Kalisch and B\"{u}hlmann (2007) showed that for linear Gaussian models, under the Causal Markov Assumption, the Strong Causal Faithfulness Assumption, and the assumption of causal sufficiency, the PC algorithm is a uniformly consistent estimator of the Markov Equivalence Class of the true causal DAG for linear Gaussian models; it follows from this that for the identifiable causal effects in the Markov Equivalence Class, there are uniformly consistent estimators of causal effects as well. The $k$-Triangle-Faithfulness Assumption is a strictly weaker assumption that avoids some implausible implications of the Strong Causal Faithfulness Assumption and also allows for uniformly consistent estimates of Markov Equivalence Classes (in a weakened sense), and of identifiable causal effects. However, both of these assumptions are restricted to linear Gaussian models. We propose the Generalized $k$-Triangle Faithfulness, which can be applied to any smooth distribution. In addition, under the Generalized $k$-Triangle Faithfulness Assumption, we describe the Edge Estimation Algorithm that provides uniformly consistent estimates of causal effects in some cases (and otherwise outputs "can't tell"), and the \textit{Very Conservative }$SGS$ Algorithm that (in a slightly weaker sense) is a uniformly consistent estimator of the Markov equivalence class of the true DAG.

This paper considers two-player zero-sum finite-horizon Markov games with simultaneous moves. The study focuses on the challenging settings where the value function or the model is parameterized by general function classes. Provably efficient algorithms for both decoupled and {coordinated} settings are developed. In the {decoupled} setting where the agent controls a single player and plays against an arbitrary opponent, we propose a new model-free algorithm. The sample complexity is governed by the Minimax Eluder dimension -- a new dimension of the function class in Markov games. As a special case, this method improves the state-of-the-art algorithm by a $\sqrt{d}$ factor in the regret when the reward function and transition kernel are parameterized with $d$-dimensional linear features. In the {coordinated} setting where both players are controlled by the agent, we propose a model-based algorithm and a model-free algorithm. In the model-based algorithm, we prove that sample complexity can be bounded by a generalization of Witness rank to Markov games. The model-free algorithm enjoys a $\sqrt{K}$-regret upper bound where $K$ is the number of episodes. Our algorithms are based on new techniques of alternate optimism.

Estimation of probability density function from samples is one of the central problems in statistics and machine learning. Modern neural network-based models can learn high dimensional distributions but have problems with hyperparameter selection and are often prone to instabilities during training and inference. We propose a new efficient tensor train-based model for density estimation (TTDE). Such density parametrization allows exact sampling, calculation of cumulative and marginal density functions, and partition function. It also has very intuitive hyperparameters. We develop an efficient non-adversarial training procedure for TTDE based on the Riemannian optimization. Experimental results demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed method in density estimation and sampling tasks, while TTDE significantly outperforms competitors in training speed.

Information-based Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms have achieved state-of-the-art performance in optimizing a black-box objective function. However, they usually require several approximations or simplifying assumptions (without clearly understanding their effects on the BO performance) and/or their generalization to batch BO is computationally unwieldy, especially with an increasing batch size. To alleviate these issues, this paper presents a novel trusted-maximizers entropy search (TES) acquisition function: It measures how much an input query contributes to the information gain on the maximizer over a finite set of trusted maximizers, i.e., inputs optimizing functions that are sampled from the Gaussian process posterior belief of the objective function. Evaluating TES requires either only a stochastic approximation with sampling or a deterministic approximation with expectation propagation, both of which are investigated and empirically evaluated using synthetic benchmark objective functions and real-world optimization problems, e.g., hyperparameter tuning of a convolutional neural network and synthesizing 'physically realizable' faces to fool a black-box face recognition system. Though TES can naturally be generalized to a batch variant with either approximation, the latter is amenable to be scaled to a much larger batch size in our experiments.

Particle-based approximate Bayesian inference approaches such as Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) combine the flexibility and convergence guarantees of sampling methods with the computational benefits of variational inference. In practice, SVGD relies on the choice of an appropriate kernel function, which impacts its ability to model the target distribution -- a challenging problem with only heuristic solutions. We propose Neural Variational Gradient Descent (NVGD), which is based on parameterizing the witness function of the Stein discrepancy by a deep neural network whose parameters are learned in parallel to the inference, mitigating the necessity to make any kernel choices whatsoever. We empirically evaluate our method on popular synthetic inference problems, real-world Bayesian linear regression, and Bayesian neural network inference.

We propose a models with lower latency and power consumption while Bayesian approach to trend detection in which also ensuring privacy. However, as there is no access to the probability of a keyword being trendy, given actual data from participating devices, it poses a problem a dataset, is computed via Bayes' Theorem; the for the analysis of federated learning models. Federated analytics probability of a dataset, given that a keyword (Ramage & Mazzocchi) is a practice introduced to is trendy, is computed through secure aggregation solve this problem. It uses the same infrastructure as federated of such conditional probabilities over local learning to aggregate the computed metric by each datasets of users. We propose a protocol, named participating device using local data and shared models. SAFE, for Bayesian federated analytics that offers Federated analytics has already gone beyond just measuring sufficient privacy for production-grade use the quality metric to computing descriptive statistics cases and reduces the computational burden of (Ramage & Mazzocchi; Zhu et al., 2020), generating synthetic users and an aggregator. We illustrate this approach data (Xin et al., 2020; Chaulwar, 2020) and learning with a trend detection experiment and discuss new insights (Chen et al., 2019). These methods are generally how this approach could be extended further combined with secure aggregation protocols to ensure to make it production-ready.

We perform approximate inference in state-space models that allow for nonlinear higher-order Markov chains in latent space. The conditional independencies of the generative model enable us to parameterize only an inference model, which learns to estimate clean states in a self-supervised manner using maximum likelihood. First, we propose a recurrent method that is trained directly on noisy observations. Afterward, we cast the model such that the optimization problem leads to an update scheme that backpropagates through a recursion similar to the classical Kalman filter and smoother. In scientific applications, domain knowledge can give a linear approximation of the latent transition maps. We can easily incorporate this knowledge into our model, leading to a hybrid inference approach. In contrast to other methods, experiments show that the hybrid method makes the inferred latent states physically more interpretable and accurate, especially in low-data regimes. Furthermore, we do not rely on an additional parameterization of the generative model or supervision via uncorrupted observations or ground truth latent states. Despite our model's simplicity, we obtain competitive results on the chaotic Lorenz system compared to a fully supervised approach and outperform a method based on variational inference.

Node features and structural information of a graph are both crucial for semi-supervised node classification problems. A variety of graph neural network (GNN) based approaches have been proposed to tackle these problems, which typically determine output labels through feature aggregation. This can be problematic, as it implies conditional independence of output nodes given hidden representations, despite their direct connections in the graph. To learn the direct influence among output nodes in a graph, we propose the Explicit Pairwise Factorized Graph Neural Network (EPFGNN), which models the whole graph as a partially observed Markov Random Field. It contains explicit pairwise factors to model output-output relations and uses a GNN backbone to model input-output relations. To balance model complexity and expressivity, the pairwise factors have a shared component and a separate scaling coefficient for each edge. We apply the EM algorithm to train our model, and utilize a star-shaped piecewise likelihood for the tractable surrogate objective. We conduct experiments on various datasets, which shows that our model can effectively improve the performance for semi-supervised node classification on graphs.

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear actions for any subset of covariates and under any Bayesian LMM. Crucially, these actions inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian LMM. Rather than selecting a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, we collect the acceptable family of subsets that nearly match the predictive ability of the "best" subset. The acceptable family is summarized by its smallest member and key variable importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and in both cases demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.

We consider the problem of efficiently inferring interventional distributions in a causal Bayesian network from a finite number of observations. Let $\mathcal{P}$ be a causal model on a set $\mathbf{V}$ of observable variables on a given causal graph $G$. For sets $\mathbf{X},\mathbf{Y}\subseteq \mathbf{V}$, and setting ${\bf x}$ to $\mathbf{X}$, let $P_{\bf x}(\mathbf{Y})$ denote the interventional distribution on $\mathbf{Y}$ with respect to an intervention ${\bf x}$ to variables ${\bf x}$. Shpitser and Pearl (AAAI 2006), building on the work of Tian and Pearl (AAAI 2001), gave an exact characterization of the class of causal graphs for which the interventional distribution $P_{\bf x}({\mathbf{Y}})$ can be uniquely determined. We give the first efficient version of the Shpitser-Pearl algorithm. In particular, under natural assumptions, we give a polynomial-time algorithm that on input a causal graph $G$ on observable variables $\mathbf{V}$, a setting ${\bf x}$ of a set $\mathbf{X} \subseteq \mathbf{V}$ of bounded size, outputs succinct descriptions of both an evaluator and a generator for a distribution $\hat{P}$ that is $\varepsilon$-close (in total variation distance) to $P_{\bf x}({\mathbf{Y}})$ where $Y=\mathbf{V}\setminus \mathbf{X}$, if $P_{\bf x}(\mathbf{Y})$ is identifiable. We also show that when $\mathbf{Y}$ is an arbitrary set, there is no efficient algorithm that outputs an evaluator of a distribution that is $\varepsilon$-close to $P_{\bf x}({\mathbf{Y}})$ unless all problems that have statistical zero-knowledge proofs, including the Graph Isomorphism problem, have efficient randomized algorithms.