Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the availability of large-scale data from social networks and sensor networks offers an unprecedented opportunity to predict state-changing events at the individual level. Examples of such events include disease transmission, opinion transition in elections, and rumor propagation. Unlike previous research focusing on the collective effects of social systems, this study makes efficient inferences at the individual level. In order to cope with dynamic interactions among a large number of individuals, we introduce the stochastic kinetic model to capture adaptive transition probabilities and propose an efficient variational inference algorithm the complexity of which grows linearly — rather than exponentially— with the number of individuals. To validate this method, we have performed epidemic-dynamics experiments on wireless sensor network data collected from more than ten thousand people over three years. The proposed algorithm was used to track disease transmission and predict the probability of infection for each individual. Our results demonstrate that this method is more efficient than sampling while nonetheless achieving high accuracy.

Random projections constitute a simple, yet effective technique for dimensionality reduction with applications in learning and search problems. In the present paper, we consider the problem of estimating cosine similarities when the projected data undergo scalar quantization to $b$ bits. We here argue that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a principled approach to deal with the non-linearity resulting from quantization, and subsequently study its computational and statistical properties. A specific focus is on the on the trade-off between bit depth and the number of projections given a fixed budget of bits for storage or transmission. Along the way, we also touch upon the existence of a qualitative counterpart to the Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma in the presence of quantization.

Accurately differentiating between what are truly unpredictably random and systematic changes that occur at random can have profound effect on affect and cognition. To examine the underlying computational principles that guide different learning behavior in an uncertain environment, we compared an R-W model and a Bayesian approach in a visual search task with different volatility levels. Both R-W model and the Bayesian approach reflected an individual's estimation of the environmental volatility, and there is a strong correlation between the learning rate in R-W model and the belief of stationarity in the Bayesian approach in different volatility conditions. In a low volatility condition, R-W model indicates that learning rate positively correlates with lose-shift rate, but not choice optimality (inverted U shape). The Bayesian approach indicates that the belief of environmental stationarity positively correlates with choice optimality, but not lose-shift rate (inverted U shape). In addition, we showed that comparing to Expert learners, individuals with high lose-shift rate (sub-optimal learners) had significantly higher learning rate estimated from R-W model and lower belief of stationarity from the Bayesian model.

Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for estimating parameters of statistical models. However, EM, which is an iterative algorithm based on the maximum likelihood principle, is generally only guaranteed to find stationary points of the likelihood objective, and these points may be far from any maximizer. This article addresses this disconnect between the statistical principles behind EM and its algorithmic properties. Specifically, it provides a global analysis of EM for specific models in which the observations comprise an i.i.d. sample from a mixture of two Gaussians. This is achieved by (i) studying the sequence of parameters from idealized execution of EM in the infinite sample limit, and fully characterizing the limit points of the sequence in terms of the initial parameters; and then (ii) based on this convergence analysis, establishing statistical consistency (or lack thereof) for the actual sequence of parameters produced by EM.

Graphical models with latent count variables arise in a number of fields. Standard exact inference techniques such as variable elimination and belief propagation do not apply to these models because the latent variables have countably infinite support. As a result, approximations such as truncation or MCMC are employed. We present the first exact inference algorithms for a class of models with latent count variables by developing a novel representation of countably infinite factors as probability generating functions, and then performing variable elimination with generating functions. Our approach is exact, runs in pseudo-polynomial time, and is much faster than existing approximate techniques. It leads to better parameter estimates for problems in population ecology by avoiding error introduced by approximate likelihood computations.

We propose a geometric algorithm for topic learning and inference that is built on the convex geometry of topics arising from the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model and its nonparametric extensions. To this end we study the optimization of a geometric loss function, which is a surrogate to the LDA's likelihood. Our method involves a fast optimization based weighted clustering procedure augmented with geometric corrections, which overcomes the computational and statistical inefficiencies encountered by other techniques based on Gibbs sampling and variational inference, while achieving the accuracy comparable to that of a Gibbs sampler. The topic estimates produced by our method are shown to be statistically consistent under some conditions. The algorithm is evaluated with extensive experiments on simulated and real data.

Models for collecting and aggregating categorical data on crowdsourcing platforms typically fall into two broad categories: those assuming agents honest and consistent but with heterogeneous error rates, and those assuming agents strategic and seek to maximize their expected reward. The former often leads to tractable aggregation of elicited data, while the latter usually focuses on optimal elicitation and does not consider aggregation. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian model, wherein agents have differing quality of information, but also respond to incentives. Our model generalizes both categories and enables the joint exploration of optimal elicitation and aggregation. This model enables our exploration, both analytically and experimentally, of optimal aggregation of categorical data and optimal multiple-choice interface design.

We propose a general purpose variational inference algorithm that forms a natural counterpart of gradient descent for optimization. Our method iteratively transports a set of particles to match the target distribution, by applying a form of functional gradient descent that minimizes the KL divergence. Empirical studies are performed on various real world models and datasets, on which our method is competitive with existing state-of-the-art methods. The derivation of our method is based on a new theoretical result that connects the derivative of KL divergence under smooth transforms with Stein’s identity and a recently proposed kernelized Stein discrepancy, which is of independent interest.

Example-based explanations are widely used in the effort to improve the interpretability of highly complex distributions. However, prototypes alone are rarely sufficient to represent the gist of the complexity. In order for users to construct better mental models and understand complex data distributions, we also need {\em criticism} to explain what are \textit{not} captured by prototypes. Motivated by the Bayesian model criticism framework, we develop \texttt{MMD-critic} which efficiently learns prototypes and criticism, designed to aid human interpretability. A human subject pilot study shows that the \texttt{MMD-critic} selects prototypes and criticism that are useful to facilitate human understanding and reasoning. We also evaluate the prototypes selected by \texttt{MMD-critic} via a nearest prototype classifier, showing competitive performance compared to baselines.

Behavioral experiments on humans and animals suggest that the brain performs probabilistic inference to interpret its environment. Here we present a new general-purpose, biologically-plausible neural implementation of approximate inference. The neural network represents uncertainty using Probabilistic Population Codes (PPCs), which are distributed neural representations that naturally encode probability distributions, and support marginalization and evidence integration in a biologically-plausible manner. By connecting multiple PPCs together as a probabilistic graphical model, we represent multivariate probability distributions. Approximate inference in graphical models can be accomplished by message-passing algorithms that disseminate local information throughout the graph. An attractive and often accurate example of such an algorithm is Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP), which uses local marginalization and evidence integration operations to perform approximate inference efficiently even for complex models. Unfortunately, a subtle feature of LBP renders it neurally implausible. However, LBP can be elegantly reformulated as a sequence of Tree-based Reparameterizations (TRP) of the graphical model. We re-express the TRP updates as a nonlinear dynamical system with both fast and slow timescales, and show that this produces a neurally plausible solution. By combining all of these ideas, we show that a network of PPCs can represent multivariate probability distributions and implement the TRP updates to perform probabilistic inference. Simulations with Gaussian graphical models demonstrate that the neural network inference quality is comparable to the direct evaluation of LBP and robust to noise, and thus provides a promising mechanism for general probabilistic inference in the population codes of the brain.