Fisher Scoring and a Mixture of Modes Approach for Approximate Inference and Learning in Nonlinear State Space Models

The difficulties lie in the Monte-Carlo E-step which consists of sampling from the posterior distribution of the hidden variables given the observations. The new idea presented in this paper is to generate samples from a Gaussian approximation to the true posterior from which it is easy to obtain independent samples. The parameters of the Gaussian approximation are either derived from the extended Kalman filter or the Fisher scoring algorithm. In case the posterior density is multimodal we propose to approximate the posterior by a sum of Gaussians (mixture of modes approach). We show that sampling from the approximate posterior densities obtained by the above algorithms leads to better models than using point estimates for the hidden states. In our experiment, the Fisher scoring algorithm obtained a better approximation of the posterior mode than the EKF. For a multimodal distribution, the mixture of modes approach gave superior results. 1 INTRODUCTION Nonlinear state space models (NSSM) are a general framework for representing nonlinear time series. In particular, any NARMAX model (nonlinear auto-regressive moving average model with external inputs) can be translated into an equivalent NSSM.