Uncertainty
Simulated Human Learning in a Dynamic, Partially-Observed, Time-Series Environment
Jiang, Jeffrey, Hong, Kevin, Kuczynski, Emily, Pottie, Gregory
While intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) can use information from past students to personalize instruction, each new student is unique. Moreover, the education problem is inherently difficult because the learning process is only partially observable. We therefore develop a dynamic, time-series environment to simulate a classroom setting, with student-teacher interventions - including tutoring sessions, lectures, and exams. In particular, we design the simulated environment to allow for varying levels of probing interventions that can gather more information. Then, we develop reinforcement learning ITSs that combine learning the individual state of students while pulling from population information through the use of probing interventions. These interventions can reduce the difficulty of student estimation, but also introduce a cost-benefit decision to find a balance between probing enough to get accurate estimates and probing so often that it becomes disruptive to the student. We compare the efficacy of standard RL algorithms with several greedy rules-based heuristic approaches to find that they provide different solutions, but with similar results. We also highlight the difficulty of the problem with increasing levels of hidden information, and the boost that we get if we allow for probing interventions. We show the flexibility of both heuristic and RL policies with regards to changing student population distributions, finding that both are flexible, but RL policies struggle to help harder classes. Finally, we test different course structures with non-probing policies and we find that our policies are able to boost the performance of quiz and midterm structures more than we can in a finals-only structure, highlighting the benefit of having additional information.
Resource-Based Time and Cost Prediction in Project Networks: From Statistical Modeling to Graph Neural Networks
Mirjalili, Reza, Braghi, Behrad, Sikari, Shahram Shadrokh
Accurate prediction of project duration and cost remains one of the most challenging aspects of project management, particularly in resource-constrained and interdependent task networks. Traditional analytical techniques such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) rely on simplified and often static assumptions regarding task interdependencies and resource performance. This study proposes a novel resource-based predictive framework that integrates network representations of project activities with graph neural networks (GNNs) to capture structural and contextual relationships among tasks, resources, and time-cost dynamics. The model represents the project as a heterogeneous activity-resource graph in which nodes denote activities and resources, and edges encode temporal and resource dependencies. We evaluate multiple learning paradigms, including GraphSAGE and Temporal Graph Networks, on both synthetic and benchmark project datasets. Experimental results show that the proposed GNN framework achieves an average 23 to 31 percent reduction in mean absolute error compared to traditional regression and tree-based methods, while improving the coefficient of determination R2 from approximately 0.78 to 0.91 for large and complex project networks. Furthermore, the learned embeddings provide interpretable insights into resource bottlenecks and critical dependencies, enabling more explainable and adaptive scheduling decisions.
Uncertainty-Aware Measurement of Scenario Suite Representativeness for Autonomous Systems
Chakherlou, Robab Aghazadeh, Khastgir, Siddartha, Zhao, Xingyu, Jeyachandran, Jerein, Chen, Shufeng
Assuring the trustworthiness and safety of AI systems, e.g., autonomous vehicles (AV), depends critically on the data-related safety properties, e.g., representativeness, completeness, etc., of the datasets used for their training and testing. Among these properties, this paper focuses on representativeness-the extent to which the scenario-based data used for training and testing, reflect the operational conditions that the system is designed to operate safely in, i.e., Operational Design Domain (ODD) or expected to encounter, i.e., Target Operational Domain (TOD). We propose a probabilistic method that quantifies representativeness by comparing the statistical distribution of features encoded by the scenario suites with the corresponding distribution of features representing the TOD, acknowledging that the true TOD distribution is unknown, as it can only be inferred from limited data. We apply an imprecise Bayesian method to handle limited data and uncertain priors. The imprecise Bayesian formulation produces interval-valued, uncertainty-aware estimates of representativeness, rather than a single value. We present a numerical example comparing the distributions of the scenario suite and the inferred TOD across operational categories-weather, road type, time of day, etc., under dependencies and prior uncertainty. We estimate representativeness locally (between categories) and globally as an interval.
Towards Continuous Assurance with Formal Verification and Assurance Cases
Abeywickrama, Dhaminda B., Fisher, Michael, Wheeler, Frederic, Dennis, Louise
Autonomous systems must sustain justified confidence in their correctness and safety across their operational lifecycle-from design and deployment through post-deployment evolution. Traditional assurance methods often separate development-time assurance from runtime assurance, yielding fragmented arguments that cannot adapt to runtime changes or system updates - a significant challenge for assured autonomy. Towards addressing this, we propose a unified Continuous Assurance Framework that integrates design-time, runtime, and evolution-time assurance within a traceable, model-driven workflow as a step towards assured autonomy. In this paper, we specifically instantiate the design-time phase of the framework using two formal verification methods: RoboChart for functional correctness and PRISM for probabilistic risk analysis. We also propose a model-driven transformation pipeline, implemented as an Eclipse plugin, that automatically regenerates structured assurance arguments whenever formal specifications or their verification results change, thereby ensuring traceability. We demonstrate our approach on a nuclear inspection robot scenario, and discuss its alignment with the Trilateral AI Principles, reflecting regulator-endorsed best practices.
Full-Atom Peptide Design via Riemannian-Euclidean Bayesian Flow Networks
Qian, Hao, Tu, Shikui, Xu, Lei
Diffusion and flow matching models have recently emerged as promising approaches for peptide binder design. Despite their progress, these models still face two major challenges. First, categorical sampling of discrete residue types collapses their continuous parameters into onehot assignments, while continuous variables (e.g., atom positions) evolve smoothly throughout the generation process. This mismatch disrupts the update dynamics and results in suboptimal performance. Second, current models assume unimodal distributions for side-chain torsion angles, which conflicts with the inherently multimodal nature of side chain rotameric states and limits prediction accuracy. To address these limitations, we introduce PepBFN, the first Bayesian flow network for full atom peptide design that directly models parameter distributions in fully continuous space. Specifically, PepBFN models discrete residue types by learning their continuous parameter distributions, enabling joint and smooth Bayesian updates with other continuous structural parameters. It further employs a novel Gaussian mixture based Bayesian flow to capture the multimodal side chain rotameric states and a Matrix Fisher based Riemannian flow to directly model residue orientations on the $\mathrm{SO}(3)$ manifold. Together, these parameter distributions are progressively refined via Bayesian updates, yielding smooth and coherent peptide generation. Experiments on side chain packing, reverse folding, and binder design tasks demonstrate the strong potential of PepBFN in computational peptide design.
Solving Imaging Inverse Problems Using Plug-and-Play Denoisers: Regularization and Optimization Perspectives
Tan, Hong Ye, Mukherjee, Subhadip, Tang, Junqi
Inverse problems lie at the heart of modern imaging science, with broad applications in areas such as medical imaging, remote sensing, and microscopy. Recent years have witnessed a paradigm shift in solving imaging inverse problems, where data-driven regularizers are used increasingly, leading to remarkably high-fidelity reconstruction. A particularly notable approach for data-driven regularization is to use learned image denoisers as implicit priors in iterative image reconstruction algorithms. This chapter presents a comprehensive overview of this powerful and emerging class of algorithms, commonly referred to as plug-and-play (PnP) methods. We begin by providing a brief background on image denoising and inverse problems, followed by a short review of traditional regularization strategies. We then explore how proximal splitting algorithms, such as the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) and proximal gradient descent (PGD), can naturally accommodate learned denoisers in place of proximal operators, and under what conditions such replacements preserve convergence. The role of Tweedie's formula in connecting optimal Gaussian denoisers and score estimation is discussed, which lays the foundation for regularization-by-denoising (RED) and more recent diffusion-based posterior sampling methods. We discuss theoretical advances regarding the convergence of PnP algorithms, both within the RED and proximal settings, emphasizing the structural assumptions that the denoiser must satisfy for convergence, such as non-expansiveness, Lipschitz continuity, and local homogeneity. We also address practical considerations in algorithm design, including choices of denoiser architecture and acceleration strategies.
Optimizing In-Context Learning for Efficient Full Conformal Prediction
Deng, Weicao, Park, Sangwoo, Li, Min, Simeone, Osvaldo
Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical for trustworthy AI. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees, but its two main variants face complementary limitations. Split CP (SCP) suffers from data inefficiency due to dataset partitioning, while full CP (FCP) improves data efficiency at the cost of prohibitive retraining complexity. Recent approaches based on meta-learning or in-context learning (ICL) partially mitigate these drawbacks. However, they rely on training procedures not specifically tailored to CP, which may yield large prediction sets. We introduce an efficient FCP framework, termed enhanced ICL-based FCP (E-ICL+FCP), which employs a permutation-invariant Transformer-based ICL model trained with a CP-aware loss. By simulating the multiple retrained models required by FCP without actual retraining, E-ICL+FCP preserves coverage while markedly reducing both inefficiency and computational overhead. Experiments on synthetic and real tasks demonstrate that E-ICL+FCP attains superior efficiency-coverage trade-offs compared to existing SCP and FCP baselines.
Energy-based generator matching: A neural sampler for general state space
Woo, Dongyeop, Kim, Minsu, Kim, Minkyu, Seong, Kiyoung, Ahn, Sungsoo
We propose Energy-based generator matching (EGM), a modality-agnostic approach to train generative models from energy functions in the absence of data. Extending the recently proposed generator matching, EGM enables training of arbitrary continuous-time Markov processes, e.g., diffusion, flow, and jump, and can generate data from continuous, discrete, and a mixture of two modalities. To this end, we propose estimating the generator matching loss using self-normalized importance sampling with an additional bootstrapping trick to reduce variance in the importance weight. We validate EGM on both discrete and multimodal tasks up to 100 and 20 dimensions, respectively.
Robust Bayesian Optimisation with Unbounded Corruptions
Ezzerg, Abdelhamid, Bogunovic, Ilija, Knoblauch, Jeremias
Bayesian Optimization is critically vulnerable to extreme outliers. Existing provably robust methods typically assume a bounded cumulative corruption budget, which makes them defenseless against even a single corruption of sufficient magnitude. To address this, we introduce a new adversary whose budget is only bounded in the frequency of corruptions, not in their magnitude. We then derive RCGP-UCB, an algorithm coupling the famous upper confidence bound (UCB) approach with a Robust Conjugate Gaussian Process (RCGP). We present stable and adaptive versions of RCGP-UCB, and prove that they achieve sublinear regret in the presence of up to $O(T^{1/2})$ and $O(T^{1/3})$ corruptions with possibly infinite magnitude. This robustness comes at near zero cost: without outliers, RCGP-UCB's regret bounds match those of the standard GP-UCB algorithm.
From Global to Local Correlation: Geometric Decomposition of Statistical Inference
Understanding feature-outcome associations in high-dimensional data remains challenging when relationships vary across subpopulations, yet standard methods assuming global associations miss context-dependent patterns, reducing statistical power and interpretability. We develop a geometric decomposition framework offering two strategies for partitioning inference problems into regional analyses on data-derived Riemannian graphs. Gradient flow decomposition uses path-monotonicity-validated discrete Morse theory to partition samples into gradient flow cells where outcomes exhibit monotonic behavior. Co-monotonicity decomposition utilizes vertex-level coefficients that provide context-dependent versions of the classical Pearson correlation: these coefficients measure edge-based directional concordance between outcome and features, or between feature pairs, defining embeddings of samples into association space. These embeddings induce Riemannian k-NN graphs on which biclustering identifies co-monotonicity cells (coherent regions) and feature modules. This extends naturally to multi-modal integration across multiple feature sets. Both strategies apply independently or jointly, with Bayesian posterior sampling providing credible intervals.