for imaging inverse problems with structured noise. We experiment with a variety of computational imaging tasks using the CIFAR and CelebA ($64\times64$) datasets and demonstrate that WS diffusion priors trained on anisotropic Gaussian noising processes consistently outperform conventional diffusion priors based on isotropic Gaussian noise. Our code is open-sourced at \href{https://github.com/jeffreyalido/wsdiffusion}{\texttt{github.com/jeffreyalido/wsdiffusion}}.


Scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo: fast uncertainty estimation beyond deep ensembles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This work introduces a new method called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior, and the algorithm is a parallel implementation of a consistent (asymptotically unbiased) Bayesian deep learning algorithm: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) or Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The method is motivated theoretically, and its utility is demonstrated on practical examples: MNIST, CIFAR, IMDb. A systematic numerical study reveals that parallel implementations of SMC and MCMC are comparable to serial implementations in terms of performance and total cost, and they achieve accuracy at or beyond the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods like deep ensembles at convergence, along with substantially improved uncertainty quantification (UQ)--in particular, epistemic UQ. But even parallel implementations are expensive, with an irreducible time barrier much larger than the cost of the MAP estimator. Compressing time further leads to rapid degradation of accuracy, whereas UQ remains valuable. By anchoring to a point estimator we can recover accuracy, while retaining valuable UQ, ultimately delivering strong performance across metrics for a cost comparable to the SOTA.


Mixing times of data-augmentation Gibbs samplers for high-dimensional probit regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the convergence properties of popular data-augmentation samplers for Bayesian probit regression. Leveraging recent results on Gibbs samplers for log-concave targets, we provide simple and explicit non-asymptotic bounds on the associated mixing times (in Kullback-Leibler divergence). The bounds depend explicitly on the design matrix and the prior precision, while they hold uniformly over the vector of responses. We specialize the results for different regimes of statistical interest, when both the number of data points $n$ and parameters $p$ are large: in particular we identify scenarios where the mixing times remain bounded as $n,p\to\infty$, and ones where they do not. The results are shown to be tight (in the worst case with respect to the responses) and provide guidance on choices of prior distributions that provably lead to fast mixing. An empirical analysis based on coupling techniques suggests that the bounds are effective in predicting practically observed behaviours.


Uncertainty Quantification for Prior-Data Fitted Networks using Martingale Posteriors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as promising foundation models for prediction from tabular data sets, achieving state-of-the-art performance on small to moderate data sizes without tuning. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, they do not provide any uncertainty quantification for predictive means, quantiles, or similar quantities. We propose a principled and efficient sampling procedure to construct Bayesian posteriors for such estimates based on Martingale posteriors, and prove its convergence. Several simulated and real-world data examples showcase the uncertainty quantification of our method in inference applications.