Recent works have suggested that finite Bayesian neural networks may outperform their infinite cousins because finite networks can flexibly adapt their internal representations. However, our theoretical understanding of how the learned hidden layer representations of finite networks differ from the fixed representations of infinite networks remains incomplete. Perturbative finite-width corrections to the network prior and posterior have been studied, but the asymptotics of learned features have not been fully characterized. Here, we argue that the leading finite-width corrections to the average feature kernels for any Bayesian network with linear readout and quadratic cost have a largely universal form. We illustrate this explicitly for two classes of fully connected networks: deep linear networks and networks with a single nonlinear hidden layer. Our results begin to elucidate which features of data wide Bayesian neural networks learn to represent.

We consider the problem of learning structures and parameters of Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) from time-course data under minimal experimental resources. In practice, the cost of generating experimental data poses a bottleneck, especially in the natural and social sciences. A popular approach to overcome this is Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED). However, BOED becomes infeasible in high-dimensional settings, as it involves integration over all possible experimental outcomes. We propose a novel criterion for experimental design based on a variational approximation of the expected information gain. We show that for CTBNs, a semi-analytical expression for this criterion can be calculated for structure and parameter learning. By doing so, we can replace sampling over experimental outcomes by solving the CTBNs master-equation, for which scalable approximations exist. This alleviates the computational burden of sampling possible experimental outcomes in high-dimensions. We employ this framework in order to recommend interventional sequences. In this context, we extend the CTBN model to conditional CTBNs in order to incorporate interventions. We demonstrate the performance of our criterion on synthetic and real-world data.

Performing reliable Bayesian inference on a big data scale is becoming a keystone in the modern era of machine learning. A workhorse class of methods to achieve this task are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and their design to handle distributed datasets has been the subject of many works. However, existing methods are not completely either reliable or computationally efficient. In this paper, we propose to fill this gap in the case where the dataset is partitioned and stored on computing nodes within a cluster under a master/slaves architecture. We derive a user-friendly centralised distributed MCMC algorithm with provable scaling in high-dimensional settings. We illustrate the relevance of the proposed methodology on both synthetic and real data experiments.

Herding is a technique to sequentially generate deterministic samples from a probability distribution. In this work, we propose a continuous herded Gibbs sampler, that combines kernel herding on continuous densities with Gibbs sampling. Our algorithm allows for deterministically sampling from high-dimensional multivariate probability densities, without directly sampling from the joint density. Experiments with Gaussian mixture densities indicate that the L2 error decreases similarly to kernel herding, while the computation time is significantly lower, i.e., linear in the number of dimensions.

Adoption of deep neural networks in fields such as economics or finance has been constrained by the lack of interpretability of model outcomes. This paper proposes a generative neural network architecture -- the parameter encoder neural network (PENN) -- capable of estimating local posterior distributions for the parameters of a regression model. The parameters fully explain predictions in terms of the inputs and permit visualization, interpretation and inference in the presence of complex heterogeneous effects and feature dependencies. The use of Bayesian inference techniques offers an intuitive mechanism to regularize local parameter estimates towards a stable solution, and to reduce noise-fitting in settings of limited data availability. The proposed neural network is particularly well-suited to applications in economics and finance, where parameter inference plays an important role. An application to an asset pricing problem demonstrates how the PENN can be used to explore nonlinear risk dynamics in financial markets, and to compare empirical nonlinear effects to behavior posited by financial theory.

The community detection problem requires to cluster the nodes of a network into a small number of well-connected "communities". There has been substantial recent progress in characterizing the fundamental statistical limits of community detection under simple stochastic block models. However, in real-world applications, the network structure is typically dynamic, with nodes that join over time. In this setting, we would like a detection algorithm to perform only a limited number of updates at each node arrival. While standard voting approaches satisfy this constraint, it is unclear whether they exploit the network information optimally. We introduce a simple model for networks growing over time which we refer to as streaming stochastic block model (StSBM). Within this model, we prove that voting algorithms have fundamental limitations. We also develop a streaming belief-propagation (StreamBP) approach, for which we prove optimality in certain regimes. We validate our theoretical findings on synthetic and real data.

Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) is a powerful framework for attaining sparsity in probabilistic models. Herein, we propose a coordinate ascent algorithm for SBL termed Relevance Matching Pursuit (RMP) and show that, as its noise variance parameter goes to zero, RMP exhibits a surprising connection to Stepwise Regression. Further, we derive novel guarantees for Stepwise Regression algorithms, which also shed light on RMP. Our guarantees for Forward Regression improve on deterministic and probabilistic results for Orthogonal Matching Pursuit with noise. Our analysis of Backward Regression on determined systems culminates in a bound on the residual of the optimal solution to the subset selection problem that, if satisfied, guarantees the optimality of the result. To our knowledge, this bound is the first that can be computed in polynomial time and depends chiefly on the smallest singular value of the matrix. We report numerical experiments using a variety of feature selection algorithms. Notably, RMP and its limiting variant are both efficient and maintain strong performance with correlated features.

We study a social learning model in which agents iteratively update their beliefs about the true state of the world using private signals and the beliefs of other agents in a non-Bayesian manner. Some agents are stubborn, meaning they attempt to convince others of an erroneous true state (modeling fake news). We show that while agents learn the true state on short timescales, they "forget" it and believe the erroneous state to be true on longer timescales. Using these results, we devise strategies for seeding stubborn agents so as to disrupt learning, which outperform intuitive heuristics and give novel insights regarding vulnerabilities in social learning.

Effectively modeling phenomena present in highly nonlinear dynamical systems whilst also accurately quantifying uncertainty is a challenging task, which often requires problem-specific techniques. We present a novel, domain-agnostic approach to tackling this problem, using compositions of physics-informed random features, derived from ordinary differential equations. The architecture of our model leverages recent advances in approximate inference for deep Gaussian processes, such as layer-wise weight-space approximations which allow us to incorporate random Fourier features, and stochastic variational inference for approximate Bayesian inference. We provide evidence that our model is capable of capturing highly nonlinear behaviour in real-world multivariate time series data. In addition, we find that our approach achieves comparable performance to a number of other probabilistic models on benchmark regression tasks.

In this paper, we propose a density estimation algorithm called \textit{Gradient Boosting Histogram Transform} (GBHT), where we adopt the \textit{Negative Log Likelihood} as the loss function to make the boosting procedure available for the unsupervised tasks. From a learning theory viewpoint, we first prove fast convergence rates for GBHT with the smoothness assumption that the underlying density function lies in the space $C^{0,\alpha}$. Then when the target density function lies in spaces $C^{1,\alpha}$, we present an upper bound for GBHT which is smaller than the lower bound of its corresponding base learner, in the sense of convergence rates. To the best of our knowledge, we make the first attempt to theoretically explain why boosting can enhance the performance of its base learners for density estimation problems. In experiments, we not only conduct performance comparisons with the widely used KDE, but also apply GBHT to anomaly detection to showcase a further application of GBHT.