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 Uncertainty



Dynamic Rank Factor Model for Text Streams

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a semi-parametric and dynamic rank factor model for topic modeling, capable of (i) discovering topic prevalence over time, and (ii) learning contemporary multi-scale dependence structures, providing topic and word correlations as a byproduct. The high-dimensional and time-evolving ordinal/rank observations (such as word counts), after an arbitrary monotone transformation, are well accommodated through an underlying dynamic sparse factor model. The framework naturally admits heavy-tailed innovations, capable of inferring abrupt temporal jumps in the importance of topics. Posterior inference is performed through straightforward Gibbs sampling, based on the forward-filtering backward-sampling algorithm. Moreover, an efficient data subsampling scheme is leveraged to speed up inference on massive datasets. The modeling framework is illustrated on two real datasets: the US State of the Union Address and the JSTOR collection from Science .


Spatio-temporal Representations of Uncertainty in Spiking Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

It has been long argued that, because of inherent ambiguity and noise, the brain needs to represent uncertainty in the form of probability distributions. The neural encoding of such distributions remains however highly controversial. Here we present a novel circuit model for representing multidimensional real-valued distributions using a spike based spatio-temporal code. Our model combines the computational advantages of the currently competing models for probabilistic codes and exhibits realistic neural responses along a variety of classic measures. Furthermore, the model highlights the challenges associated with interpreting neural activity in relation to behavioral uncertainty and points to alternative population-level approaches for the experimental validation of distributed representations. Core brain computations, such as sensory perception, have been successfully characterized as probabilistic inference, whereby sensory stimuli are interpreted in terms of the objects or features that gave rise to them [1, 2].