Gaussian Process (GPs) models are a rich distribution over functions with inductive biases controlled by a kernel function. Learning occurs through the optimisation of kernel hyperparameters using the marginal likelihood as the objective. This classical approach known as Type-II maximum likelihood (ML-II) yields point estimates of the hyperparameters, and continues to be the default method for training GPs. However, this approach risks underestimating predictive uncertainty and is prone to overfitting especially when there are many hyperparameters. Furthermore, gradient based optimisation makes ML-II point estimates highly susceptible to the presence of local minima. This work presents an alternative learning procedure where the hyperparameters of the kernel function are marginalised using Nested Sampling (NS), a technique that is well suited to sample from complex, multi-modal distributions. We focus on regression tasks with the spectral mixture (SM) class of kernels and find that a principled approach to quantifying model uncertainty leads to substantial gains in predictive performance across a range of synthetic and benchmark data sets. In this context, nested sampling is also found to offer a speed advantage over Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), widely considered to be the gold-standard in MCMC based inference.

Normalizing flows and variational autoencoders are powerful generative models that can represent complicated density functions. However, they both impose constraints on the models: Normalizing flows use bijective transformations to model densities whereas VAEs learn stochastic transformations that are non-invertible and thus typically do not provide tractable estimates of the marginal likelihood. In this paper, we introduce SurVAE Flows: A modular framework of composable transformations that encompasses VAEs and normalizing flows. SurVAE Flows bridge the gap between normalizing flows and VAEs with surjective transformations, wherein the transformations are deterministic in one direction -- thereby allowing exact likelihood computation, and stochastic in the reverse direction -- hence providing a lower bound on the corresponding likelihood. We show that several recently proposed methods, including dequantization and augmented normalizing flows, can be expressed as SurVAE Flows. Finally, we introduce common operations such as the max value, the absolute value, sorting and stochastic permutation as composable layers in SurVAE Flows.

Brittle optimization has been observed to adversely impact model likelihoods for regression and VAEs when simultaneously fitting neural network mappings from a (random) variable onto the mean and variance of a dependent Gaussian variable. Previous works have bolstered optimization and improved likelihoods, but fail other basic posterior predictive checks (PPCs). Under the PPC framework, we propose critiques to test predictive mean and variance calibration and the predictive distribution's ability to generate sensible data. We find that our attractively simple solution, to treat heteroscedastic variance variationally, sufficiently regularizes variance to pass these PPCs. We consider a diverse gamut of existing and novel priors and find our methods preserve or outperform existing model likelihoods while significantly improving parameter calibration and sample quality for regression and VAEs.

Clinical decision making about treatments and interventions based on personal characteristics leads to effective health improvement. Machine learning (ML) has been the central concern of the diagnosis support and disease prediction based on comprehensive patient information. Because the black-box problem in ML is serious for medical applications, explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to explain the reasons for ML models predictions have been focused. A remaining important issue in clinical situations is discovery of concrete and realistic treatment processes. This paper proposes an innovative framework to plan concrete treatment processes based on an ML model. A key point of our proposed framework is to evaluate an "actionability" of the treatment process using a stochastic surrogate model constructed through hierarchical Bayesian modeling. The actionability is an essential concept for suggesting a realistic treatment process, which leads to clinical applications for personal health improvement. This paper also presents two experiments to evaluate our framework. We first demonstrate the feasibility of our framework from the viewpoint of the methodology using a synthetic dataset. Subsequently, our framework is applied to an actual health checkup dataset, which comprises 3,132 participants, considering an application to improve systolic blood pressure values at a personal level. We confirmed that the computed treatment processes are actionable and consistent with clinical knowledge for lowering blood pressure. These results demonstrate that our framework can contribute to decision making in the medical field. Our framework can be expected to provide clinicians deeper insights by proposing concrete and actionable treatment process based on the ML model.

We present a reformulation of the regression and classification, which aims to validate the result of a machine learning algorithm. Our reformulation simplifies the original problem and validates the result of the machine learning algorithm using the training data. Since the validation of machine learning algorithms must always be explainable, we perform our experiments with the kNN algorithm as well as with an algorithm based on conditional probabilities, which is proposed in this work. For the evaluation of our approach, three publicly available data sets were used and three classification and two regression problems were evaluated. The presented algorithm based on conditional probabilities is also online capable and requires only a fraction of memory compared to the kNN algorithm.

A fundamental question in neuroscience is how the brain creates an internal model of the world to guide actions using sequences of ambiguous sensory information. This is naturally formulated as a reinforcement learning problem under partial observations, where an agent must estimate relevant latent variables in the world from its evidence, anticipate possible future states, and choose actions that optimize total expected reward. This problem can be solved by control theory, which allows us to find the optimal actions for a given system dynamics and objective function. However, animals often appear to behave suboptimally. Why? We hypothesize that animals have their own flawed internal model of the world, and choose actions with the highest expected subjective reward according to that flawed model. We describe this behavior as rational but not optimal. The problem of Inverse Rational Control (IRC) aims to identify which internal model would best explain an agent's actions. Our contribution here generalizes past work on Inverse Rational Control which solved this problem for discrete control in partially observable Markov decision processes. Here we accommodate continuous nonlinear dynamics and continuous actions, and impute sensory observations corrupted by unknown noise that is private to the animal. We first build an optimal Bayesian agent that learns an optimal policy generalized over the entire model space of dynamics and subjective rewards using deep reinforcement learning. Crucially, this allows us to compute a likelihood over models for experimentally observable action trajectories acquired from a suboptimal agent. We then find the model parameters that maximize the likelihood using gradient ascent.

We propose to learn energy-based model (EBM) in the latent space of a generator model, so that the EBM serves as a prior model that stands on the top-down network of the generator model. Both the latent space EBM and the top-down network can be learned jointly by maximum likelihood, which involves short-run MCMC sampling from both the prior and posterior distributions of the latent vector. Due to the low dimensionality of the latent space and the expressiveness of the top-down network, a simple EBM in latent space can capture regularities in the data effectively, and MCMC sampling in latent space is efficient and mixes well. We show that the learned model exhibits strong performances in terms of image and text generation and anomaly detection. The one-page code can be found in supplementary materials.

We investigate partial identification of causal relative and attributable risk---the ratio of two counterfactual proportions and the difference between them---in case-control and case-population studies. The odds ratio is shown to be a sharp upper bound on causal relative risk under the monotone treatment response and monotone treatment selection assumptions, without resorting to strong ignorability, nor to the rare-disease assumption. Sharp bounds on causal attributable risk are also obtained under the same assumptions. Paying special attention to the (conditional) odds ratio, we propose a semiparametrically efficient estimator of the aggregated (log) odds ratio. Further, we develop easy-to-implement causal inference procedures for relative and attributable risk. Finally, we showcase our methodology by applying it to two unique datasets in the literature. We find that attending private school may have little effect on entering a very selective university in Pakistan and that dropping out of school could substantially increase relative and attributable risk of joining a criminal gang in Brazil.

Probability is the cornerstone of Artificial Intelligence. The management of uncertainty is key to many applications of AI, such as machine learning, filtering, robotics, computer vision, NLP, search and so on. And no other sector is the management of uncertainty as crucial as it is in the health sector. At first glance, the false-negative seems more devastating. Of course, a false allergy test-result has the likely outcome of a GP administering a drug to you that could cause life-threatening issues.

We present a computational model of mathematical reasoning according to which mathematics is a fundamentally stochastic process. That is, on our model, whether or not a given formula is deemed a theorem in some axiomatic system is not a matter of certainty, but is instead governed by a probability distribution. We then show that this framework gives a compelling account of several aspects of mathematical practice. These include: 1) the way in which mathematicians generate research programs, 2) the applicability of Bayesian models of mathematical heuristics, 3) the role of abductive reasoning in mathematics, 4) the way in which multiple proofs of a proposition can strengthen our degree of belief in that proposition, and 5) the nature of the hypothesis that there are multiple formal systems that are isomorphic to physically possible universes. Thus, by embracing a model of mathematics as not perfectly predictable, we generate a new and fruitful perspective on the epistemology and practice of mathematics.