The growing interest in ocean discovery imposes a need for inspection and intervention in confined and demanding environments. Eely's slender shape, in addition to its ability to change its body configurations, makes articulated underwater robots an adequate option for such environments. However, operation of Eely in such environments imposes demanding requirements on the system, as it must deal with uncertain and unstructured environments, extreme environmental conditions, and reduced navigational capabilities. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to assess the risks of losing Eely during two mission scenarios. The goal of this work is to improve Eely's performance and the likelihood of mission success. Sensitivity analysis results are presented in order to demonstrate the causes having the highest impact on losing Eely.

The rapid ascent of artificial intelligence (AI) is often portrayed as a revolution born from computer science and engineering. This narrative, however, obscures a fundamental truth: the theoretical and methodological core of AI is, and has always been, statistical. This paper systematically argues that the field of statistics provides the indispensable foundation for machine learning and modern AI. We deconstruct AI into nine foundational pillars-Inference, Density Estimation, Sequential Learning, Generalization, Representation Learning, Interpretability, Causality, Optimization, and Unification-demonstrating that each is built upon century-old statistical principles. From the inferential frameworks of hypothesis testing and estimation that underpin model evaluation, to the density estimation roots of clustering and generative AI; from the time-series analysis inspiring recurrent networks to the causal models that promise true understanding, we trace an unbroken statistical lineage. While celebrating the computational engines that power modern AI, we contend that statistics provides the brain-the theoretical frameworks, uncertainty quantification, and inferential goals-while computer science provides the brawn-the scalable algorithms and hardware. Recognizing this statistical backbone is not merely an academic exercise, but a necessary step for developing more robust, interpretable, and trustworthy intelligent systems. We issue a call to action for education, research, and practice to re-embrace this statistical foundation. Ignoring these roots risks building a fragile future; embracing them is the path to truly intelligent machines. There is no machine learning without statistical learning; no artificial intelligence without statistical thought.

Stochastic Natural Gradient Variational Inference (NGVI) is a widely used method for approximating posterior distribution in probabilistic models. Despite its empirical success and foundational role in variational inference, its theoretical underpinnings remain limited, particularly in the case of non-conjugate likelihoods. While NGVI has been shown to be a special instance of Stochastic Mirror Descent, and recent work has provided convergence guarantees using relative smoothness and strong convexity for conjugate models, these results do not extend to the non-conjugate setting, where the variational loss becomes non-convex and harder to analyze. In this work, we focus on mean-field parameterization and advance the theoretical understanding of NGVI in three key directions. First, we derive sufficient conditions under which the variational loss satisfies relative smoothness with respect to a suitable mirror map. Second, leveraging this structure, we propose a modified NGVI algorithm incorporating non-Euclidean projections and prove its global non-asymptotic convergence to a stationary point. Finally, under additional structural assumptions about the likelihood, we uncover hidden convexity properties of the variational loss and establish fast global convergence of NGVI to a global optimum. These results provide new insights into the geometry and convergence behavior of NGVI in challenging inference settings.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) enhances the zero-shot robustness under distribution shifts by leveraging unlabeled test data during inference. Despite notable advances, several challenges still limit its broader applicability. First, most methods rely on backpropagation or iterative optimization, which limits scalability and hinders real-time deployment. Second, they lack explicit modeling of class-conditional feature distributions. This modeling is crucial for producing reliable decision boundaries and calibrated predictions, but it remains underexplored due to the lack of both source data and supervision at test time. In this paper, we propose ADAPT, an Advanced Distribution-Aware and backPropagation-free Test-time adaptation method. We reframe TTA as a Gaussian probabilistic inference task by modeling class-conditional likelihoods using gradually updated class means and a shared covariance matrix. This enables closed-form, training-free inference. To correct potential likelihood bias, we introduce lightweight regularization guided by CLIP priors and a historical knowledge bank. ADAPT requires no source data, no gradient updates, and no full access to target data, supporting both online and transductive settings. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance under a wide range of distribution shifts with superior scalability and robustness.

We present a systematic analysis of estimation errors for a class of optimal transport based algorithms for filtering and data assimilation. Along the way, we extend previous error analyses of Brenier maps to the case of conditional Brenier maps that arise in the context of simulation based inference. We then apply these results in a filtering scenario to analyze the optimal transport filtering algorithm of Al-Jarrah et al. (2024, ICML). An extension of that algorithm along with numerical benchmarks on various non-Gaussian and high-dimensional examples are provided to demonstrate its effectiveness and practical potential.

Autonomous exploration in complex multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) with sparse rewards critically depends on providing agents with effective intrinsic motivation. While artificial curiosity offers a powerful self-supervised signal, it often confuses environmental stochasticity with meaningful novelty. Moreover, existing curiosity mechanisms exhibit a uniform novelty bias, treating all unexpected observations equally. However, peer behavior novelty, which encode latent task dynamics, are often overlooked, resulting in suboptimal exploration in decentralized, communication-free MARL settings. To this end, inspired by how human children adaptively calibrate their own exploratory behaviors via observing peers, we propose a novel approach to enhance multi-agent exploration. We introduce CERMIC, a principled framework that empowers agents to robustly filter noisy surprise signals and guide exploration by dynamically calibrating their intrinsic curiosity with inferred multi-agent context. Additionally, CERMIC generates theoretically-grounded intrinsic rewards, encouraging agents to explore state transitions with high information gain. We evaluate CERMIC on benchmark suites including VMAS, Meltingpot, and SMACv2. Empirical results demonstrate that exploration with CERMIC significantly outperforms SoTA algorithms in sparse-reward environments.

Vision-language models (VLMs) now rival human performance on many multimodal tasks, yet they still hallucinate objects or generate unsafe text. Current hallucination detectors, e.g., single-token linear probing (LP) and PTrue, typically analyze only the logit of the first generated token or just its highest-scoring component, overlooking richer signals embedded within earlier token distributions. We demonstrate that analyzing the complete sequence of early logits potentially provides substantially more diagnostic information. We emphasize that hallucinations may only emerge after several tokens, as subtle inconsistencies accumulate over time. By analyzing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between logits corresponding to hallucinated and non-hallucinated tokens, we underscore the importance of incorporating later-token logits to more accurately capture the reliability dynamics of VLMs. In response, we introduce Multi-Token Reliability Estimation (MTRE), a lightweight, white-box method that aggregates logits from the first ten tokens using multi-token log-likelihood ratios and self-attention. Despite the challenges posed by large vocabulary sizes and long logit sequences, MTRE remains efficient and tractable. Across MAD-Bench, MM-SafetyBench, MathVista, and four compositional-geometry benchmarks, MTRE achieves a 9.4% gain in accuracy and a 14.8% gain in AUROC over standard detection methods, establishing a new state of the art in hallucination detection for open-source VLMs.

Modeling hierarchical latent dynamics behind time series data is critical for capturing temporal dependencies across multiple levels of abstraction in real-world tasks. However, existing temporal causal representation learning methods fail to capture such dynamics, as they fail to recover the joint distribution of hierarchical latent variables from \textit{single-timestep observed variables}. Interestingly, we find that the joint distribution of hierarchical latent variables can be uniquely determined using three conditionally independent observations. Building on this insight, we propose a Causally Hierarchical Latent Dynamic (CHiLD) identification framework. Our approach first employs temporal contextual observed variables to identify the joint distribution of multi-layer latent variables. Sequentially, we exploit the natural sparsity of the hierarchical structure among latent variables to identify latent variables within each layer. Guided by the theoretical results, we develop a time series generative model grounded in variational inference. This model incorporates a contextual encoder to reconstruct multi-layer latent variables and normalize flow-based hierarchical prior networks to impose the independent noise condition of hierarchical latent dynamics. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical claims and demonstrate the effectiveness of CHiLD in modeling hierarchical latent dynamics.

In this paper, we investigate the utility of datasets and whether more data or the 'right' data is advantageous for robot learning. In particular, we are interested on quantifying the utility of contact-based data as contact holds significant information for robot learning. Our approach derives a contact-aware objective function for learning object dynamics and shape from pose and contact data. We show that the contact-aware Fisher-information metric can be used to rank and curate contact-data based on how informative data is for learning. In addition, we find that selecting a reduced dataset based on this ranking improves the learning task while also making learning a deterministic process. Interestingly, our results show that more data is not necessarily advantageous, and rather, less but informative data can accelerate learning, especially depending on the contact interactions. Last, we show how our metric can be used to provide initial guidance on data curation for contact-based robot learning.

In this paper, we generalize Pearl's do-calculus to an Intuitionistic setting called $j$-stable causal inference inside a topos of sheaves. Our framework is an elaboration of the recently proposed framework of Topos Causal Models (TCMs), where causal interventions are defined as subobjects. We generalize the original setting of TCM using the Lawvere-Tierney topology on a topos, defined by a modal operator $j$ on the subobject classifier $Ω$. We introduce $j$-do-calculus, where we replace global truth with local truth defined by Kripke-Joyal semantics, and formalize causal reasoning as structure-preserving morphisms that are stable along $j$-covers. $j$-do-calculus is a sound rule system whose premises and conclusions are formulas of the internal Intuitionistic logic of the causal topos. We define $j$-stability for conditional independences and interventional claims as local truth in the internal logic of the causal topos. We give three inference rules that mirror Pearl's insertion/deletion and action/observation exchange, and we prove soundness in the Kripke-Joyal semantics. A companion paper in preparation will describe how to estimate the required entities from data and instantiate $j$-do with standard discovery procedures (e.g., score-based and constraint-based methods), and will include experimental results on how to (i) form data-driven $j$-covers (via regime/section constructions), (ii) compute chartwise conditional independences after graph surgeries, and (iii) glue them to certify the premises of the $j$-do rules in practice