The development and evaluation of social capabilities in AI agents require complex environments where competitive and cooperative behaviours naturally emerge. While game-theoretic properties can explain why certain teams or agent populations outperform others, more abstract behaviours, such as convention following, are harder to control in training and evaluation settings. The Melting Pot contest is a social AI evaluation suite designed to assess the cooperation capabilities of AI systems. In this paper, we apply a Bayesian approach known as Measurement Layouts to infer the capability profiles of multi-agent systems in the Melting Pot contest. We show that these capability profiles not only predict future performance within the Melting Pot suite but also reveal the underlying prosocial abilities of agents. Our analysis indicates that while higher prosocial capabilities sometimes correlate with better performance, this is not a universal trend-some lower-scoring agents exhibit stronger cooperation abilities. Furthermore, we find that top-performing contest submissions are more likely to achieve high scores in scenarios where prosocial capabilities are not required. These findings, together with reports that the contest winner used a hard-coded solution tailored to specific environments, suggest that at least one top-performing team may have optimised for conditions where cooperation was not necessary, potentially exploiting limitations in the evaluation framework. We provide recommendations for improving the annotation of cooperation demands and propose future research directions to account for biases introduced by different testing environments. Our results demonstrate that Measurement Layouts offer both strong predictive accuracy and actionable insights, contributing to a more transparent and generalisable approach to evaluating AI systems in complex social settings.

Abstract--This work proposes an evidence-retrieval mechanism for uncertainty-aware decision-making that replaces a single global cutoff with an evidence-conditioned, instance-adaptive criterion. For each test instance, proximal exemplars are retrieved in an embedding space; their predictive distributions are fused via Dempster-Shafer theory. Because the supporting evidences are explicit, decisions are transparent and auditable. Experiments on CIF AR-10/100 with BiT and ViT backbones show higher or comparable uncertainty-aware performance with materially fewer confidently incorrect outcomes and a sustainable review load compared with applying threshold on prediction entropy. Notably, only a few evidences are sufficient to realize these gains; increasing the evidence set yields only modest changes. These results indicate that evidence-conditioned tagging provides a more reliable and interpretable alternative to fixed prediction entropy thresholds for operational uncertainty-aware decision-making. N the landscape of modern artificial intelligence (AI), the pursuit of predictive accuracy has driven neural networks (NNs) to achieve superhuman performance across a multitude of domains. However, in many real-world applications, particularly those with high stakes, a correct prediction is only part of the requirement. This is crucial because most conventional machine learning (ML) models issue single-point predictions. In particular, NNs typically output class probabilities through a softmax layer, which represent only a deterministic point estimate conditioned on the model's fixed parameters and training data. These probabilities reflect the model's relative preference among classes given its fixed state after training. High probability does not necessarily imply that the prediction is reliable. This is where uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods emerges as a critical paradigm.

V alue iteration (VI) [4] is the practically most used method for reliable analysis of probabilistic systems, in particular Markov decision processes (MDPs) [21] and stochastic games (SGs) [8]. It is used in the state-of-the-art model checkers such as Prism [18] and Storm [11] as the default method due to its better practical scalability, compared to strategy iteration or linear/quadratic programming [14, 19]. The price to pay are issues with precision. Firstly, while other methods yield precise results in theory (omitting floating-point issues), VI converges to the exact result only in the limit. Secondly, the precision of the intermediate iterations was until recently an open question. Given the importance of reliable precision in verification, many recent works focused on modifying VI so that the imprecision can be bounded, yielding a stopping criterion. Consequently, (i) the computed result is reliable, and (ii) the procedure can even terminate earlier whenever the desired precision is achieved.

Inferring parameters of high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) poses significant computational and inferential challenges, primarily due to the curse of dimensionality and the inherent limitations of traditional numerical methods. This paper introduces a novel two-stage Bayesian framework that synergistically integrates training, physics-based deep kernel learning (DKL) with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) to robustly infer unknown PDE parameters and quantify their uncertainties from sparse, exact observations. The first stage leverages physics-based DKL to train a surrogate model, which jointly yields an optimized neural network feature extractor and robust initial estimates for the PDE parameters. In the second stage, with the neural network weights fixed, HMC is employed within a full Bayesian framework to efficiently sample the joint posterior distribution of the kernel hyperparameters and the PDE parameters. Numerical experiments on canonical and high-dimensional inverse PDE problems demonstrate that our framework accurately estimates parameters, provides reliable uncertainty estimates, and effectively addresses challenges of data sparsity and model complexity, offering a robust and scalable tool for diverse scientific and engineering applications.

High-quality annotated data is a cornerstone of modern Natural Language Processing (NLP). While recent methods begin to leverage diverse annotation sources-including Large Language Models (LLMs), Small Language Models (SLMs), and human experts-they often focus narrowly on the labeling step itself. A critical gap remains in the holistic process control required to manage these sources dynamically, addressing complex scheduling and quality-cost trade-offs in a unified manner. Inspired by real-world crowdsourcing companies, we introduce CrowdAgent, a multi-agent system that provides end-to-end process control by integrating task assignment, data annotation, and quality/cost management. It implements a novel methodology that rationally assigns tasks, enabling LLMs, SLMs, and human experts to advance synergistically in a collaborative annotation workflow. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CrowdAgent through extensive experiments on six diverse multimodal classification tasks. The source code and video demo are available at https://github.com/QMMMS/CrowdAgent.

Abstract--We present a graph-regularized learning of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) in distributed settings with heterogeneous and limited local data. The method exploits a provided similarity graph to guide parameter sharing among nodes, avoiding the transfer of raw data. The resulting model allows for flexible aggregation of neighbors' parameters and outperforms both centralized and locally trained GMMs in heterogeneous, low-sample regimes. We propose GraphFed-EM, a federated Gaussian Mixture Model in which local nodes collaboratively learn a personalized probabilistic model through graph-based regularization, without exchanging raw data. The algorithm is adapted for decentralized settings, incorporating an aggregation step that promotes parameter similarity among connected nodes.

Trajectory prediction is central to the safe and seamless operation of autonomous vehicles (AVs). In deployment, however, prediction models inevitably face distribution shifts between training data and real-world conditions, where rare or underrepresented traffic scenarios induce out-of-distribution (OOD) cases. While most prior OOD detection research in AVs has concentrated on computer vision tasks such as object detection and segmentation, trajectory-level OOD detection remains largely underexplored. A recent study formulated this problem as a quickest change detection (QCD) task, providing formal guarantees on the trade-off between detection delay and false alarms [1]. Building on this foundation, we propose a new framework that introduces adaptive mechanisms to achieve robust detection in complex driving environments. Empirical analysis across multiple real-world datasets reveals that prediction errors -- even on in-distribution samples -- exhibit mode-dependent distributions that evolve over time with dataset-specific dynamics. By explicitly modeling these error modes, our method achieves substantial improvements in both detection delay and false alarm rates. Comprehensive experiments on established trajectory prediction benchmarks show that our framework significantly outperforms prior UQ- and vision-based OOD approaches in both accuracy and computational efficiency, offering a practical path toward reliable, driving-aware autonomy.

Recent advances in spatial omics technologies have revolutionized our ability to study biological systems with unprecedented resolution. By preserving the spatial context of molecular measurements, these methods enable comprehensive mapping of cellular het erogeneity, tissue architecture, and dynamic biological processes in developmental biology, neuroscience, oncology, and evolutionary studies . This review highlights a systematic overview of the continuous advancements in both technology and computational a lgorithms that are paving the way for a deeper, more systematic comprehension of the structure and mechanisms of mammalian tissues and organs by using spatial multi - omics . Our viewpoint demonstrates how advanced machine learning algorithms and multi - omics integrative modeling can decode complex biological processes, including the spatial organization and topological relationships of cells during organ development, as well as key molecular signatures and regulatory networks underlying tumorigenesis and metas tasis . Finally, we outline future directions for technological innovation and modeling insights of spatial omics in precision medicine.

Discrete Bayesian networks (DBNs) provide a broadly useful framework for modeling dependence structures in multivariate categorical data. There is a vast literature on methods for inferring conditional probabilities and graphical structure in DBNs, but data sparsity and parametric assumptions are major practical issues. In this article, we detail a comprehensive Bayesian framework for learning DBNs. First, we propose a hierarchical prior for the conditional probabilities that enables complicated interactions between parent variables and stability in sparse regimes. We give a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm utilizing parallel Langevin proposals to generate exact posterior samples, avoiding the pitfalls of variational approximations. Moreover, we verify that the full conditional distribution of the concentration parameters is log-concave under mild conditions, facilitating efficient sampling. We then propose two methods for learning network structures, including parent sets, Markov blankets, and DAGs, from categorical data. The first cycles through individual edges each MCMC iteration, whereas the second updates the entire structure as a single step. We evaluate the accuracy, power, and MCMC performance of our methods on several simulation studies. Finally, we apply our methodology to uncover prognostic network structure from primary breast cancer samples.

Scientific machine learning increasingly uses spectral methods to understand physical systems. Current spectral learning approaches provide only point estimates without uncertainty quantification, limiting their use in safety-critical applications where prediction confidence is essential. Parametric matrix models have emerged as powerful tools for scientific machine learning, achieving exceptional performance by learning governing equations. However, their deterministic nature limits deployment in uncertainty quantification applications. We introduce Bayesian parametric matrix models (B-PMMs), a principled framework that extends PMMs to provide uncertainty estimates while preserving their spectral structure and computational efficiency. B-PMM addresses the fundamental challenge of quantifying uncertainty in matrix eigenvalue problems where standard Bayesian methods fail due to the geometric constraints of spectral decomposition. The theoretical contributions include: (i) adaptive spectral decomposition with regularized matrix perturbation bounds that characterize eigenvalue uncertainty propagation, (ii) structured variational inference algorithms using manifold-aware matrix-variate Gaussian posteriors that respect Hermitian constraints, and (iii) finite-sample calibration guarantees with explicit dependence on spectral gaps and problem conditioning. Experimental validation across matrix dimensions from 5x5 to 500x500 with perfect convergence rates demonstrates that B-PMMs achieve exceptional uncertainty calibration (ECE < 0.05) while maintaining favorable scaling. The framework exhibits graceful degradation under spectral ill-conditioning and provides reliable uncertainty estimates even in near-degenerate regimes. The proposed framework supports robust spectral learning in uncertainty-critical domains and lays the groundwork for broader Bayesian spectral machine learning.