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 Uncertainty


Pictorial Structures for Molecular Modeling: Interpreting Density Maps

Neural Information Processing Systems

X-ray crystallography is currently the most common way protein structures are elucidated. One of the most time-consuming steps in the crystallographic process is interpretation of the electron density map, a task that involves finding patterns in a three-dimensional picture of a protein. This paper describes DEFT (DEFormable Template), an algorithm using pictorial structures to build a flexible protein model from the protein's amino-acid sequence. Matching this pictorial structure into the density map is a way of automating density-map interpretation. Also described are several extensions to the pictorial structure matching algorithm necessary for this automated interpretation. DEFT is tested on a set of density maps ranging from 2 to 4ร… resolution, producing rootmean-squared errorsranging from 1.38 to 1.84ร….


Bayesian inference in spiking neurons

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a new interpretation of spiking neurons as Bayesian integrators accumulatingevidence over time about events in the external world or the body, and communicating to other neurons their certainties about these events. In this model, spikes signal the occurrence of new information, i.e.what cannot be predicted from the past activity. As a result, firing statistics are close to Poisson, albeit providing a deterministic representation ofprobabilities. We proceed to develop a theory of Bayesian inference in spiking neural networks, recurrent interactions implementing avariant of belief propagation. Many perceptual and motor tasks performed by the central nervous system are probabilistic, andcan be described in a Bayesian framework [4, 3].


Similarity and Discrimination in Classical Conditioning: A Latent Variable Account

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a probabilistic, generative account of configural learning phenomena in classical conditioning. Configural learning experiments probe how animals discriminate and generalize between patterns of simultaneously presentedstimuli (such as tones and lights) that are differentially predictive of reinforcement. Previous models of these issues have been successful more on a phenomenological than an explanatory level: they reproduce experimental findings but, lacking formal foundations, providescant basis for understanding why animals behave as they do. We present a theory that clarifies seemingly arbitrary aspects of previous modelswhile also capturing a broader set of data.


A Machine Learning Approach to Conjoint Analysis

Neural Information Processing Systems

Choice-based conjoint analysis builds models of consumer preferences over products with answers gathered in questionnaires. Our main goal is to bring tools from the machine learning community to solve this problem moreefficiently. Thus, we propose two algorithms to quickly and accurately estimate consumer preferences.


The Correlated Correspondence Algorithm for Unsupervised Registration of Nonrigid Surfaces

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present an unsupervised algorithm for registering 3D surface scans of an object undergoing significant deformations. Our algorithm does not need markers, nor does it assume prior knowledge about object shape, the dynamics of its deformation, or scan alignment.


Ignorability in Statistical and Probabilistic Inference

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

When dealing with incomplete data in statistical learning, or incomplete observations in probabilistic inference, one needs to distinguish the fact that a certain event is observed from the fact that the observed event has happened. Since the modeling and computational complexities entailed by maintaining this proper distinction are often prohibitive, one asks for conditions under which it can be safely ignored. Such conditions are given by the missing at random (mar) and coarsened at random (car) assumptions. In this paper we provide an in-depth analysis of several questions relating to mar/car assumptions. Main purpose of our study is to provide criteria by which one may evaluate whether a car assumption is reasonable for a particular data collecting or observational process. This question is complicated by the fact that several distinct versions of mar/car assumptions exist. We therefore first provide an overview over these different versions, in which we highlight the distinction between distributional and coarsening variable induced versions. We show that distributional versions are less restrictive and sufficient for most applications. We then address from two different perspectives the question of when the mar/car assumption is warranted. First we provide a ''static'' analysis that characterizes the admissibility of the car assumption in terms of the support structure of the joint probability distribution of complete data and incomplete observations. Here we obtain an equivalence characterization that improves and extends a recent result by Grunwald and Halpern. We then turn to a ''procedural'' analysis that characterizes the admissibility of the car assumption in terms of procedural models for the actual data (or observation) generating process. The main result of this analysis is that the stronger coarsened completely at random (ccar) condition is arguably the most reasonable assumption, as it alone corresponds to data coarsening procedures that satisfy a natural robustness property.



Probabilistic Hybrid Action Models for Predicting Concurrent Percept-driven Robot Behavior

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Most autonomous robots are equipped with restricted, unreliable, and inaccurate sensors and effectors and operate in complex and dynamic environments. A successful approach to deal with the resulting uncertainty is the use of controllers that prescribe the robots' behavior in terms of concurrent reactive plans (CRPs) -- plans that specify how the robots are to react to sensory input in order to accomplish their jobs reliably (e.g., McDermott, 1992a; Beetz, 1999). Reactive plans are successfully used to produce situation specific behavior, to detect problems and recover from them automatically, and to recognize and exploit opportunities (Beetz et al., 2001). These kinds of behaviors are particularly important for autonomous robots that have only uncertain information about the world, act in dynamically changing environments, and are to accomplish complex tasks efficiently. Besides reliability and flexibility, foresight is another important capability of competent autonomous robots (McDermott, 1992a).


Reflections on the First AAAI Conference

AI Magazine

What Do We Know about Knowledge? In this article, I will examine the first of these questions. AI has been slow to embrace this principle. Programs demonstrating research ideas in AI are often too large and not well enough documented to allow replication or sharing. What I would like to in diverse conditions. I wish to clarify the knowledge example, it was pretty clearly articulated in Biblical principle and try to increase our understanding times: "A man of knowledge increaseth of what programmers and program strength" (Proverbs 24: 5). Greek philosophers based their lives on acquiring The "knowledge is power" principle is most and transferring knowledge. In the course closely associated with Francis Bacon, from his of teaching, they sought to understand the 1597 tract on heresies: "Nam et ipsa scientia nature of knowledge and how we can establish potestas est." ("In and of itself, knowledge is knowledge of the natural world. B," along with quantification, "All A's are B's," Euclid's geometry firmly established the concept In the intervening several centuries before Plato, Socrates's pupil and Aristotle's mentor, was the first to pose the question in writing of the Middle Ages and the rise of modern science what we mean when we say that a person in the West, He was distinguishing empirical knowledge, church to make new knowledge fit with established lacking complete certainty, from the certain dogma.


A Suffix Tree Approach to Email Filtering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Just as email traffic has increased over the years since its in ception, so has the proportion that is unsolicited; some estimations have plac ed the proportion as high as 60%, and the average cost of this to business at arou nd $2000 per year, per employee (see [29] for a range of numbers and statis tics on spam). Unsolicited emails - commonly know as spam - have thereby become a daily feature of every email user's inbox; and regardless of advan ces in email filtering, spam continues to be a problem in a similar way to comp uter viruses which constantly reemerge in new guises. This leaves the res earch community with the task of continually investigating new approac hes to sorting the welcome emails (known as ham) from the unwelcome spam. W e present just such an approach to email classification and fi ltering based on a well studied data structure, the suffix tree (see [1 6] for a brief introduction). The approach is similar to many existing one s, in that it uses training examples to construct a model or profile of the class and its features, then uses this to make decisions as to the class of new example s; but it differs in the depth and extent of the anaysis. For a good overview of a number of text classification methods, see [26, 1, 31]. Using a suffix tree, we are able to compare not only single word s, as in most current approaches, but substrings of an arbitrary len gth.