Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, a well known major failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model variables (sometimes severely) and provides no information about model variable covariance. We generalize linear response methods from statistical physics to deliver accurate uncertainty estimates for model variables--both for individual variables and coherently across variables. We call our method linear response variational Bayes (LRVB). When the MFVB posterior approximation is in the exponential family, LRVB has a simple, analytic form, even for non-conjugate models. Indeed, we make no assumptions about the form of the true posterior. We demonstrate the accuracy and scalability of our method on a range of models for both simulated and real data.

Calculation of the log-normalizer is a major computational obstacle in applications of log-linear models with large output spaces. The problem of fast normalizer computation has therefore attracted significant attention in the theoretical and applied machine learning literature. In this paper, we analyze a recently proposed technique known as "self-normalization", which introduces a regularization term in training to penalize log normalizers for deviating from zero. This makes it possible to use unnormalized model scores as approximate probabilities. Empirical evidence suggests that self-normalization is extremely effective, but a theoretical understanding of why it should work, and how generally it can be applied, is largely lacking. We prove upper bounds on the loss in accuracy due to self-normalization, describe classes of input distributions that self-normalize easily, and construct explicit examples of high-variance input distributions. Our theoretical results make predictions about the difficulty of fitting self-normalized models to several classes of distributions, and we conclude with empirical validation of these predictions.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

The modern scale of data has brought new challenges to Bayesian inference. In particular, conventional MCMC algorithms are computationally very expensive for large data sets. A promising approach to solve this problem is embarrassingly parallel MCMC (EP-MCMC), which first partitions the data into multiple subsets and runs independent sampling algorithms on each subset. The subset posterior draws are then aggregated via some combining rules to obtain the final approximation. Existing EP-MCMC algorithms are limited by approximation accuracy and difficulty in resampling. In this article, we propose a new EP-MCMC algorithm P ARTthat solves these problems. The new algorithm applies random partition trees to combine the subset posterior draws, which is distribution-free, easy to re-sample from and can adapt to multiple scales. We provide theoretical justification and extensive experiments illustrating empirical performance.

This approach motivates interpretable yet expressive models that are capable of capturing a variety of complex dependence structures.

The inference of others' intentions is called "theory of mind"

We consider the problem of finding M best diverse solutions of energy minimization problems for graphical models. Contrary to the sequential method of Batra et al., which greedily finds one solution after another, we infer all M solutions jointly. It was shown recently that such jointly inferred labelings not only have smaller total energy but also qualitatively outperform the sequentially obtained ones. The only obstacle for using this new technique is the complexity of the corresponding inference problem, since it is considerably slower algorithm than the method of Batra et al. In this work we show that the joint inference of M best diverse solutions can be formulated as a submodular energy minimization if the original MAP-inference problem is submodular, hence fast inference techniques can be used. In addition to the theoretical results we provide practical algorithms that outperform the current state-of-the-art and can be used in both submodular and non-submodular case.