Achieving fully autonomous exploration and navigation remains a critical challenge in robotics, requiring integrated solutions for localisation, mapping, decision-making and motion planning. Existing approaches either rely on strict navigation rules lacking adaptability or on pre-training, which requires large datasets. These AI methods are often computationally intensive or based on static assumptions, limiting their adaptability in dynamic or unknown environments. This paper introduces a bio-inspired agent based on the Active Inference Framework (AIF), which unifies mapping, localisation, and adaptive decision-making for autonomous navigation, including exploration and goal-reaching. Our model creates and updates a topological map of the environment in real-time, planning goal-directed trajectories to explore or reach objectives without requiring pre-training. Key contributions include a probabilistic reasoning framework for interpretable navigation, robust adaptability to dynamic changes, and a modular ROS2 architecture compatible with existing navigation systems. Our method was tested in simulated and real-world environments. The agent successfully explores large-scale simulated environments and adapts to dynamic obstacles and drift, proving to be comparable to other exploration strategies such as Gbplanner, FAEL and Frontiers. This approach offers a scalable and transparent approach for navigating complex, unstructured environments.

Learning stochastic functions from partially observed context-target pairs is a fundamental problem in probabilistic modeling. Traditional models like Gaussian Processes (GPs) face scalability issues with large datasets and assume Gaussianity, limiting their applicability. While Neural Processes (NPs) offer more flexibility, they struggle with capturing complex, multi-modal target distributions. Neural Diffusion Processes (NDPs) enhance expressivity through a learned diffusion process but rely solely on conditional signals in the denoising network, resulting in weak input coupling from an unconditional forward process and semantic mismatch at the diffusion endpoint. In this work, we propose Neural Bridge Processes (NBPs), a novel method for modeling stochastic functions where inputs x act as dynamic anchors for the entire diffusion trajectory. By reformulating the forward kernel to explicitly depend on x, NBP enforces a constrained path that strictly terminates at the supervised target. This approach not only provides stronger gradient signals but also guarantees endpoint coherence. We validate NBPs on synthetic data, EEG signal regression and image regression tasks, achieving substantial improvements over baselines. These results underscore the effectiveness of DDPM-style bridge sampling in enhancing both performance and theoretical consistency for structured prediction tasks.

Quantum magnetic sensing based on spin systems has emerged as a new paradigm for detecting ultra-weak magnetic fields with unprecedented sensitivity, revitalizing applications in navigation, geo-localization, biology, and beyond. At the heart of quantum magnetic sensing, from the protocol perspective, lies the design of optimal sensing parameters to manifest and then estimate the underlying signals of interest (SoI). Existing studies on this front mainly rely on adaptive algorithms based on black-box AI models or formula-driven principled searches. However, when the SoI spans a wide range and the quantum sensor has physical constraints, these methods may fail to converge efficiently or optimally, resulting in prolonged interrogation times and reduced sensing accuracy. In this work, we report the design of a new protocol using a two-stage optimization method. In the 1st Stage, a Bayesian neural network with a fixed set of sensing parameters is used to narrow the range of SoI. In the 2nd Stage, a federated reinforcement learning agent is designed to fine-tune the sensing parameters within a reduced search space. The proposed protocol is developed and evaluated in a challenging context of single-shot readout of an NV-center electron spin under a constrained total sensing time budget; and yet it achieves significant improvements in both accuracy and resource efficiency for wide-range D.C. magnetic field estimation compared to the state of the art.

In this work, we evaluate the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) in building Bayesian Networks (BNs) by approximating domain expert priors. LLMs have demonstrated potential as factual knowledge bases; however, their capability to generate probabilistic knowledge about real-world events remains understudied. We explore utilizing the probabilistic knowledge inherent in LLMs to derive probability estimates for statements regarding events and their relationships within a BN. Using LLMs in this context allows for the parameterization of BNs, enabling probabilistic modeling within specific domains. Our experiments on eighty publicly available Bayesian Networks, from healthcare to finance, demonstrate that querying LLMs about the conditional probabilities of events provides meaningful results when compared to baselines, including random and uniform distributions, as well as approaches based on next-token generation probabilities. We explore how these LLM-derived distributions can serve as expert priors to refine distributions extracted from data, especially when data is scarce. Overall, this work introduces a promising strategy for automatically constructing Bayesian Networks by combining probabilistic knowledge extracted from LLMs with real-world data. Additionally, we establish the first comprehensive baseline for assessing LLM performance in extracting probabilistic knowledge.

Decision support systems are designed to assist human experts in classification tasks by providing conformal prediction sets derived from a pre-trained model. This human-AI collaboration has demonstrated enhanced classification performance compared to using either the model or the expert independently. In this study, we focus on the selection of instance-specific experts from a pool of multiple human experts, contrasting it with existing research that typically focuses on single-expert scenarios. We characterize the conditions under which multiple experts can benefit from the conformal sets. With the insight that only certain experts may be relevant for each instance, we explore the problem of subset selection and introduce a greedy algorithm that utilizes conformal sets to identify the subset of expert predictions that will be used in classifying an instance. This approach is shown to yield better performance compared to naive methods for human subset selection. Based on real expert predictions from the CIFAR-10H and ImageNet-16H datasets, our simulation study indicates that our proposed greedy algorithm achieves near-optimal subsets, resulting in improved classification performance among multiple experts.

We introduce a modular prompting framework that supports safer and more adaptive use of large language models (LLMs) across dynamic, user-centered tasks. Grounded in human learning theory, particularly the Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD), our method combines a natural language boundary prompt with a control schema encoded with fuzzy scaffolding logic and adaptation rules. This architecture enables LLMs to modulate behavior in response to user state without requiring fine-tuning or external orchestration. In a simulated intelligent tutoring setting, the framework improves scaffolding quality, adaptivity, and instructional alignment across multiple models, outperforming standard prompting baselines. Evaluation is conducted using rubric-based LLM graders at scale. While initially developed for education, the framework has shown promise in other interaction-heavy domains, such as procedural content generation for games. Designed for safe deployment, it provides a reusable methodology for structuring interpretable, goal-aligned LLM behavior in uncertain or evolving contexts.

Structural causal models describe how the components of a robotic system interact. They provide both structural and functional information about the relationships that are present in the system. The structural information outlines the variables among which there is interaction. The functional information describes how such interactions work, via equations or learned models. In this paper we find that learning the functional relationships while accounting for the uncertainty about the structural information leads to more robust dynamics models which improves downstream planning, while using significantly lower computational resources. This in contrast with common model-learning methods that ignore the causal structure and fail to leverage the sparsity of interactions in robotic systems. We achieve this by estimating a causal structure distribution that is used to sample causal graphs that inform the latent-space representations in an encoder-multidecoder probabilistic model. We show that our model can be used to learn the dynamics of a robot, which together with a sampling-based planner can be used to perform new tasks in novel environments, provided an objective function for the new requirement is available. We validate our method using manipulators and mobile robots in both simulation and the real-world. Additionally, we validate the learned dynamics' adaptability and increased robustness to corrupted inputs and changes in the environment, which is highly desirable in challenging real-world robotics scenarios. Video: https://youtu.be/X6k5t7OOnNc.

There, demand is highly intermittent and bursty: long runs of zeros, with islands of high counts.

It has been long argued that, because of inherent ambiguity and noise, the brain needs to represent uncertainty in the form of probability distributions. The neural encoding of such distributions remains however highly controversial. Here we present a novel circuit model for representing multidimensional real-valued distributions using a spike based spatio-temporal code. Our model combines the computational advantages of the currently competing models for probabilistic codes and exhibits realistic neural responses along a variety of classic measures. Furthermore, the model highlights the challenges associated with interpreting neural activity in relation to behavioral uncertainty and points to alternative population-level approaches for the experimental validation of distributed representations. Core brain computations, such as sensory perception, have been successfully characterized as probabilistic inference, whereby sensory stimuli are interpreted in terms of the objects or features that gave rise to them [1, 2].

Let $S$ be a finite set, and $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ an i.i.d. uniform sample from $S$. To estimate the size $|S|$, without further structure, one can wait for repeats and use the birthday problem. This requires a sample size of the order $|S|^\frac{1}{2}$. On the other hand, if $S=\{1,2,\ldots,|S|\}$, the maximum of the sample blown up by $n/(n-1)$ gives an efficient estimator based on any growing sample size. This paper gives refinements that interpolate between these extremes. A general non-asymptotic theory is developed. This includes estimating the volume of a compact convex set, the unseen species problem, and a host of testing problems that follow from the question `Is this new observation a typical pick from a large prespecified population?' We also treat regression style predictors. A general theorem gives non-parametric finite $n$ error bounds in all cases.