We propose a family of First Hitting Diffusion Models (FHDM), deep generative models that generate data with a diffusion process that terminates at a random first hitting time. This yields an extension of the standard fixed-time diffusion models that terminate at a pre-specified deterministic time. Although standard diffusion models are designed for continuous unconstrained data, FHDM is naturally designed to learn distributions on continuous as well as a range of discrete and structure domains. Moreover, FHDM enables instance-dependent terminate time and accelerates the diffusion process to sample higher quality data with fewer diffusion steps. Technically, we train FHDM by maximum likelihood estimation on diffusion trajectories augmented from observed data with conditional first hitting processes (i.e., bridge) derived based on Doob's $h$-transform, deviating from the commonly used time-reversal mechanism. We apply FHDM to generate data in various domains such as point cloud (general continuous distribution), climate and geographical events on earth (continuous distribution on the sphere), unweighted graphs (distribution of binary matrices), and segmentation maps of 2D images (high-dimensional categorical distribution). We observe considerable improvement compared with the state-of-the-art approaches in both quality and speed.

The discovery of novel inhibitor molecules for emerging drug-target proteins is widely acknowledged as a challenging inverse design problem: Exhaustive exploration of the vast chemical search space is impractical, especially when the target structure or active molecules are unknown. Here we validate experimentally the broad utility of a deep generative framework trained at-scale on protein sequences, small molecules, and their mutual interactions -- that is unbiased toward any specific target. As demonstrators, we consider two dissimilar and relevant SARS-CoV-2 targets: the main protease and the spike protein (receptor binding domain, RBD). To perform target-aware design of novel inhibitor molecules, a protein sequence-conditioned sampling on the generative foundation model is performed. Despite using only the target sequence information, and without performing any target-specific adaptation of the generative model, micromolar-level inhibition was observed in in vitro experiments for two candidates out of only four synthesized for each target. The most potent spike RBD inhibitor also exhibited activity against several variants in live virus neutralization assays. These results therefore establish that a single, broadly deployable generative foundation model for accelerated hit discovery is effective and efficient, even in the most general case where neither target structure nor binder information is available.

The uses of robots are changing from static environments in factories to encompass novel concepts such as Human-Robot Collaboration in unstructured settings. Pre-programming all the functionalities for robots becomes impractical, and hence, robots need to learn how to react to new events autonomously, just like humans. However, humans, unlike machines, are naturally skilled in responding to unexpected circumstances based on either experiences or observations. Hence, embedding such anthropoid behaviours into robots entails the development of neuro-cognitive models that emulate motor skills under a robot learning paradigm. Effective encoding of these skills is bound to the proper choice of tools and techniques. This paper studies different motion and behaviour learning methods ranging from Movement Primitives (MP) to Experience Abstraction (EA), applied to different robotic tasks. These methods are scrutinized and then experimentally benchmarked by reconstructing a standard pick-n-place task. Apart from providing a standard guideline for the selection of strategies and algorithms, this paper aims to draw a perspectives on their possible extensions and improvements

Nonlinear dynamics are ubiquitous in science and engineering applications, but the physics of most complex systems is far from being fully understood. Discovering interpretable governing equations from measurement data can help us understand and predict the behavior of complex dynamic systems. Although extensive work has recently been done in this field, robustly distilling explicit model forms from very sparse data with considerable noise remains intractable. Moreover, quantifying and propagating the uncertainty of the identified system from noisy data is challenging, and relevant literature is still limited. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Bayesian spline learning framework to identify parsimonious governing equations of nonlinear (spatio)temporal dynamics from sparse, noisy data with quantified uncertainty. The proposed method utilizes spline basis to handle the data scarcity and measurement noise, upon which a group of derivatives can be accurately computed to form a library of candidate model terms. The equation residuals are used to inform the spline learning in a Bayesian manner, where approximate Bayesian uncertainty calibration techniques are employed to approximate posterior distributions of the trainable parameters. To promote the sparsity, an iterative sequential-threshold Bayesian learning approach is developed, using the alternative direction optimization strategy to systematically approximate L0 sparsity constraints. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on multiple nonlinear dynamical systems governed by canonical ordinary and partial differential equations, and the merit/superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparison with state-of-the-art methods.

Generative flow networks (GFNs) are a class of models for sequential sampling of composite objects, which approximate a target distribution that is defined in terms of an energy function or a reward. GFNs are typically trained using a flow matching or trajectory balance objective, which matches forward and backward transition models over trajectories. In this work, we define variational objectives for GFNs in terms of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergences between the forward and backward distribution. We show that variational inference in GFNs is equivalent to minimizing the trajectory balance objective when sampling trajectories from the forward model. We generalize this approach by optimizing a convex combination of the reverse- and forward KL divergence. This insight suggests variational inference methods can serve as a means to define a more general family of objectives for training generative flow networks, for example by incorporating control variates, which are commonly used in variational inference, to reduce the variance of the gradients of the trajectory balance objective. We evaluate our findings and the performance of the proposed variational objective numerically by comparing it to the trajectory balance objective on two synthetic tasks.

We consider Bayesian inference from multiple time series described by a common state-space model (SSM) structure, but where different subsets of parameters are shared between different submodels. An important example is disease-dynamics, where parameters can be either disease or location specific. Parameter inference in these models can be improved by systematically aggregating information from the different time series, most notably for short series. Particle Gibbs (PG) samplers are an efficient class of algorithms for inference in SSMs, in particular when conjugacy can be exploited to marginalize out model parameters from the state update. We present two different PG samplers that marginalize static model parameters on-the-fly: one that updates one model at a time conditioned on the datasets for the other models, and one that concurrently updates all models by stacking them into a high-dimensional SSM. The distinctive features of each sampler make them suitable for different modelling contexts. We provide insights on when each sampler should be used and show that they can be combined to form an efficient PG sampler for a model with strong dependencies between states and parameters. The performance is illustrated on two linear-Gaussian examples and on a real-world example on the spread of mosquito-borne diseases.

Regime shifts in high-dimensional time series arise naturally in many applications, from neuroimaging to finance. This problem has received considerable attention in low-dimensional settings, with both Bayesian and frequentist methods used extensively for parameter estimation. The EM algorithm is a particularly popular strategy for parameter estimation in low-dimensional settings, although the statistical properties of the resulting estimates have not been well understood. Furthermore, its extension to high-dimensional time series has proved challenging. To overcome these challenges, in this paper we propose an approximate EM algorithm for Markov-switching VAR models that leads to efficient computation and also facilitates the investigation of asymptotic properties of the resulting parameter estimates. We establish the consistency of the proposed EM algorithm in high dimensions and investigate its performance via simulation studies.

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at the first stage, and then a flexible model is trained to predict the variables of interest. In contrast to those proposed earlier, the procedure described in this paper makes it possible to train estimators for hidden states by concentrating only on certain characteristics of the marginal posterior distributions and introducing inductive bias. Illustrations using the examples of the stochastic volatility model, nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and seasonal adjustment procedure with breaks in seasonality show that the algorithm has sufficient accuracy for practical use. Moreover, after pretraining, which takes several hours, finding the posterior distribution for any dataset takes from hundredths to tenths of a second.

Many high-dimensional statistical inference problems are believed to possess inherent computational hardness. Various frameworks have been proposed to give rigorous evidence for such hardness, including lower bounds against restricted models of computation (such as low-degree functions), as well as methods rooted in statistical physics that are based on free energy landscapes. This paper aims to make a rigorous connection between the seemingly different low-degree and free-energy based approaches. We define a free-energy based criterion for hardness and formally connect it to the well-established notion of low-degree hardness for a broad class of statistical problems, namely all Gaussian additive models and certain models with a sparse planted signal. By leveraging these rigorous connections we are able to: establish that for Gaussian additive models the "algebraic" notion of low-degree hardness implies failure of "geometric" local MCMC algorithms, and provide new low-degree lower bounds for sparse linear regression which seem difficult to prove directly. These results provide both conceptual insights into the connections between different notions of hardness, as well as concrete technical tools such as new methods for proving low-degree lower bounds.

Most PAC-Bayesian bounds hold in the batch learning setting where data is collected at once, prior to inference or prediction. This somewhat departs from many contemporary learning problems where data streams are collected and the algorithms must dynamically adjust. We prove new PAC-Bayesian bounds in this online learning framework, leveraging an updated definition of regret, and we revisit classical PAC-Bayesian results with a batch-to-online conversion, extending their remit to the case of dependent data. Our results hold for bounded losses, potentially \emph{non-convex}, paving the way to promising developments in online learning.