Elicitation of Factored Utilities

We provide a brief overview of recent direct preference elicitation methods: these methods ask users to answer (ideally, a small number of) queries regarding their preferences and use this information to recommend a feasible decision that would be (approximately) optimal given those preferences. We argue for the importance of assessing numerical utilities rather than qualitative preferences and survey several utility elicitation techniques from artificial intelligence, operations research, and conjoint analysis. Specifically, since the ability to make reasonable decisions on behalf of a user depends on that user's preferences over outcomes in the domain in question, AI systems must assess or estimate these preferences before making decisions. Designing effective preference assessment techniques to incorporate such user-specific considerations (that is, breaking the preference bottleneck) is one of the most important problems facing AI. In this brief survey, we focus on explicit elicitation techniques where a system actively queries a user to glean relevant preferences. Preference elicitation is difficult for two main reasons. First, many decision problems have exponentially sized outcome spaces, defined by the possible values of outcome attributes. As an illustrative example, consider sophisticated flight selection: possible outcomes are defined by attributes such as trip cost, departure time, return time, airline, number of connections, flight length, baggage weight limit, flight class, (the possibility of) lost luggage, flight delays, and other stochastic outcomes. An ideal decision support system should be able to use, for example, precise flight delay statistics and incorporate a user's relative tolerance for delays in making recommendations. Representing and eliciting preferences for all outcomes in a case like this is infeasible given the size of the outcome space. A second difficulty arises due to the fact that quantitative strength of preferences, or utility, is needed to trade off, for instance, the odds of flight delays with other attributes. Unfortunately, people are notoriously inept at quantifying their preferences with any degree of precision, adding to the challenges facing automated utility elicitation.