…making Bayesian networks more accessible to the probabilistically unsophisticated

Over the last few years, a method of reasoning using probabilities, variously called belief networks, Bayesian networks, knowledge maps, probabilistic causal networks, and so on, has become popular within the AI probability and uncertainty community. This method is best summarized in Judea Pearl's (1988) book, but the ideas are a product of many hands. I adopted Pearl's name, Bayesian networks, on the grounds that the name is completely neutral about the status of the networks (do they really represent beliefs, causality, or what?). I give an introduction to Bayesian networks for AI researchers with a limited grounding in probability theory. Over the last few years, this method of reasoning using probabilities has become popular within the AI probability and uncertainty community.