Pass$@k$ is widely used to report performance for LLM reasoning, but it often yields unstable, misleading rankings, especially when the number of trials (samples) is limited and compute is constrained. We present a principled Bayesian evaluation framework that replaces Pass$@k$ and average accuracy over $N$ trials (avg$@N$) with posterior estimates of a model's underlying success probability and credible intervals, yielding stable rankings and a transparent decision rule for differences. Evaluation outcomes are modeled as categorical (not just 0/1) with a Dirichlet prior, giving closed-form expressions for the posterior mean and uncertainty of any weighted rubric and enabling the use of prior evidence when appropriate. Theoretically, under a uniform prior, the Bayesian posterior mean is order-equivalent to average accuracy (Pass$@1$), explaining its empirical robustness while adding principled uncertainty. Empirically, in simulations with known ground-truth success rates and on AIME'24/'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25, the Bayesian/avg procedure achieves faster convergence and greater rank stability than Pass$@k$ and recent variants, enabling reliable comparisons at far smaller sample counts. The framework clarifies when observed gaps are statistically meaningful (non-overlapping credible intervals) versus noise, and it naturally extends to graded, rubric-based evaluations. Together, these results recommend replacing Pass$@k$ for LLM evaluation and ranking with a posterior-based, compute-efficient protocol that unifies binary and non-binary evaluation while making uncertainty explicit. Code is available at https://mohsenhariri.github.io/bayes-kit

The growing availability of large and complex datasets has increased interest in temporal stochastic processes that can capture stylized facts such as marginal skewness, non-Gaussian tails, long memory, and even non-Markovian dynamics. While such models are often easy to simulate from, parameter estimation remains challenging. Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a promising way forward, but existing methods typically require large training datasets or complex architectures and frequently yield confidence (credible) regions that fail to attain their nominal values, raising doubts on the reliability of estimates for the very features that motivate the use of these models. To address these challenges, we propose a fast and accurate, sample-efficient SBI framework for amortized posterior inference applicable to intractable stochastic processes. The proposed approach relies on two main steps: first, we learn the posterior density by decomposing it sequentially across parameter dimensions. Then, we use Chebyshev polynomial approximations to efficiently generate independent posterior samples, enabling accurate inference even when Markov chain Monte Carlo methods mix poorly. We further develop novel diagnostic tools for SBI in this context, as well as post-hoc calibration techniques; the latter not only lead to performance improvements of the learned inferential tool, but also to the ability to reuse it directly with new time series of varying lengths, thus amortizing the training cost. We demonstrate the method's effectiveness on trawl processes, a class of flexible infinitely divisible models that generalize univariate Gaussian processes, applied to energy demand data.

The task of learning a diffusion-based neural sampler for drawing samples from an unnormalized target distribution can be viewed as a stochastic optimal control problem on path measures. However, the training of neural samplers can be challenging when the target distribution is multimodal with significant barriers separating the modes, potentially leading to mode collapse. We propose a framework named \textbf{Proximal Diffusion Neural Sampler (PDNS)} that addresses these challenges by tackling the stochastic optimal control problem via proximal point method on the space of path measures. PDNS decomposes the learning process into a series of simpler subproblems that create a path gradually approaching the desired distribution. This staged procedure traces a progressively refined path to the desired distribution and promotes thorough exploration across modes. For a practical and efficient realization, we instantiate each proximal step with a proximal weighted denoising cross-entropy (WDCE) objective. We demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of PDNS through extensive experiments on both continuous and discrete sampling tasks, including challenging scenarios in molecular dynamics and statistical physics.

As an example, consider the problem of tracking an autonomous robot with an unknown starting position in a d d grid (Figure 1). Suppose the agent's policy is known, and an observer sees that the agent moved a step without colliding into a wall. This information indicates how the observer should update their beliefs about the agent's position. Tracking these belief states can be challenging when they are either continuous or too large to enumerate (Solinas et al., 2023)--even when the agent's policy and the environment dynamics are known. A common approach frames belief state modeling as a Bayesian filtering problem in which a posterior is maintained and updated with each new observation. Classical Bayesian filters, such as the Kalman Filter (Kalman, 1960) and its nonlinear variants (e.g., Extended and Unscented Kalman Filters (Sorenson, 1985; Julier & Uhlmann, 2004)), assume that the underlying distributions are unimodal and approximately Gaussian. While computationally efficient, this limits their applicability in settings that do not satisfy these assumptions.

Bayesian inference for doubly-intractable probabilistic graphical models typically involves variations of the exchange algorithm or approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. However, existing methods for both classes of algorithms require either perfect samplers or sequential samplers for complex models, which are often either not available, or suffer from poor mixing, especially in high dimensions. We develop a method that does not require perfect or sequential sampling, and can be applied to both classes of methods: exact and approximate MCMC. The key to our approach is to utilize the tractable independence model underlying an intractable probabilistic graphical model for the purpose of constructing a finite sample unbiased Monte Carlo (and not MCMC) estimate of the Metropolis--Hastings ratio. This innovation turns out to be crucial for scalability in high dimensions. The method is demonstrated on the Ising model. Gradient-based alternatives to construct a proposal, such as Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approaches, also arise as a natural corollary to our general procedure, and are demonstrated as well.

Regularization is a central tool for addressing ill-posedness in inverse problems and statistical estimation, with the choice of a suitable penalty often determining the reliability and interpretability of downstream solutions. While recent work has characterized optimal regularizers for well-specified data distributions, practical deployments are often complicated by distributional uncertainty and the need to enforce structural constraints such as convexity. In this paper, we introduce a framework for distributionally robust optimal regularization, which identifies regularizers that remain effective under perturbations of the data distribution. Our approach leverages convex duality to reformulate the underlying distributionally robust optimization problem, eliminating the inner maximization and yielding formulations that are amenable to numerical computation. We show how the resulting robust regularizers interpolate between memorization of the training distribution and uniform priors, providing insights into their behavior as robustness parameters vary. For example, we show how certain ambiguity sets, such as those based on the Wasserstein-1 distance, naturally induce regularity in the optimal regularizer by promoting regularizers with smaller Lipschitz constants. We further investigate the setting where regularizers are required to be convex, formulating a convex program for their computation and illustrating their stability with respect to distributional shifts. Taken together, our results provide both theoretical and computational foundations for designing regularizers that are reliable under model uncertainty and structurally constrained for robust deployment.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly applied to safety-critical tasks in resource-constrained environments, such as video-based driver action and intention recognition. While last layer probabilistic deep learning (LL-PDL) methods can detect out-of-distribution (OOD) instances, their performance varies. As an alternative to last layer approaches, we propose extending pre-trained DNNs with transformation layers to produce multiple latent representations to estimate the uncertainty. W e evaluate our latent uncertainty representation (LUR) and repulsively trained LUR (RLUR) approaches against eight PDL methods across four video-based driver action and intention recognition datasets, comparing classification performance, calibration, and uncertainty-based OOD detection. W e also contribute 28,000 frame-level action labels and 1,194 video-level intention labels for the NuScenes dataset. Our results show that LUR and RLUR achieve comparable in-distribution classification performance to other LL-PDL approaches. F or uncertainty-based OOD detection, LUR matches top-performing PDL methods while being more efficient to train and easier to tune than approaches that require Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampling or repulsive training procedures.

The Learning With Disagreements (LeWiDi) 2025 shared task aims to model annotator disagreement through soft label distribution prediction and perspectivist evaluation, which focuses on modeling individual annotators. We adapt DisCo (Distribution from Context), a neural architecture that jointly models item-level and annotator-level label distributions, and present detailed analysis and improvements. In this paper, we extend DisCo by introducing annotator metadata embeddings, enhancing input representations, and multi-objective training losses to capture disagreement patterns better. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate substantial improvements in both soft and perspectivist evaluation metrics across three datasets. We also conduct in-depth calibration and error analyses that reveal when and why disagreement-aware modeling improves. Our findings show that disagreement can be better captured by conditioning on annotator demographics and by optimizing directly for distributional metrics, yielding consistent improvements across datasets.

Conventional preference learning methods often prioritize opinions held more widely when aggregating preferences from multiple evaluators. This may result in policies that are biased in favor of some types of opinions or groups and susceptible to strategic manipulation. To address this issue, we develop a novel preference learning framework capable of aligning aggregate opinions and policies proportionally with the true population distribution of evaluator preferences. Grounded in social choice theory, our approach infers the feasible set of evaluator population distributions directly from pairwise comparison data. Using these estimates, the algorithm constructs a policy that satisfies foundational axioms from social choice theory, namely monotonicity and Pareto efficiency, as well as our newly-introduced axioms of population-proportional alignment and population-bounded manipulability. Moreover, we propose a soft-max relaxation method that smoothly trade-offs population-proportional alignment with the selection of the Condorcet winner (which beats all other options in pairwise comparisons). Finally, we validate the effectiveness and scalability of our approach through experiments on both tabular recommendation tasks and large language model alignment.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) offer a computationally scalable framework for generative modeling, supporting exact and efficient inference of a wide range of probabilistic queries. While recent advances have significantly improved the expressiveness and scalability of PCs, effectively training their parameters remains a challenge. In particular, a widely used optimization method, full-batch Expectation-Maximization (EM), requires processing the entire dataset before performing a single update, making it ineffective for large datasets. Although empirical extensions to the mini-batch setting, as well as gradient-based mini-batch algorithms, converge faster than full-batch EM, they generally underperform in terms of final likelihood. We investigate this gap by establishing a novel theoretical connection between these practical algorithms and the general EM objective. Our analysis reveals a fundamental issue that existing mini-batch EM and gradient-based methods fail to properly regularize distribution changes, causing each update to effectively ``overfit'' the current mini-batch. Motivated by this insight, we introduce anemone, a new mini-batch EM algorithm for PCs. Anemone applies an implicit adaptive learning rate to each parameter, scaled by how much it contributes to the likelihood of the current batch. Across extensive experiments on language, image, and DNA datasets, anemone consistently outperforms existing optimizers in both convergence speed and final performance.