Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) now serves as one of the major strategies to perform model choice and parameter inference on models with intractable likelihoods. An essential component of ABC involves comparing a large amount of simulated data with the observed data through summary statistics. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, summary statistic selection is of prime importance, and becomes even more critical when applying ABC to mechanistic network models. Indeed, while many summary statistics can be used to encode network structures, their computational complexity can be highly variable. For large networks, computation of summary statistics can quickly create a bottleneck, making the use of ABC difficult. To reduce this computational burden and make the analysis of mechanistic network models more practical, we investigated two questions in a model choice framework. First, we studied the utility of cost-based filter selection methods to account for different summary costs during the selection process. Second, we performed selection using networks generated with a smaller number of nodes to reduce the time required for the selection step. Our findings show that computationally inexpensive summary statistics can be efficiently selected with minimal impact on classification accuracy. Furthermore, we found that networks with a smaller number of nodes can only be employed to eliminate a moderate number of summaries. While this latter finding is network specific, the former is general and can be adapted to any ABC application.

Predictive uncertainty estimation is an essential next step for the reliable deployment of deep object detectors in safety-critical tasks. In this work, we focus on estimating predictive distributions for bounding box regression output with variance networks. We show that in the context of object detection, training variance networks with negative log likelihood (NLL) can lead to high entropy predictive distributions regardless of the correctness of the output mean. We propose to use the energy score as a non-local proper scoring rule and find that when used for training, the energy score leads to better calibrated and lower entropy predictive distributions than NLL. We also address the widespread use of non-proper scoring metrics for evaluating predictive distributions from deep object detectors by proposing an alternate evaluation approach founded on proper scoring rules. Using the proposed evaluation tools, we show that although variance networks can be used to produce high quality predictive distributions, adhoc approaches used by seminal object detectors for choosing regression targets during training do not provide wide enough data support for reliable variance learning. We hope that our work helps shift evaluation in probabilistic object detection to better align with predictive uncertainty evaluation in other machine learning domains. Deep object detectors are being increasingly deployed as perception components in safety critical robotics and automation applications. For reliable and safe operation, subsequent tasks using detectors as sensors require meaningful predictive uncertainty estimates correlated with their outputs. As an example, overconfident incorrect predictions can lead to non-optimal decision making in planning tasks, while underconfident correct predictions can lead to under-utilizing information in sensor fusion. This paper investigates probabilistic object detectors, extensions of standard object detectors that estimate predictive distributions for output categories and bounding boxes simultaneously. This paper aims to identify the shortcomings of recent trends followed by state-of-the-art probabilistic object detectors, and proposes to provide theoretically founded solutions for identified issues.

The information describing the conditions of a system or a person is constantly evolving and may become obsolete and contradict other information. A database, therefore, must be consistently updated upon the acquisition of new valid observations that contradict obsolete ones contained in the database. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for dealing with the information obsolescence problem. Our approach aims to detect, in real-time, contradictions between observations and then identify the obsolete ones, given a representation model. Since we work within an uncertain environment characterized by the lack of information, we choose to use a Bayesian network as our representation model and propose a new approximate concept, $\epsilon$-Contradiction. The new concept is parameterised by a confidence level of having a contradiction in a set of observations. We propose a polynomial-time algorithm for detecting obsolete information. We show that the resulting obsolete information is better represented by an AND-OR tree than a simple set of observations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a real elderly fall-prevention database and showcase how this tree can be used to give reliable recommendations to doctors. Our experiments give systematically and substantially very good results.

Brain Computer Interface technologies are popular methods of communication between the human brain and external devices. One of the most popular approaches to BCI is Motor Imagery. In BCI applications, the ElectroEncephaloGraphy is a very popular measurement for brain dynamics because of its non-invasive nature. Although there is a high interest in the BCI topic, the performance of existing systems is still far from ideal, due to the difficulty of performing pattern recognition tasks in EEG signals. BCI systems are composed of a wide range of components that perform signal pre-processing, feature extraction and decision making. In this paper, we define a BCI Framework, named Enhanced Fusion Framework, where we propose three different ideas to improve the existing MI-based BCI frameworks. Firstly, we include aan additional pre-processing step of the signal: a differentiation of the EEG signal that makes it time-invariant. Secondly, we add an additional frequency band as feature for the system and we show its effect on the performance of the system. Finally, we make a profound study of how to make the final decision in the system. We propose the usage of both up to six types of different classifiers and a wide range of aggregation functions (including classical aggregations, Choquet and Sugeno integrals and their extensions and overlap functions) to fuse the information given by the considered classifiers. We have tested this new system on a dataset of 20 volunteers performing motor imagery-based brain-computer interface experiments. On this dataset, the new system achieved a 88.80% of accuracy. We also propose an optimized version of our system that is able to obtain up to 90,76%. Furthermore, we find that the pair Choquet/Sugeno integrals and overlap functions are the ones providing the best results.

Amortised inference enables scalable learning of sequential latent-variable models (LVMs) with the evidence lower bound (ELBO). In this setting, variational posteriors are often only partially conditioned. While the true posteriors depend, e.g., on the entire sequence of observations, approximate posteriors are only informed by past observations. This mimics the Bayesian filter -- a mixture of smoothing posteriors. Yet, we show that the ELBO objective forces partially-conditioned amortised posteriors to approximate products of smoothing posteriors instead. Consequently, the learned generative model is compromised. We demonstrate these theoretical findings in three scenarios: traffic flow, handwritten digits, and aerial vehicle dynamics. Using fully-conditioned approximate posteriors, performance improves in terms of generative modelling and multi-step prediction.

Finding an expert plays a crucial role in driving successful collaborations and speeding up high-quality research development and innovations. However, the rapid growth of scientific publications and digital expertise data makes identifying the right experts a challenging problem. Existing approaches for finding experts given a topic can be categorised into information retrieval techniques based on vector space models, document language models, and graph-based models. In this paper, we propose $\textit{ExpFinder}$, a new ensemble model for expert finding, that integrates a novel $N$-gram vector space model, denoted as $n$VSM, and a graph-based model, denoted as $\textit{$\mu$CO-HITS}$, that is a proposed variation of the CO-HITS algorithm. The key of $n$VSM is to exploit recent inverse document frequency weighting method for $N$-gram words and $\textit{ExpFinder}$ incorporates $n$VSM into $\textit{$\mu$CO-HITS}$ to achieve expert finding. We comprehensively evaluate $\textit{ExpFinder}$ on four different datasets from the academic domains in comparison with six different expert finding models. The evaluation results show that $\textit{ExpFinder}$ is a highly effective model for expert finding, substantially outperforming all the compared models in 19% to 160.2%.

The multinomial probit Bayesian additive regression trees (MPBART) framework was proposed by Kindo et al. (KD), approximating the latent utilities in the multinomial probit (MNP) model with BART (Chipman et al. 2010). Compared to multinomial logistic models, MNP does not assume independent alternatives and the correlation structure among alternatives can be specified through multivariate Gaussian distributed latent utilities. We introduce two new algorithms for fitting the MPBART and show that the theoretical mixing rates of our proposals are equal or superior to the existing algorithm in KD. Through simulations, we explore the robustness of the methods to the choice of reference level, imbalance in outcome frequencies, and the specifications of prior hyperparameters for the utility error term. The work is motivated by the application of generating posterior predictive distributions for mortality and engagement in care among HIV-positive patients based on electronic health records (EHRs) from the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) in Kenya. In both the application and simulations, we observe better performance using our proposals as compared to KD in terms of MCMC convergence rate and posterior predictive accuracy.

The right to be forgotten has been legislated in many countries but the enforcement in machine learning would cause unbearable costs: companies may need to delete whole models trained from massive resources because of single individual requests. Existing works propose to remove the influence of the requested datums on the learned models via its influence function which is no longer naturally well-defined in Bayesian inference. To address this problem, this paper proposes a {\it Bayesian inference forgetting} (BIF) framework to extend the applicable domain to Bayesian inference. In the BIF framework, we develop forgetting algorithms for variational inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that our algorithms can provably remove the influence of single datums on the learned models. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that our algorithms have guaranteed generalizability. Experiments of Gaussian mixture models on the synthetic dataset and Bayesian neural networks on the Fashion-MNIST dataset verify the feasibility of our methods. The source code package is available at \url{https://github.com/fshp971/BIF}.

Federated learning brings potential benefits of faster learning, better solutions, and a greater propensity to transfer when heterogeneous data from different parties increases diversity. However, because federated learning tasks tend to be large and complex, and training times non-negligible, it is important for the aggregation algorithm to be robust to non-IID data and corrupted parties. This robustness relies on the ability to identify, and appropriately weight, incompatible parties. Recent work assumes that a \textit{reference dataset} is available through which to perform the identification. We consider settings where no such reference dataset is available; rather, the quality and suitability of the parties needs to be \textit{inferred}. We do so by bringing ideas from crowdsourced predictions and collaborative filtering, where one must infer an unknown ground truth given proposals from participants with unknown quality. We propose novel federated learning aggregation algorithms based on Bayesian inference that adapt to the quality of the parties. Empirically, we show that the algorithms outperform standard and robust aggregation in federated learning on both synthetic and real data.

In the continual effort to improve product quality and decrease operations costs, computational modeling is increasingly being deployed to determine feasibility of product designs or configurations. Surrogate modeling of these computer experiments via local models, which induce sparsity by only considering short range interactions, can tackle huge analyses of complicated input-output relationships. However, narrowing focus to local scale means that global trends must be re-learned over and over again. In this article, we propose a framework for incorporating information from a global sensitivity analysis into the surrogate model as an input rotation and rescaling preprocessing step. We discuss the relationship between several sensitivity analysis methods based on kernel regression before describing how they give rise to a transformation of the input variables. Specifically, we perform an input warping such that the "warped simulator" is equally sensitive to all input directions, freeing local models to focus on local dynamics. Numerical experiments on observational data and benchmark test functions, including a high-dimensional computer simulator from the automotive industry, provide empirical validation.