Predictions obtained by, e.g., artificial neural networks have a high accuracy but humans often perceive the models as black boxes. Insights about the decision making are mostly opaque for humans. Particularly understanding the decision making in highly sensitive areas such as healthcare or finance, is of paramount importance. The decision-making behind the black boxes requires it to be more transparent, accountable, and understandable for humans. This survey paper provides essential definitions, an overview of the different principles and methodologies of explainable Supervised Machine Learning (SML). We conduct a state-of-the-art survey that reviews past and recent explainable SML approaches and classifies them according to the introduced definitions. Finally, we illustrate principles by means of an explanatory case study and discuss important future directions.

Falls are a common problem affecting the older adults and a major public health issue. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and World Health Organization report that one in three adults over the age of 65 and half of the adults over 80 fall each year. In recent years, an ever-increasing range of applications have been developed to help deliver more effective falls prevention interventions. All these applications rely on a huge elderly personal database collected from hospitals, mutual health, and other organizations in caring for elderly. The information describing an elderly is continually evolving and may become obsolete at a given moment and contradict what we already know on the same person. So, it needs to be continuously checked and updated in order to restore the database consistency and then provide better service. This paper provides an outline of an Obsolete personal Information Update System (OIUS) designed in the context of the elderly-fall prevention project. Our OIUS aims to control and update in real-time the information acquired about each older adult, provide on-demand consistent information and supply tailored interventions to caregivers and fall-risk patients. The approach outlined for this purpose is based on a polynomial-time algorithm build on top of a causal Bayesian network representing the elderly data. The result is given as a recommendation tree with some accuracy level. We conduct a thorough empirical study for such a model on an elderly personal information base. Experiments confirm the viability and effectiveness of our OIUS.

Wind farms are a crucial driver toward the generation of ecological and renewable energy. Due to their rapid increase in capacity, contemporary wind farms need to adhere to strict constraints on power output to ensure stability of the electricity grid. Specifically, a wind farm controller is required to match the farm's power production with a power demand imposed by the grid operator. This is a non-trivial optimization problem, as complex dependencies exist between the wind turbines. State-of-the-art wind farm control typically relies on physics-based heuristics that fail to capture the full load spectrum that defines a turbine's health status. When this is not taken into account, the long-term viability of the farm's turbines is put at risk. Given the complex dependencies that determine a turbine's lifetime, learning a flexible and optimal control strategy requires a data-driven approach. However, as wind farms are large-scale multi-agent systems, optimizing control strategies over the full joint action space is intractable. We propose a new learning method for wind farm control that leverages the sparse wind farm structure to factorize the optimization problem. Using a Bayesian approach, based on multi-agent Thompson sampling, we explore the factored joint action space for configurations that match the demand, while considering the lifetime of turbines. We apply our method to a grid-like wind farm layout, and evaluate configurations using a state-of-the-art wind flow simulator. Our results are competitive with a physics-based heuristic approach in terms of demand error, while, contrary to the heuristic, our method prolongs the lifetime of high-risk turbines.

Adaptive control approaches yield high-performance controllers when a precise system model or suitable parametrizations of the controller are available. Existing data-driven approaches for adaptive control mostly augment standard model-based methods with additional information about uncertainties in the dynamics or about disturbances. In this work, we propose a purely data-driven, model-free approach for adaptive control. Tuning low-level controllers based solely on system data raises concerns on the underlying algorithm safety and computational performance. Thus, our approach builds on GoOSE, an algorithm for safe and sample-efficient Bayesian optimization. We introduce several computational and algorithmic modifications in GoOSE that enable its practical use on a rotational motion system. We numerically demonstrate for several types of disturbances that our approach is sample efficient, outperforms constrained Bayesian optimization in terms of safety, and achieves the performance optima computed by grid evaluation. We further demonstrate the proposed adaptive control approach experimentally on a rotational motion system.

The mathematics of quantum mechanics has been viewed and analyzed from a huge variety of different perspectives, each shedding light on different subtleties of its underlying structure and its connection to our everyday reality. Here we add an additional thread to this conceptual polyphony, demonstrating a close connection between fuzzy paraconsistent logic and quantum probabilities. This connection suggests new variations on existing interpretations of quantum reality and measurement. It also provides some tantalizing connections between the probabilistic and fuzzy logic used in modern AI systems and quantum probabilistic reasoning, which may have implications for quantum-computing implementations of logical inference based AI. The ideas here arose as a spinoff from the work reported in [Goe21], which uses a variety of paraconsistent intuitionistic logic called Constructible Duality (CD) Logic as a means for giving a rigorous logic foundation to the PLN (Probabilistic Logic Networks) logic [GIGH08] that has been used in the OpenCog AI project [GPG13a, GPG13b] for well over a decade now.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) now serves as one of the major strategies to perform model choice and parameter inference on models with intractable likelihoods. An essential component of ABC involves comparing a large amount of simulated data with the observed data through summary statistics. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, summary statistic selection is of prime importance, and becomes even more critical when applying ABC to mechanistic network models. Indeed, while many summary statistics can be used to encode network structures, their computational complexity can be highly variable. For large networks, computation of summary statistics can quickly create a bottleneck, making the use of ABC difficult. To reduce this computational burden and make the analysis of mechanistic network models more practical, we investigated two questions in a model choice framework. First, we studied the utility of cost-based filter selection methods to account for different summary costs during the selection process. Second, we performed selection using networks generated with a smaller number of nodes to reduce the time required for the selection step. Our findings show that computationally inexpensive summary statistics can be efficiently selected with minimal impact on classification accuracy. Furthermore, we found that networks with a smaller number of nodes can only be employed to eliminate a moderate number of summaries. While this latter finding is network specific, the former is general and can be adapted to any ABC application.

Predictive uncertainty estimation is an essential next step for the reliable deployment of deep object detectors in safety-critical tasks. In this work, we focus on estimating predictive distributions for bounding box regression output with variance networks. We show that in the context of object detection, training variance networks with negative log likelihood (NLL) can lead to high entropy predictive distributions regardless of the correctness of the output mean. We propose to use the energy score as a non-local proper scoring rule and find that when used for training, the energy score leads to better calibrated and lower entropy predictive distributions than NLL. We also address the widespread use of non-proper scoring metrics for evaluating predictive distributions from deep object detectors by proposing an alternate evaluation approach founded on proper scoring rules. Using the proposed evaluation tools, we show that although variance networks can be used to produce high quality predictive distributions, adhoc approaches used by seminal object detectors for choosing regression targets during training do not provide wide enough data support for reliable variance learning. We hope that our work helps shift evaluation in probabilistic object detection to better align with predictive uncertainty evaluation in other machine learning domains. Deep object detectors are being increasingly deployed as perception components in safety critical robotics and automation applications. For reliable and safe operation, subsequent tasks using detectors as sensors require meaningful predictive uncertainty estimates correlated with their outputs. As an example, overconfident incorrect predictions can lead to non-optimal decision making in planning tasks, while underconfident correct predictions can lead to under-utilizing information in sensor fusion. This paper investigates probabilistic object detectors, extensions of standard object detectors that estimate predictive distributions for output categories and bounding boxes simultaneously. This paper aims to identify the shortcomings of recent trends followed by state-of-the-art probabilistic object detectors, and proposes to provide theoretically founded solutions for identified issues.

The information describing the conditions of a system or a person is constantly evolving and may become obsolete and contradict other information. A database, therefore, must be consistently updated upon the acquisition of new valid observations that contradict obsolete ones contained in the database. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for dealing with the information obsolescence problem. Our approach aims to detect, in real-time, contradictions between observations and then identify the obsolete ones, given a representation model. Since we work within an uncertain environment characterized by the lack of information, we choose to use a Bayesian network as our representation model and propose a new approximate concept, $\epsilon$-Contradiction. The new concept is parameterised by a confidence level of having a contradiction in a set of observations. We propose a polynomial-time algorithm for detecting obsolete information. We show that the resulting obsolete information is better represented by an AND-OR tree than a simple set of observations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a real elderly fall-prevention database and showcase how this tree can be used to give reliable recommendations to doctors. Our experiments give systematically and substantially very good results.

Brain Computer Interface technologies are popular methods of communication between the human brain and external devices. One of the most popular approaches to BCI is Motor Imagery. In BCI applications, the ElectroEncephaloGraphy is a very popular measurement for brain dynamics because of its non-invasive nature. Although there is a high interest in the BCI topic, the performance of existing systems is still far from ideal, due to the difficulty of performing pattern recognition tasks in EEG signals. BCI systems are composed of a wide range of components that perform signal pre-processing, feature extraction and decision making. In this paper, we define a BCI Framework, named Enhanced Fusion Framework, where we propose three different ideas to improve the existing MI-based BCI frameworks. Firstly, we include aan additional pre-processing step of the signal: a differentiation of the EEG signal that makes it time-invariant. Secondly, we add an additional frequency band as feature for the system and we show its effect on the performance of the system. Finally, we make a profound study of how to make the final decision in the system. We propose the usage of both up to six types of different classifiers and a wide range of aggregation functions (including classical aggregations, Choquet and Sugeno integrals and their extensions and overlap functions) to fuse the information given by the considered classifiers. We have tested this new system on a dataset of 20 volunteers performing motor imagery-based brain-computer interface experiments. On this dataset, the new system achieved a 88.80% of accuracy. We also propose an optimized version of our system that is able to obtain up to 90,76%. Furthermore, we find that the pair Choquet/Sugeno integrals and overlap functions are the ones providing the best results.

Amortised inference enables scalable learning of sequential latent-variable models (LVMs) with the evidence lower bound (ELBO). In this setting, variational posteriors are often only partially conditioned. While the true posteriors depend, e.g., on the entire sequence of observations, approximate posteriors are only informed by past observations. This mimics the Bayesian filter -- a mixture of smoothing posteriors. Yet, we show that the ELBO objective forces partially-conditioned amortised posteriors to approximate products of smoothing posteriors instead. Consequently, the learned generative model is compromised. We demonstrate these theoretical findings in three scenarios: traffic flow, handwritten digits, and aerial vehicle dynamics. Using fully-conditioned approximate posteriors, performance improves in terms of generative modelling and multi-step prediction.