The relationship between Popper spaces (conditional probability spaces that satisfy some regularity conditions), lexicographic probability systems (LPS's), and nonstandard probability spaces (NPS's) is considered. If countable additivity is assumed, Popper spaces and a subclass of LPS's are equivalent; without the assumption of countable additivity, the equivalence no longer holds. If the state space is finite, LPS's are equivalent to NPS's. However, if the state space is infinite, NPS's are shown to be more general than LPS's.

We study the distributions of the LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding estimators, in finite samples and in the large-sample limit. The asymptotic distributions are derived for both the case where the estimators are tuned to perform consistent model selection and for the case where the estimators are tuned to perform conservative model selection. Our findings complement those of Knight and Fu (2000) and Fan and Li (2001). We show that the distributions are typically highly nonnormal regardless of how the estimator is tuned, and that this property persists in large samples. The uniform convergence rate of these estimators is also obtained, and is shown to be slower than 1/root(n) in case the estimator is tuned to perform consistent model selection. An impossibility result regarding estimation of the estimators' distribution function is also provided.

We introduce new definitions of universal and superuniversal computable codes, which are based on a code's ability to approximate Kolmogorov complexity within the prescribed margin for all individual sequences from a given set. Such sets of sequences may be singled out almost surely with respect to certain probability measures. Consider a measure parameterized with a real parameter and put an arbitrary prior on the parameter. The Bayesian measure is the expectation of the parameterized measure with respect to the prior. It appears that a modified Shannon-Fano code for any computable Bayesian measure, which we call the Bayesian code, is superuniversal on a set of parameterized measure-almost all sequences for prior-almost every parameter. According to this result, in the typical setting of mathematical statistics no computable code enjoys redundancy which is ultimately much less than that of the Bayesian code. Thus we introduce another characteristic of computable codes: The catch-up time is the length of data for which the code length drops below the Kolmogorov complexity plus the prescribed margin. Some codes may have smaller catch-up times than Bayesian codes.

Household robots need to communicate with human beings in a friendly fashion. To achieve better understanding of displayed information, an importance and a certainty of the information should be communicated together with the main information. The proposed intent expression system aims to convey this additional information using an eye robot. The eye motions are represented as states in a pleasure-arousal space model. Change of the model state is calculated by fuzzy inference according to the importance and certainty of the displayed information. This change influences the arousal-sleep coordinate in the space which corresponds to activeness in communication. The eye robot provides a basic interface for the mascot robot system which is an easy to understand information terminal for home environments in a humatronics society.

An intent expression system using eye robots is proposed for a mascot robot system from a viewpoint of humatronics. The eye robot aims at providing a basic interface method for an information terminal robot system. To achieve better understanding of the displayed information, the importance and the degree of certainty of the information should be communicated along with the main content. The proposed intent expression system aims at conveying this additional information using the eye robot system. Eye motions are represented as the states in a pleasure-arousal space model. Changes in the model state are calculated by fuzzy inference according to the importance and degree of certainty of the displayed information. These changes influence the arousal-sleep coordinates in the space that corresponds to levels of liveliness during communication. The eye robot provides a basic interface for the mascot robot system that is easy to be understood as an information terminal for home environments in a humatronics society.

The class of chain event graph models is a generalisation of the class of discrete Bayesian networks, retaining most of the structural advantages of the Bayesian network for model interrogation, propagation and learning, while more naturally encoding asymmetric state spaces and the order in which events happen. In this paper we demonstrate how with complete sampling, conjugate closed form model selection based on product Dirichlet priors is possible, and prove that suitable homogeneity assumptions characterise the product Dirichlet prior on this class of models. We demonstrate our techniques using two educational examples.

This chapter defines a new concept and framework for constructing fusion rules for evidences. This framework is based on a referee function, which does a decisional arbitrament conditionally to basic decisions provided by the several sources of information. A simple sampling method is derived from this framework. The purpose of this sampling approach is to avoid the combinatorics which are inherent to the definition of fusion rules of evidences. This definition of the fusion rule by the means of a sampling process makes possible the construction of several rules on the basis of an algorithmic implementation of the referee function, instead of a mathematical formulation. Incidentally, it is a versatile and intuitive way for defining rules. The framework is implemented for various well known evidence rules. On the basis of this framework, new rules for combining evidences are proposed, which takes into account a consensual evaluation of the sources of information.

Inference in Bayes Nets (BAYES) is an important problem with numerous applications in probabilistic reasoning. Counting the number of satisfying assignments of a propositional formula (#SAT) is a closely related problem of fundamental theoretical importance. Both these problems, and others, are members of the class of sum-of-products (SUMPROD) problems. In this paper we show that standard backtracking search when augmented with a simple memoization scheme (caching) can solve any sum-of-products problem with time complexity that is at least as good any other state-of-the-art exact algorithm, and that it can also achieve the best known time-space tradeoff. Furthermore, backtrackings ability to utilize more flexible variable orderings allows us to prove that it can achieve an exponential speedup over other standard algorithms for SUMPROD on some instances. The ideas presented here have been utilized in a number of solvers that have been applied to various types of sum-of-product problems. These systems have exploited the fact that backtracking can naturally exploit more of the problems structure to achieve improved performance on a range of probleminstances. Empirical evidence of this performance gain has appeared in published works describing these solvers, and we provide references to these works.

The task of identifying synonymous relations and objects, or synonym resolution, is critical for high-quality information extraction. This paper investigates synonym resolution in the context of unsupervised information extraction, where neither hand-tagged training examples nor domain knowledge is available. The paper presents a scalable, fully-implemented system that runs in O(KN log N) time in the number of extractions, N, and the maximum number of synonyms per word, K. The system, called Resolver , introduces a probabilistic relational model for predicting whether two strings are co-referential based on the similarity of the assertions containing them. On a set of two million assertions extracted from the Web, Resolver resolves objects with 78% precision and 68% recall, and resolves relations with 90% precision and 35% recall. Several variations of resolver's probabilistic model are explored, and experiments demonstrate that under appropriate conditions these variations can improve F1 by 5%. An extension to the basic Resolver system allows it to handle polysemous names with 97% precision and 95% recall on a data set from the TREC corpus.

Early work in AI focused on the notion of a goal--an explicit target that must be achieved--and this paradigm is still dominant in AI problem solving. But as application domains become more complex and realistic, it is apparent that the dichotomic notion of a goal, while adequate for certain puzzles, is too crude in general. The problem is that in many contemporary application domains, for example, information retrieval from large databases or the web, or planning in complex domains, the user has little knowledge about the set of possible solutions or feasible items, and what she or he typically seeks is the best that's out there. But since the user does not know what is the best achievable plan or the best available document or product, he or she typically cannot characterize it or its properties specifically. As a result, the user will end up either asking for an unachievable goal, getting no solution in response, or asking for too little, obtaining a solution that can be substantially improved. Of course, the user can gradually adjust the stated goals. This, however, is not a very appealing mode of interaction because the space of alternative solutions in such applications can be combinatorially huge, or even infinite. Moreover, such incremental goal refinement is simply infeasible when the goal must be supplied offline, as in the case of autonomous agents (whether on the web or on Mars).