We introduce a novel framework for simultaneous structure and parameter learning in hidden-variable conditional probability models, based on an en tropic prior and a solution for its maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator. The MAP estimate minimizes uncertainty in all respects: cross-entropy between model and data; entropy of the model; entropy of the data's descriptive statistics. Iterative estimation extinguishes weakly supported parameters, compressing and sparsifying the model. Trimming operators accelerate this process by removing excess parameters and, unlike most pruning schemes, guarantee an increase in posterior probability. Entropic estimation takes a overcomplete random model and simplifies it, inducing the structure of relations between hidden and observed variables. Applied to hidden Markov models (HMMs), it finds a concise finite-state machine representing the hidden structure of a signal. We entropically model music, handwriting, and video time-series, and show that the resulting models are highly concise, structured, predictive, and interpretable: Surviving states tend to be highly correlated with meaningful partitions of the data, while surviving transitions provide a low-perplexity model of the signal dynamics.

This paper formulates the problem of visual search as Bayesian inference and defines a Bayesian ensemble of problem instances. In particular, we address the problem of the detection of visual contours in noise/clutter by optimizing a global criterion which combines local intensity and geometry information.

W is often taken to be diagonal, but if we allow W to be a general positive definite matrix which can be tuned on the basis of training data, then an eigen-analysis of W shows that we are effectively creating hidden features, where the dimensionality of the hidden-feature space is determined by the data. We demonstrate the superiority of predictions using the general matrix over those based on a diagonal matrix on two test problems.

We present a probabilistic latent-variable framework for data visualisation, a key feature of which is its applicability to binary and categorical data types for which few established methods exist. A variational approximation to the likelihood is exploited to derive a fast algorithm for determining the model parameters. Illustrations of application to real and synthetic binary data sets are given.

We present an unsupervised classification algorithm based on an ICA mixture model. The ICA mixture model assumes that the observed data can be categorized into several mutually exclusive data classes in which the components in each class are generated by a linear mixture of independent sources. The algorithm finds the independent sources, the mixing matrix for each class and also computes the class membership probability for each data point. This approach extends the Gaussian mixture model so that the classes can have non-Gaussian structure. We demonstrate that this method can learn efficient codes to represent images of natural scenes and text.

We present the CEM (Conditional Expectation Maximi::ation) algorithm as an extension of the EM (Expectation M aximi::ation) algorithm to conditional density estimation under missing data. A bounding and maximization process is given to specifically optimize conditional likelihood instead of the usual joint likelihood. We apply the method to conditioned mixture models and use bounding techniques to derive the model's update rules. Monotonic convergence, computational efficiency and regression results superior to EM are demonstrated.

One of the simplest methods is to use linear transformations of the observed data.

Dyadzc data refers to a domain with two finite sets of objects in which observations are made for dyads, i.e., pairs with one element from either set. This type of data arises naturally in many application ranging from computational linguistics and information retrieval to preference analysis and computer vision. In this paper, we present a systematic, domain-independent framework of learning from dyadic data by statistical mixture models. Our approach covers different models with fiat and hierarchical latent class structures. We propose an annealed version of the standard EM algorithm for model fitting which is empirically evaluated on a variety of data sets from different domains. 1 Introduction Over the past decade learning from data has become a highly active field of research distributed over many disciplines like pattern recognition, neural computation, statistics, machine learning, and data mining.

The difficulties lie in the Monte-Carlo E-step which consists of sampling from the posterior distribution of the hidden variables given the observations. The new idea presented in this paper is to generate samples from a Gaussian approximation to the true posterior from which it is easy to obtain independent samples. The parameters of the Gaussian approximation are either derived from the extended Kalman filter or the Fisher scoring algorithm. In case the posterior density is multimodal we propose to approximate the posterior by a sum of Gaussians (mixture of modes approach). We show that sampling from the approximate posterior densities obtained by the above algorithms leads to better models than using point estimates for the hidden states. In our experiment, the Fisher scoring algorithm obtained a better approximation of the posterior mode than the EKF. For a multimodal distribution, the mixture of modes approach gave superior results. 1 INTRODUCTION Nonlinear state space models (NSSM) are a general framework for representing nonlinear time series. In particular, any NARMAX model (nonlinear auto-regressive moving average model with external inputs) can be translated into an equivalent NSSM.

Inference is a key component in learning probabilistic models from partially observable data. When learning temporal models, each of the many inference phases requires a traversal over an entire long data sequence; furthermore, the data structures manipulated are exponentially large, making this process computationally expensive. In [2], we describe an approximate inference algorithm for monitoring stochastic processes, and prove bounds on its approximation error. In this paper, we apply this algorithm as an approximate forward propagation step in an EM algorithm for learning temporal Bayesian networks. We provide a related approximation for the backward step, and prove error bounds for the combined algorithm.