Our interest focuses on developing statistical methods for analysis of brain structural connectomes. Nodes in the brain connectome graph correspond to different regions of interest (ROIs) while edges correspond to white matter fiber connections between these ROIs. Due to the high-dimensionality and non-Euclidean nature of the data, it becomes challenging to conduct analyses of the population distribution of brain connectomes and relate connectomes to other factors, such as cognition. Current approaches focus on summarizing the graph using either pre-specified topological features or principal components analysis (PCA). In this article, we instead develop a nonlinear latent factor model for summarizing the brain graph in both unsupervised and supervised settings. The proposed approach builds on methods for hierarchical modeling of replicated graph data, as well as variational auto-encoders that use neural networks for dimensionality reduction. We refer to our method as Graph AuTo-Encoding (GATE). We compare GATE with tensor PCA and other competitors through simulations and applications to data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP).

The pioneering paper [Ito and Sagawa, 2013] analyzed the non-equilibrium statistical physics of a set of multiple interacting systems, S, whose joint discrete-time evolution is specified by a Bayesian network. The major result of [Ito and Sagawa, 2013] was an integral fluctuation theorem (IFT) governing the sum of two quantities: the entropy production (EP) of an arbitrary single v in S, and the transfer entropy from v to the other systems. Here I extend the analysis in [Ito and Sagawa, 2013]. I derive several detailed fluctuation theorems (DFTs), concerning arbitrary subsets of all the systems (including the full set). I also derive several associated IFTs, concerning an arbitrary subset of the systems, thereby extending the IFT in [Ito and Sagawa, 2013]. In addition I derive "conditional" DFTs and IFTs, involving conditional probability distributions rather than (as in conventional fluctuation theorems) unconditioned distributions. I then derive thermodynamic uncertainty relations relating the total EP of the Bayes net to the set of all the precisions of probability currents within the individual systems. I end with an example of that uncertainty relation.

Posterior collapse in Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) arises when the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior for a subset of latent variables. This paper presents a simple and intuitive explanation for posterior collapse through the analysis of linear VAEs and their direct correspondence with Probabilistic PCA (pPCA). We explain how posterior collapse may occur in pPCA due to local maxima in the log marginal likelihood. Unexpectedly, we prove that the ELBO objective for the linear VAE does not introduce additional spurious local maxima relative to log marginal likelihood. We show further that training a linear VAE with exact variational inference recovers an identifiable global maximum corresponding to the principal component directions. Empirically, we find that our linear analysis is predictive even for high-capacity, non-linear VAEs and helps explain the relationship between the observation noise, local maxima, and posterior collapse in deep Gaussian VAEs.

Normative expert systems have not become commonplace because they have been difficult to build and use. Over the past decade, however, researchers have developed the influence diagram, a graphical representation of a decision maker's beliefs, alternatives, and preferences that serves as the knowledge base of a normative expert system. Most people who have seen the representation find it intuitive and easy to use. Consequently, the influence diagram has overcome significantly the barriers to constructing normative expert systems. Nevertheless, building influence diagrams is not practical for extremely large and complex domains. In this book, I address the difficulties associated with the construction of the probabilistic portion of an influence diagram, called a knowledge map, belief network, or Bayesian network. I introduce two representations that facilitate the generation of large knowledge maps. In particular, I introduce the similarity network, a tool for building the network structure of a knowledge map, and the partition, a tool for assessing the probabilities associated with a knowledge map. I then use these representations to build Pathfinder, a large normative expert system for the diagnosis of lymph-node diseases (the domain contains over 60 diseases and over 100 disease findings). In an early version of the system, I encoded the knowledge of the expert using an erroneous assumption that all disease findings were independent, given each disease. When the expert and I attempted to build a more accurate knowledge map for the domain that would capture the dependencies among the disease findings, we failed. Using a similarity network, however, we built the knowledge-map structure for the entire domain in approximately 40 hours. Furthermore, the partition representation reduced the number of probability assessments required by the expert from 75,000 to 14,000.

Outlier detection is a core task in data mining with a plethora of algorithms that have enjoyed wide scale usage. Existing algorithms are primarily focused on detection, that is the identification of outliers in a given dataset. In this paper we explore the relatively under-studied problem of the outlier explanation problem. Our goal is, given a dataset that is already divided into outliers and normal instances, explain what characterizes the outliers. We explore the novel direction of a semantic explanation that a domain expert or policy maker is able to understand. We formulate this as an optimization problem to find explanations that are both interpretable and pure. Through experiments on real-world data sets, we quantitatively show that our method can efficiently generate better explanations compared with rule-based learners.

Two commonly arising computational tasks in Bayesian learning are Optimization (Maximum A Posteriori estimation) and Sampling (from the posterior distribution). In the convex case these two problems are efficiently reducible to each other. Recent work (Ma et al. 2019) shows that in the non-convex case, sampling can sometimes be provably faster. We present a simpler and stronger separation. We then compare sampling and optimization in more detail and show that they are provably incomparable: there are families of continuous functions for which optimization is easy but sampling is NP-hard, and vice versa. Further, we show function families that exhibit a sharp phase transition in the computational complexity of sampling, as one varies the natural temperature parameter. Our results draw on a connection to analogous separations in the discrete setting which are well-studied.

In this work, we investigate the use of normalizing flows to model conditional distributions. In particular, we use our proposed method to analyze inverse problems with invertible neural networks by maximizing the posterior likelihood. Our method uses only a single loss and is easy to train. This is an improvement on the previous method that solves similar inverse problems with invertible neural networks but which involves a combination of several loss terms with ad-hoc weighting. In addition, our method provides a natural framework to incorporate conditioning in normalizing flows, and therefore, we can train an invertible network to perform conditional generation. We analyze our method and perform a careful comparison with previous approaches. Simple experiments show the effectiveness of our method, and more comprehensive experimental evaluations are undergoing.

We study the problem, introduced by Qiao and Valiant, of learning from untrusted batches. Here, we assume $m$ users, all of whom have samples from some underlying distribution $p$ over $1, \ldots, n$. Each user sends a batch of $k$ i.i.d. samples from this distribution; however an $\epsilon$-fraction of users are untrustworthy and can send adversarially chosen responses. The goal is then to learn $p$ in total variation distance. When $k = 1$ this is the standard robust univariate density estimation setting and it is well-understood that $\Omega (\epsilon)$ error is unavoidable. Suprisingly, Qiao and Valiant gave an estimator which improves upon this rate when $k$ is large. Unfortunately, their algorithms run in time exponential in either $n$ or $k$. We first give a sequence of polynomial time algorithms whose estimation error approaches the information-theoretically optimal bound for this problem. Our approach is based on recent algorithms derived from the sum-of-squares hierarchy, in the context of high-dimensional robust estimation. We show that algorithms for learning from untrusted batches can also be cast in this framework, but by working with a more complicated set of test functions. It turns out this abstraction is quite powerful and can be generalized to incorporate additional problem specific constraints. Our second and main result is to show that this technology can be leveraged to build in prior knowledge about the shape of the distribution. Crucially, this allows us to reduce the sample complexity of learning from untrusted batches to polylogarithmic in $n$ for most natural classes of distributions, which is important in many applications. To do so, we demonstrate that these sum-of-squares algorithms for robust mean estimation can be made to handle complex combinatorial constraints (e.g. those arising from VC theory), which may be of independent technical interest.

Wessel Bruinsma ‡ wpb23@cam.ac.uk 1. Introduction A principled approach to prediction tasks is to choose a statistical model that explains the data. The choice of the model class is crucial and has to observe the bias-variance tradeoff, which motivates the need for principled approaches to selecting the best model class from a set of options. Whilst model selection can be done manually by trial and error, the process tends to consume considerable time and resources and be prone to human biases. Bayesian model selection (MacKay, 1992; Rasmussen and Ghahramani, 2001), treats the model class as a random variable and computes its posterior distribution. It offers a built-in complexity regulariser, commonly known as Bayesian Occams razor, which penalises models whose complexity is excessive or too modest.

In the last years, crowdsourcing is transforming the way classification training sets are obtained. Instead of relying on a single expert annotator, crowdsourcing shares the labelling effort among a large number of collaborators. For instance, this is being applied to the data acquired by the laureate Laser Interferometer Gravitational Waves Observatory (LIGO), in order to detect glitches which might hinder the identification of true gravitational-waves. The crowdsourcing scenario poses new challenging difficulties, as it deals with different opinions from a heterogeneous group of annotators with unknown degrees of expertise. Probabilistic methods, such as Gaussian Processes (GP), have proven successful in modeling this setting. However, GPs do not scale well to large data sets, which hampers their broad adoption in real practice (in particular at LIGO). This has led to the recent introduction of deep learning based crowdsourcing methods, which have become the state-of-the-art. However, the accurate uncertainty quantification of GPs has been partially sacrificed. This is an important aspect for astrophysicists in LIGO, since a glitch detection system should provide very accurate probability distributions of its predictions. In this work, we leverage the most popular sparse GP approximation to develop a novel GP based crowdsourcing method that factorizes into mini-batches. This makes it able to cope with previously-prohibitive data sets. The approach, which we refer to as Scalable Variational Gaussian Processes for Crowdsourcing (SVGPCR), brings back GP-based methods to the state-of-the-art, and excels at uncertainty quantification. SVGPCR is shown to outperform deep learning based methods and previous probabilistic approaches when applied to the LIGO data. Moreover, its behavior and main properties are carefully analyzed in a controlled experiment based on the MNIST data set.