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 Uncertainty


A Planner for Both Satisfaction and Optimization Problems

AI Magazine

The way work load is shared between these stages depends on the particular approach in use. The reader unfamiliar with Petri nets needs only know the following: They are made of places, transitions, and tokens. A place can be seen as a token holder. When it contains one or more tokens, it is said to be marked. Transitions allow tokens to circulate from place to place.


Representativeness and Uncertainty in Classif icationsystems

AI Magazine

The choice of implication as a representation for empirical associations and for deduction as a mode of inference requires a mechanism extraneous to deduction to manage uncertainty associated with inference. Consequently, the interpretation of representations of uncertainty is unclear. Representativeness, or degree of fit, is proposed as an interpretation of degree of belief for classification tasks. The calculation of representativeness depends on the nature of the associations between evidence and conclusions. Patterns of associations are characterized as endorsements of conclusions.


Cognitive Robotics

AI Magazine

The American Association for Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) held its 1998 Fall Symposium Series on 23 to 25 October at the Omni Rosen Hotel in Orlando, Florida. This article contains summaries of seven of the symposia that were conducted: (1) Cognitive Robotics; (2) Distributed, Continual Planning; (3) Emotional and Intelligent: The Tangled Knot of Cognition; (4) Integrated Planning for Autonomous Agent Architectures; (5) Planning with Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes; (6) Reasoning with Visual and Diagrammatic Representations; and (7) Robotics and Biology: Developing Connections. Research in cognitive robotics is concerned with the theory and implementation of robots that reason, act, and perceive in changing incompletely known, unpredictable environments. Such robots must have higherlevel cognitive functions that involve, for example, reasoning about goals, actions, the cognitive states of other agents, and time as well as when to perceive and what to look for.


Preference Handling -- An Introductory Tutorial

AI Magazine

We present a tutorial introduction to the area of preference handling--one of the core issues in the design of any system that automates or supports decision making. The main goal of this tutorial is to provide a framework, or perspective, within which current work on preference handling--representation, reasoning, and elicitation--can be understood. Our intention is not to provide a technical description of the diverse methods used but rather to provide a general perspective on the problem and its varied solutions and to highlight central ideas and techniques. Hence an understanding of the various aspects of preference handling should be of great relevance to anyone attempting to build systems that act on behalf of users or simply support their decisions. This could be a shopping site that attempts to help us identify the most preferred item, an information search and retrieval engine that attempts to provide us with the most preferred pieces of information, or more sophisticated embedded agents such as robots, personal assistants, and so on.


The Multi-Agent Programming Contest

AI Magazine

It was started in 2005 and is an annual event that attracts between 5 and 10 teams. It has since been organized by the AI group at Clausthal University of Technology. MAPC is not collocated with any other event. Using our MASSim platform, the participants are running their own systems locally and only interact with the tournament server over the Internet. A steering committee oversees the whole process and determines the organization committee. The scenario changes every other year: the current one is "Agents on Mars." The goal was to implement a team of heterogeneous, cooperating agents to occupy zones on planet Mars. The infrastructure on Mars is given by a directed graph (300 nodes). Agents could take on roles (explorer, sentinel, saboteur, repairer, inspector) and needed to cooperate in an environment with incomplete knowledge so as to win against a competing team: the graph was not known, and each action comes at a price. Conquered terrain brings in money to improve agents. The timeline of the contest is as follows.


PSINET: Assisting HIV Prevention Among Homeless Youth by Planning Ahead

AI Magazine

Homeless youth are prone to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) due to their engagement in high-risk behavior such as unprotected sex, sex under influence of drugs, and so on. Many nonprofit agencies conduct interventions to educate and train a select group of homeless youth about HIV prevention and treatment practices and rely on word-of-mouth spread of information through their one single social network Previous work in strategic selection of intervention participants does not handle uncertainties in the social networks' structure and evolving network state, potentially causing significant shortcomings in spread of information. Thus, we developed PSINET, a decision-support system to aid the agencies in this task. PSINET includes the following key novelties: (1) it handles uncertainties in network structure and evolving network state; (2) it addresses these uncertainties by using POMDPs in influence maximization; and (3) it provides algorithmic advances to allow high-quality approximate solutions for such POMDPs. Simulations show that PSINET achieves around 60 percent more information spread over the current state of the art.


Intelligent Multiobjective Optimization of Distribution System Operations

AI Magazine

A hybrid fuzzy knowledge-based system with crisp and fuzzy rules as well as numerical methods was developed for multiobjective optimization of power distribution system operation. The development process and knowledge-acquisition process for the fuzzy knowledge-based system are described in detail. Fuzzy sets are defined for recent temperature trend, line section loading, transformer aging, voltage-level guidelines, and the degree of desirability of a proposed switching combination. After a heuristic preprocessor proposes a list of switch openings that would seem to reduce system losses, network radiality rules consider whether to open a particular switch and find a corresponding switch that can be closed to maintain radiality. Network parameter rules determine whether the proposed switching combination will violate network integrity.


Inference in Bayesian Networks

AI Magazine

A Bayesian network is a compact, expressive representation of uncertain relationships among parameters in a domain. In this article, I introduce basic methods for computing with Bayesian networks, starting with the simple idea of summing the probabilities of events of interest. The article introduces major current methods for exact computation, briefly surveys approximation methods, and closes with a brief discussion of open issues. Often, truth is more elusive, and categorical statements can only be made by judgment of the likelihood or other ordinal attribute of competing propositions. Probability theory is the oldest and best-understood theory for representing and reasoning about such situations, but early AI experimental efforts at applying probability theory were disappointing and only confirmed a belief among AI researchers that those who worried about numbers were "missing the point."


Energy and Uncertainty: Models and Algorithms for Complex Energy Systems

AI Magazine

I highlight several of these applications, using a simple energy storage problem as a case application. Using this setting, I describe a modeling framework that is based on five fundamental dimensions and that is more natural than the standard canonical form widely used in the reinforcement learning community. The framework focuses on finding the best policy, where I identify four fundamental classes of policies consisting of policy function approximations (PFAs), cost function approximations (CFAs), policies based on value function approximations (VFAs), and look-ahead policies. There is the familiar array of decisions: discrete actions, continuous controls, and vector-valued (and possibly integer) decisions. The tools for these problems are drawn from computer science, engineering, applied math, and operations research.


Elicitation of Factored Utilities

AI Magazine

We provide a brief overview of recent direct preference elicitation methods: these methods ask users to answer (ideally, a small number of) queries regarding their preferences and use this information to recommend a feasible decision that would be (approximately) optimal given those preferences. We argue for the importance of assessing numerical utilities rather than qualitative preferences and survey several utility elicitation techniques from artificial intelligence, operations research, and conjoint analysis. Specifically, since the ability to make reasonable decisions on behalf of a user depends on that user's preferences over outcomes in the domain in question, AI systems must assess or estimate these preferences before making decisions. Designing effective preference assessment techniques to incorporate such user-specific considerations (that is, breaking the preference bottleneck) is one of the most important problems facing AI. In this brief survey, we focus on explicit elicitation techniques where a system actively queries a user to glean relevant preferences. Preference elicitation is difficult for two main reasons. First, many decision problems have exponentially sized outcome spaces, defined by the possible values of outcome attributes. As an illustrative example, consider sophisticated flight selection: possible outcomes are defined by attributes such as trip cost, departure time, return time, airline, number of connections, flight length, baggage weight limit, flight class, (the possibility of) lost luggage, flight delays, and other stochastic outcomes. An ideal decision support system should be able to use, for example, precise flight delay statistics and incorporate a user's relative tolerance for delays in making recommendations. Representing and eliciting preferences for all outcomes in a case like this is infeasible given the size of the outcome space. A second difficulty arises due to the fact that quantitative strength of preferences, or utility, is needed to trade off, for instance, the odds of flight delays with other attributes. Unfortunately, people are notoriously inept at quantifying their preferences with any degree of precision, adding to the challenges facing automated utility elicitation.