Continuous latent time series models are prevalent in Bayesian modeling; examples include the Kalman filter, dynamic collaborative filtering, or dynamic topic models. These models often benefit from structured, non mean field variational approximations that capture correlations between time steps. Black box variational inference with reparameterization gradients (BBVI) allows us to explore a rich new class of Bayesian non-conjugate latent time series models; however, a naive application of BBVI to such structured variational models would scale quadratically in the number of time steps. We describe a BBVI algorithm analogous to the forward-backward algorithm which instead scales linearly in time. It allows us to efficiently sample from the variational distribution and estimate the gradients of the ELBO. Finally, we show results on the recently proposed dynamic word embedding model, which was trained using our method.

A causal falling rule list (CFRL) is a sequence of if-then rules that specifies heterogeneous treatment effects, where (i) the order of rules determines the treatment effect subgroup a subject belongs to, and (ii) the treatment effect decreases monotonically down the list. A given CFRL parameterizes a hierarchical bayesian regression model in which the treatment effects are incorporated as parameters, and assumed constant within model-specific subgroups. We formulate the search for the CFRL best supported by the data as a Bayesian model selection problem, where we perform a search over the space of CFRL models, and approximate the evidence for a given CFRL model using standard variational techniques. We apply CFRL to a census wage dataset to identify subgroups of differing wage inequalities between men and women.

We propose a number of new algorithms for learning deep energy models from data motivated by a recent Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) algorithm, including a Stein contrastive divergence (SteinCD) that integrates CD with SVGD based on their theoretical connections, and a SteinGAN that trains an auxiliary generator to generate the negative samples in maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We demonstrate that our SteinCD trains models with good generalization (high test likelihood), while Stein-GAN can generate realistic looking images competitive with GAN-style methods. We show that by combing SteinCD and SteinGAN, it is possible to inherent the advantage of both approaches.

Automation and computer intelligence to support complex human decisions becomes essential to manage large and distributed systems in the Cloud and IoT era. Understanding the root cause of an observed symptom in a complex system has been a major problem for decades. As industry dives into the IoT world and the amount of data generated per year grows at an amazing speed, an important question is how to find appropriate mechanisms to determine root causes that can handle huge amounts of data or may provide valuable feedback in real-time. While many survey papers aim at summarizing the landscape of techniques for modelling system behavior and infering the root cause of a problem based in the resulting models, none of those focuses on analyzing how the different techniques in the literature fit growing requirements in terms of performance and scalability. In this survey, we provide a review of root-cause analysis, focusing on these particular aspects. We also provide guidance to choose the best root-cause analysis strategy depending on the requirements of a particular system and application.

I attended the Huawei European Innovation Day recently, and was enthralled by how the new technology is giving rise to industrial revolutions. These revolutions are what will eventually unlock the development potential around the world. It is important to leverage the emerging technologies, since they are the resources which will lead us to innovation and progress. Huawei is innovative in its partnerships and collaboration to define the future, and the event was a huge success. For many people, the concept of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a thing of the future. It is the technology that has yet to be introduced.

Dirichlet processes (DP) are widely applied in Bayesian nonparametric modeling. However, in their basic form they do not directly integrate dependency information among data arising from space and time. In this paper, we propose location dependent Dirichlet processes (LDDP) which incorporate nonparametric Gaussian processes in the DP modeling framework to model such dependencies. We develop the LDDP in the context of mixture modeling, and develop a mean field variational inference algorithm for this mixture model. The effectiveness of the proposed modeling framework is shown on an image segmentation task.

We present WatsonPaths, a novel system that can answer scenario-based questions. These include medical questions that present a patient summary and ask for the most likely diagnosis or most appropriate treatment. WatsonPaths builds on the IBM Watson question answering system. WatsonPaths breaks down the input scenario into individual pieces of information, asks relevant subquestions of Watson to conclude new information, and represents these results in a graphical model. Probabilistic inference is performed over the graph to conclude the answer. On a set of medical test preparation questions, WatsonPaths shows a significant improvement in accuracy over multiple baselines.

I attended the Huawei European Innovation Day recently, and was enthralled by how the new technology is giving rise to industrial revolutions. These revolutions are what will eventually unlock the development potential around the world. It is important to leverage the emerging technologies, since they are the resources which will lead us to innovation and progress. Huawei is innovative in its partnerships and collaboration to define the future, and the event was a huge success. For many people, the concept of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a thing of the future. It is the technology that has yet to be introduced.

Implicit schemes are popular methods for the integration of time dependent PDEs such as hyperbolic and parabolic PDEs. However the necessity to solve corresponding linear systems at each time step constitutes a complexity bottleneck in their application to PDEs with rough coefficients. We present a generalization of gamblets introduced in \cite{OwhadiMultigrid:2015} enabling the resolution of these implicit systems in near-linear complexity and provide rigorous a-priori error bounds on the resulting numerical approximations of hyperbolic and parabolic PDEs. These generalized gamblets induce a multiresolution decomposition of the solution space that is adapted to both the underlying (hyperbolic and parabolic) PDE (and the system of ODEs resulting from space discretization) and to the time-steps of the numerical scheme.

We consider the problem of learning the functions computing children from parents in a Structural Causal Model once the underlying causal graph has been identified. This is in some sense the second step after causal discovery. Taking a probabilistic approach to estimating these functions, we derive a natural myopic active learning scheme that identifies the intervention which is optimally informative about all of the unknown functions jointly, given previously observed data. We test the derived algorithms on simple examples, to demonstrate that they produce a structured exploration policy that significantly improves on unstructured base-lines.