Uncertainty
Bayesian Learning via Q-Exponential Process
Regularization is one of the most fundamental topics in optimization, statistics and machine learning. To get sparsity in estimating a parameter u Rd, an โq penalty term, u q, is usually added to the objective function. What is the probabilistic distribution corresponding to such โq penalty? What is the correct stochastic process corresponding to u q when we model functions u Lq? This is important for statistically modeling high-dimensional objects such as images, with penalty to preserve certain properties, e.g.
Approximate inference of marginals using the IBIA framework
Exact inference of marginals in probabilistic graphical models (PGM) is known to be intractable, necessitating the use of approximate methods. Most of the existing variational techniques perform iterative message passing in loopy graphs which is slow to converge for many benchmarks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for marginal inference that is based on the incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA) paradigm. Our algorithm converts the PGM into a sequence of linked clique tree forests (SLCTF) with bounded clique sizes, and then uses a heuristic belief update algorithm to infer the marginals. For the special case of Bayesian networks, we show that if the incremental build step in IBIA uses the topological order of variables then (a) the prior marginals are consistent in all CTFs in the SLCTF and (b) the posterior marginals are consistent once all evidence variables are added to the SLCTF. In our approach, the belief propagation step is non-iterative and the accuracy-complexity trade-off is controlled using user-defined clique size bounds. Results for several benchmark sets from recent UAI competitions show that our method gives either better or comparable accuracy than existing variational and sampling based methods, with smaller runtimes.
AFast Convoluted Story: Scaling Probabilistic Inference for Integer Arithmetic
As illustrated by the success of integer linear programming, linear integer arithmetic is a powerful tool for modelling combinatorial problems. Furthermore, the probabilistic extension of linear programming has been used to formulate problems in neurosymbolic AI. However, two key problems persist that prevent the adoption of neurosymbolic techniques beyond toy problems. First, probabilistic inference is inherently hard, #P-hard to be precise. Second, the discrete nature of integers renders the construction of meaningful gradients challenging, which is problematic for learning. In order to mitigate these issues, we formulate linear arithmetic over integer-valued random variables as tensor manipulations that can be implemented in a straightforward fashion using modern deep learning libraries. At the core of our formulation lies the observation that the addition of two integer-valued random variables can be performed by adapting the fast Fourier transform to probabilities in the log-domain. By relying on tensor operations we obtain a differentiable data structure, which unlocks, virtually for free, gradient-based learning. In our experimental validation we show that tensorising probabilistic linear integer arithmetic and leveraging the fast Fourier transform allows us to push the state of the art by several orders of magnitude in terms of inference and learning times.
ABayesian Approach for Personalized Federated Learning in Heterogeneous Settings
Federated learning (FL), through its privacy-preserving collaborative learning approach, has significantly empowered decentralized devices. However, constraints in either data and/or computational resources among participating clients introduce several challenges in learning, including the inability to train large model architectures, heightened risks of overfitting, and more. In this work, we present a novel FL framework grounded in Bayesian learning to address these challenges. Our approach involves training personalized Bayesian models at each client tailored to the unique complexities of the clients' datasets and efficiently collaborating across these clients. By leveraging Bayesian neural networks and their uncertainty quantification capabilities, our local training procedure robustly learns from small datasets. And the novel collaboration procedure utilizing priors in the functional (output) space of the networks facilitates collaboration across models of varying sizes, enabling the framework to adapt well in heterogeneous data and computational settings. Furthermore, we present a differentially private version of the algorithm, accompanied by formal differential privacy guarantees that apply without any assumptions on the learning algorithm. Through experiments on popular FL datasets, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms strong baselines in both homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, and under strict privacy constraints.
Analyzing Generalization of Neural Networks through Loss Path Kernels
Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in real-world applications, making it critical to ensure their ability to adapt to new, unseen data. In this paper, we study the generalization capability of neural networks trained with (stochastic) gradient flow. We establish a new connection between the loss dynamics of gradient flow and general kernel machines by proposing a new kernel, called loss path kernel. This kernel measures the similarity between two data points by evaluating the agreement between loss gradients along the path determined by the gradient flow. Based on this connection, we derive a new generalization upper bound that applies to general neural network architectures. This new bound is tight and strongly correlated with the true generalization error. We apply our results to guide the design of neural architecture search (NAS) and demonstrate favorable performance compared with state-of-the-art NAS algorithms through numerical experiments.