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 Uncertainty


Blind Construction of Angular Power Maps in Massive MIMO Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Channel state information (CSI) acquisition is a challenging problem in massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) networks. Radio maps provide a promising solution for radio resource management by reducing online CSI acquisition. However, conventional approaches for radio map construction require location-labeled CSI data, which is challenging in practice. This paper investigates unsupervised angular power map construction based on large timescale CSI data collected in a massive MIMO network without location labels. A hidden Markov model (HMM) is built to connect the hidden trajectory of a mobile with the CSI evolution of a massive MIMO channel. As a result, the mobile location can be estimated, enabling the construction of an angular power map. We show that under uniform rectilinear mobility with Poisson-distributed base stations (BSs), the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) for localization error can vanish at any signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), whereas when BSs are confined to a limited region, the error remains nonzero even with infinite independent measurements. Based on reference signal received power (RSRP) data collected in a real multi-cell massive MIMO network, an average localization error of 18 meters can be achieved although measurements are mainly obtained from a single serving cell.


Incorporating Expert Knowledge into Bayesian Causal Discovery of Mixtures of Directed Acyclic Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian causal discovery benefits from prior information elicited from domain experts, and in heterogeneous domains any prior knowledge would be badly needed. However, so far prior elicitation approaches have assumed a single causal graph and hence are not suited to heterogeneous domains. We propose a causal elicitation strategy for heterogeneous settings, based on Bayesian experimental design (BED) principles, and a variational mixture structure learning (VaMSL) method -- extending the earlier differentiable Bayesian structure learning (DiBS) method -- to iteratively infer mixtures of causal Bayesian networks (CBNs). We construct an informative graph prior incorporating elicited expert feedback in the inference of mixtures of CBNs. Our proposed method successfully produces a set of alternative causal models (mixture components or clusters), and achieves an improved structure learning performance on heterogeneous synthetic data when informed by a simulated expert. Finally, we demonstrate that our approach is capable of capturing complex distributions in a breast cancer database.


Diffusion-Guided Renormalization of Neural Systems via Tensor Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Far from equilibrium, neural systems self-organize across multiple scales. Exploiting multiscale self-organization in neuroscience and artificial intelligence requires a computational framework for modeling the effective non-equilibrium dynamics of stochastic neural trajectories. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics and representational geometry offer theoretical foundations, but we need scalable data-driven techniques for modeling collective properties of high-dimensional neural networks from partial subsampled observations. Renormalization is a coarse-graining technique central to studying emergent scaling properties of many-body and nonlinear dynamical systems. While widely applied in physics and machine learning, coarse-graining complex dynamical networks remains unsolved, affecting many computational sciences. Recent diffusion-based renormalization, inspired by quantum statistical mechanics, coarse-grains networks near entropy transitions marked by maximal changes in specific heat or information transmission. Here I explore diffusion-based renormalization of neural systems by generating symmetry-breaking representations across scales and offering scalable algorithms using tensor networks. Diffusion-guided renormalization bridges microscale and mesoscale dynamics of dissipative neural systems. For microscales, I developed a scalable graph inference algorithm for discovering community structure from subsampled neural activity. Using community-based node orderings, diffusion-guided renormalization generates renormalization group flow through metagraphs and joint probability functions. Towards mesoscales, diffusion-guided renormalization targets learning the effective non-equilibrium dynamics of dissipative neural trajectories occupying lower-dimensional subspaces, enabling coarse-to-fine control in systems neuroscience and artificial intelligence.


The Alignment Auditor: A Bayesian Framework for Verifying and Refining LLM Objectives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The objectives that Large Language Models (LLMs) implicitly optimize remain dangerously opaque, making trustworthy alignment and auditing a grand challenge. While Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) can infer reward functions from behaviour, existing approaches either produce a single, overconfident reward estimate or fail to address the fundamental ambiguity of the task (non-identifiability). This paper introduces a principled auditing framework that re-frames reward inference from a simple estimation task to a comprehensive process for verification. Our framework leverages Bayesian IRL to not only recover a distribution over objectives but to enable three critical audit capabilities: (i) Quantifying and systematically reducing non-identifiability by demonstrating posterior contraction over sequential rounds of evidence; (ii) Providing actionable, uncertainty-aware diagnostics that expose spurious shortcuts and identify out-of-distribution prompts where the inferred objective cannot be trusted; and (iii) Validating policy-level utility by showing that the refined, low-uncertainty reward can be used directly in RLHF to achieve training dynamics and toxicity reductions comparable to the ground-truth alignment process. Empirically, our framework successfully audits a detoxified LLM, yielding a well-calibrated and interpretable objective that strengthens alignment guarantees. Overall, this work provides a practical toolkit for auditors, safety teams, and regulators to verify what LLMs are truly trying to achieve, moving us toward more trustworthy and accountable AI.


Bayesian Distributional Models of Executive Functioning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study uses controlled simulations with known ground-truth parameters to evaluate how Distributional Latent Variable Models (DLVM) and Bayesian Distributional Active LEarning (DALE) perform in comparison to conventional Independent Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE). DLVM integrates observations across multiple executive function tasks and individuals, allowing parameter estimation even under sparse or incomplete data conditions. DLVM consistently outperformed IMLE, especially under with smaller amounts of data, and converges faster to highly accurate estimates of the true distributions. In a second set of analyses, DALE adaptively guided sampling to maximize information gain, outperforming random sampling and fixed test batteries, particularly within the first 80 trials. These findings establish the advantages of combining DLVM's cross-task inference with DALE's optimal adaptive sampling, providing a principled basis for more efficient cognitive assessments.


Learning for routing: A guided review of recent developments and future directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper reviews the current progress in applying machine learning (ML) tools to solve NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems, with a focus on routing problems such as the traveling salesman problem (TSP) and the vehicle routing problem (VRP). Due to the inherent complexity of these problems, exact algorithms often require excessive computational time to find optimal solutions, while heuristics can only provide approximate solutions without guaranteeing optimality. With the recent success of machine learning models, there is a growing trend in proposing and implementing diverse ML techniques to enhance the resolution of these challenging routing problems. We propose a taxonomy categorizing ML-based routing methods into construction-based and improvement-based approaches, highlighting their applicability to various problem characteristics. This review aims to integrate traditional OR methods with state-of-the-art ML techniques, providing a structured framework to guide future research and address emerging VRP variants.




A Rigorous Link between Deep Ensembles and (Variational) Bayesian Methods Veit D. Wild

Neural Information Processing Systems

We establish the first mathematically rigorous link between Bayesian, variational Bayesian, and ensemble methods. A key step towards this is to reformulate the non-convex optimisation problem typically encountered in deep learning as a convex optimisation in the space of probability measures.