Uncertainty
On fine-tuning of Autoencoders for Fuzzy rule classifiers
Sevakula, Rahul Kumar, Verma, Nishchal Kumar, Ishibuchi, Hisao
Recent discoveries in Deep Neural Networks are allowing researchers to tackle some very complex problems such as image classification and audio classification, with improved theoretical and empirical justifications. This paper presents a novel scheme to incorporate the use of autoencoders in Fuzzy rule classifiers (FRC). Autoencoders when stacked can learn the complex non-linear relationships amongst data, and the proposed framework built towards FRC can allow users to input expert knowledge to the system. This paper further introduces four novel fine-tuning strategies for autoencoders to improve the FRC's classification and rule reduction performance. The proposed framework has been tested across five real-world benchmark datasets. Elaborate comparisons with over 15 previous studies, and across 10-fold cross validation performance, suggest that the proposed methods are capable of building FRCs which can provide state of the art accuracies.
Would a robot trust you? Developmental robotics model of trust and theory of mind
The technological revolution taking place in the fields of robotics and artificial intelligence seems to indicate a future shift in our human-centred social paradigm towards a greater inclusion of artificial cognitive agents in our everyday environments. This means that collaborative scenarios between humans and robots will become more frequent and will have a deeper impact on everyday life. In this setting, research regarding trust in human–robot interactions (HRI) assumes a major importance in order to ensure the highest quality of the interaction itself, as trust directly affects the willingness of people to accept information produced by a robot and to cooperate with it. Many studies have already explored trust that humans give to robots and how this can be enhanced by tuning both the design and the behaviour of the machine, but not so much research has focused on the opposite scenario, that is the trust that artificial agents can assign to people. Despite this, the latter is a critical factor in joint tasks where humans and robots depend on each other's effort to achieve a shared goal: whereas a robot can fail, so can a person. For an artificial agent to know when to trust or distrust somebody and adapt its plans to this prediction can make all the difference in the success or failure of the task. Our work is centred on the design and development of an artificial cognitive architecture for a humanoid autonomous robot that incorporates trust, theory of mind (ToM) and episodic memory, as we believe these are the three key factors for the purpose of estimating the trustworthiness of others. We have tested our architecture on an established developmental psychology experiment [1] and the results we obtained confirm that our approach successfully models trust mechanisms and dynamics in cognitive robots. Trust is a fundamental, unavoidable component of social interactions that can be defined as the willingness of a party (the trustor) to rely on the actions of another party (the trustee), with the former having no control over the latter [2].
More Causes Less Effect: Destructive Interference in Decision Making
Basieva, Irina, Pandey, Vijitashwa, Khrennikova, Polina
We present a new experiment demonstrating destructive interference in customers' estimates of conditional probabilities of product failure. We take the perspective of a manufacturer of consumer products, and consider two situations of cause and effect. Whereas individually the effect of the causes is similar, it is observed that when combined, the two causes produce the opposite effect. Such negative interference of two or more reasons may be exploited for better modeling the cognitive processes taking place in the customers' mind. Doing so can enhance the likelihood that a manufacturer will be able to design a better product, or a feature within it. Quantum probability has been used to explain some commonly observed deviations such as question order and response replicability effects, as well as in explaining paradoxes such as violations of the sure-thing principle, and Machina and Ellsberg paradoxes. In this work, we present results from a survey conducted regarding the effect of multiple observed symptoms on the drivability of a vehicle. We demonstrate that the set of responses cannot be explained using classical probability, but quantum formulation easily models it, as it allows for both positive and negative "interference" between events. Since quantum formulism also accounts for classical probability's predictions, it serves as a richer paradigm for modeling decision making behavior in engineering design and behavioral economics.
Low-rank Characteristic Tensor Density Estimation Part II: Compression and Latent Density Estimation
Amiridi, Magda, Kargas, Nikos, Sidiropoulos, Nicholas D.
Learning generative probabilistic models is a core problem in machine learning, which presents significant challenges due to the curse of dimensionality. This paper proposes a joint dimensionality reduction and non-parametric density estimation framework, using a novel estimator that can explicitly capture the underlying distribution of appropriate reduced-dimension representations of the input data. The idea is to jointly design a nonlinear dimensionality reducing auto-encoder to model the training data in terms of a parsimonious set of latent random variables, and learn a canonical low-rank tensor model of the joint distribution of the latent variables in the Fourier domain. The proposed latent density model is non-parametric and universal, as opposed to the predefined prior that is assumed in variational auto-encoders. Joint optimization of the auto-encoder and the latent density estimator is pursued via a formulation which learns both by minimizing a combination of the negative log-likelihood in the latent domain and the auto-encoder reconstruction loss. We demonstrate that the proposed model achieves very promising results on toy, tabular, and image datasets on regression tasks, sampling, and anomaly detection.
Improving Label Quality by Jointly Modeling Items and Annotators
Weerasooriya, Tharindu Cyril, Ororbia, Alexander G., Homan, Christopher M.
We propose a fully Bayesian framework for learning ground truth labels from noisy annotators. Our framework ensures scalability by factoring a generative, Bayesian soft clustering model over label distributions into the classic David and Skene joint annotator-data model. Earlier research along these lines has neither fully incorporated label distributions nor explored clustering by annotators only or data only. Our framework incorporates all of these properties as: (1) a graphical model designed to provide better ground truth estimates of annotator responses as input to \emph{any} black box supervised learning algorithm, and (2) a standalone neural model whose internal structure captures many of the properties of the graphical model. We conduct supervised learning experiments using both models and compare them to the performance of one baseline and a state-of-the-art model.
A Declarative Goal-oriented Framework for Smart Environments with LPaaS
Bisicchia, Giuseppe, Forti, Stefano, Brogi, Antonio
Smart environments powered by the Internet of Things aim at improving our daily lives by automatically tuning ambient parameters (e.g. temperature, interior light) and by achieving energy savings through self-managing cyber-physical systems. Commercial solutions, however, only permit setting simple target goals on those parameters and do not consider mediating conflicting goals among different users and/or system administrators, and feature limited compatibility across different IoT verticals. In this article, we propose a declarative framework to represent smart environments, user-set goals and customisable mediation policies to reconcile contrasting goals encompassing multiple IoT systems. An open-source Prolog prototype of the framework is showcased over two lifelike motivating examples.
Nonparametric Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Mak, Carol, Zaiser, Fabian, Ong, Luke
Probabilistic programming uses programs to express generative models whose posterior probability is then computed by built-in inference engines. A challenging goal is to develop general purpose inference algorithms that work out-of-the-box for arbitrary programs in a universal probabilistic programming language (PPL). The densities defined by such programs, which may use stochastic branching and recursion, are (in general) nonparametric, in the sense that they correspond to models on an infinite-dimensional parameter space. However standard inference algorithms, such as the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm, target distributions with a fixed number of parameters. This paper introduces the Nonparametric Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (NP-HMC) algorithm which generalises HMC to nonparametric models. Inputs to NP-HMC are a new class of measurable functions called "tree representable", which serve as a language-independent representation of the density functions of probabilistic programs in a universal PPL. We provide a correctness proof of NP-HMC, and empirically demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing approaches on several nonparametric examples.
Combining Pseudo-Point and State Space Approximations for Sum-Separable Gaussian Processes
Tebbutt, Will, Solin, Arno, Turner, Richard E.
Gaussian processes (GPs) are important probabilistic tools for inference and learning in spatio-temporal modelling problems such as those in climate science and epidemiology. However, existing GP approximations do not simultaneously support large numbers of off-the-grid spatial data-points and long time-series which is a hallmark of many applications. Pseudo-point approximations, one of the gold-standard methods for scaling GPs to large data sets, are well suited for handling off-the-grid spatial data. However, they cannot handle long temporal observation horizons effectively reverting to cubic computational scaling in the time dimension. State space GP approximations are well suited to handling temporal data, if the temporal GP prior admits a Markov form, leading to linear complexity in the number of temporal observations, but have a cubic spatial cost and cannot handle off-the-grid spatial data. In this work we show that there is a simple and elegant way to combine pseudo-point methods with the state space GP approximation framework to get the best of both worlds. The approach hinges on a surprising conditional independence property which applies to space--time separable GPs. We demonstrate empirically that the combined approach is more scalable and applicable to a greater range of spatio-temporal problems than either method on its own.
Being a Bit Frequentist Improves Bayesian Neural Networks
Kristiadi, Agustinus, Hein, Matthias, Hennig, Philipp
Despite their compelling theoretical properties, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) tend to perform worse than frequentist methods in classification-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks such as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and dataset-shift robustness. In this work, based on empirical findings in prior works, we hypothesize that this issue is due to the avoidance of Bayesian methods in the so-called "OOD training" -- a family of techniques for incorporating OOD data during training process, which has since been an integral part of state-of-the-art frequentist UQ methods. To validate this, we treat OOD data as a first-class citizen in BNN training by exploring four different ways of incorporating OOD data in Bayesian inference. We show in extensive experiments that OOD-trained BNNs are competitive to, if not better than recent frequentist baselines. This work thus provides strong baselines for future work in both Bayesian and frequentist UQ.
Leveraging Language to Learn Program Abstractions and Search Heuristics
Wong, Catherine, Ellis, Kevin, Tenenbaum, Joshua B., Andreas, Jacob
Inductive program synthesis, or inferring programs from examples of desired behavior, offers a general paradigm for building interpretable, robust, and generalizable machine learning systems. Effective program synthesis depends on two key ingredients: a strong library of functions from which to build programs, and an efficient search strategy for finding programs that solve a given task. We introduce LAPS (Language for Abstraction and Program Search), a technique for using natural language annotations to guide joint learning of libraries and neurally-guided search models for synthesis. When integrated into a state-of-the-art library learning system (DreamCoder), LAPS produces higher-quality libraries and improves search efficiency and generalization on three domains -- string editing, image composition, and abstract reasoning about scenes -- even when no natural language hints are available at test time.