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 Uncertainty


Unifying Generative Models with GFlowNets and Beyond

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There are many frameworks for deep generative modeling, each often presented with their own specific training algorithms and inference methods. Here, we demonstrate the connections between existing deep generative models and the recently introduced GFlowNet framework, a probabilistic inference machine which treats sampling as a decision-making process. This analysis sheds light on their overlapping traits and provides a unifying viewpoint through the lens of learning with Markovian trajectories. Our framework provides a means for unifying training and inference algorithms, and provides a route to shine a unifying light over many generative models. Beyond this, we provide a practical and experimentally verified recipe for improving generative modeling with insights from the GFlowNet perspective.


Thompson Sampling with Diffusion Generative Prior

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm is designed to carefully balance between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learner's interaction with the environment. To capture realistic bandit scenarios, we also propose a novel diffusion model training procedure that trains even from incomplete and/or noisy data, which could be of independent interest. Finally, our extensive experimental evaluations clearly demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.


Fair Decision-making Under Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There has been concern within the artificial intelligence (AI) community and the broader society regarding the potential lack of fairness of AI-based decision-making systems. Surprisingly, there is little work quantifying and guaranteeing fairness in the presence of uncertainty which is prevalent in many socially sensitive applications, ranging from marketing analytics to actuarial analysis and recidivism prediction instruments. To this end, we study a longitudinal censored learning problem subject to fairness constraints, where we require that algorithmic decisions made do not affect certain individuals or social groups negatively in the presence of uncertainty on class label due to censorship. We argue that this formulation has a broader applicability to practical scenarios concerning fairness. We show how the newly devised fairness notions involving censored information and the general framework for fair predictions in the presence of censorship allow us to measure and mitigate discrimination under uncertainty that bridges the gap with real-world applications. Empirical evaluations on real-world discriminated datasets with censorship demonstrate the practicality of our approach.


Nearly Minimax Optimal Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study reinforcement learning with linear function approximation where the transition probability and reward functions are linear with respect to a feature mapping $\boldsymbol{\phi}(s,a)$. Specifically, we consider the episodic inhomogeneous linear Markov Decision Process (MDP), and propose a novel computation-efficient algorithm, LSVI-UCB$^+$, which achieves an $\widetilde{O}(Hd\sqrt{T})$ regret bound where $H$ is the episode length, $d$ is the feature dimension, and $T$ is the number of steps. LSVI-UCB$^+$ builds on weighted ridge regression and upper confidence value iteration with a Bernstein-type exploration bonus. Our statistical results are obtained with novel analytical tools, including a new Bernstein self-normalized bound with conservatism on elliptical potentials, and refined analysis of the correction term. This is a minimax optimal algorithm for linear MDPs up to logarithmic factors, which closes the $\sqrt{Hd}$ gap between the upper bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{H^3d^3T})$ in (Jin et al., 2020) and lower bound of $\Omega(Hd\sqrt{T})$ for linear MDPs.


Logic-Based Explainability in Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The last decade witnessed an ever-increasing stream of successes in Machine Learning (ML). These successes offer clear evidence that ML is bound to become pervasive in a wide range of practical uses, including many that directly affect humans. Unfortunately, the operation of the most successful ML models is incomprehensible for human decision makers. As a result, the use of ML models, especially in high-risk and safety-critical settings is not without concern. In recent years, there have been efforts on devising approaches for explaining ML models. Most of these efforts have focused on so-called model-agnostic approaches. However, all model-agnostic and related approaches offer no guarantees of rigor, hence being referred to as non-formal. For example, such non-formal explanations can be consistent with different predictions, which renders them useless in practice. This paper overviews the ongoing research efforts on computing rigorous model-based explanations of ML models; these being referred to as formal explanations. These efforts encompass a variety of topics, that include the actual definitions of explanations, the characterization of the complexity of computing explanations, the currently best logical encodings for reasoning about different ML models, and also how to make explanations interpretable for human decision makers, among others.


G-Rep: Gaussian Representation for Arbitrary-Oriented Object Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Typical representations for arbitrary-oriented object detection tasks include oriented bounding box (OBB), quadrilateral bounding box (QBB), and point set (PointSet). Each representation encounters problems that correspond to its characteristics, such as the boundary discontinuity, square-like problem, representation ambiguity, and isolated points, which lead to inaccurate detection. Although many effective strategies have been proposed for various representations, there is still no unified solution. Current detection methods based on Gaussian modeling have demonstrated the possibility of breaking this dilemma; however, they remain limited to OBB. To go further, in this paper, we propose a unified Gaussian representation called G-Rep to construct Gaussian distributions for OBB, QBB, and PointSet, which achieves a unified solution to various representations and problems. Specifically, PointSet or QBB-based object representations are converted into Gaussian distributions, and their parameters are optimized using the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm. Then, three optional Gaussian metrics are explored to optimize the regression loss of the detector because of their excellent parameter optimization mechanisms. Furthermore, we also use Gaussian metrics for sampling to align label assignment and regression loss. Experimental results on several public available datasets, such as DOTA, HRSC2016, UCAS-AOD, and ICDAR2015, show the excellent performance of the proposed method for arbitrary-oriented object detection.


Digital Twin-Based Multiple Access Optimization and Monitoring via Model-Driven Bayesian Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Commonly adopted in the manufacturing and aerospace sectors, digital twin (DT) platforms are increasingly seen as a promising paradigm to control and monitor software-based, "open", communication systems, which play the role of the physical twin (PT). In the general framework presented in this work, the DT builds a Bayesian model of the communication system, which is leveraged to enable core DT functionalities such as control via multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) and monitoring of the PT for anomaly detection. We specifically investigate the application of the proposed framework to a simple case-study system encompassing multiple sensing devices that report to a common receiver. The Bayesian model trained at the DT has the key advantage of capturing epistemic uncertainty regarding the communication system, e.g., regarding current traffic conditions, which arise from limited PT-to-DT data transfer. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed Bayesian framework as compared to standard frequentist model-based solutions.


Fast Bayesian Inference with Batch Bayesian Quadrature via Kernel Recombination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Calculation of Bayesian posteriors and model evidences typically requires numerical integration. Bayesian quadrature (BQ), a surrogate-model-based approach to numerical integration, is capable of superb sample efficiency, but its lack of parallelisation has hindered its practical applications. In this work, we propose a parallelised (batch) BQ method, employing techniques from kernel quadrature, that possesses an empirically exponential convergence rate. Additionally, just as with Nested Sampling, our method permits simultaneous inference of both posteriors and model evidence. Samples from our BQ surrogate model are re-selected to give a sparse set of samples, via a kernel recombination algorithm, requiring negligible additional time to increase the batch size. Empirically, we find that our approach significantly outperforms the sampling efficiency of both state-of-the-art BQ techniques and Nested Sampling in various real-world datasets, including lithium-ion battery analytics.


Goal-Image Conditioned Dynamic Cable Manipulation through Bayesian Inference and Multi-Objective Black-Box Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To perform dynamic cable manipulation to realize the configuration specified by a target image, we formulate dynamic cable manipulation as a stochastic forward model. Then, we propose a method to handle uncertainty by maximizing the expectation, which also considers estimation errors of the trained model. To avoid issues like multiple local minima and requirement of differentiability by gradient-based methods, we propose using a black-box optimization (BBO) to optimize joint angles to realize a goal image. Among BBO, we use the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), a type of Bayesian optimization. By incorporating constraints into the TPE, the optimized joint angles are constrained within the range of motion. Since TPE is population-based, it is better able to detect multiple feasible configurations using the estimated inverse model. We evaluated image similarity between the target and cable images captured by executing the robot using optimal transport distance. The results show that the proposed method improves accuracy compared to conventional gradient-based approaches and methods that use deterministic models that do not consider uncertainty.


Distributionally Robust Offline Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Among the reasons hindering reinforcement learning (RL) applications to real-world problems, two factors are critical: limited data and the mismatch between the testing environment (real environment in which the policy is deployed) and the training environment (e.g., a simulator). This paper attempts to address these issues simultaneously with distributionally robust offline RL, where we learn a distributionally robust policy using historical data obtained from the source environment by optimizing against a worst-case perturbation thereof. In particular, we move beyond tabular settings and consider linear function approximation. More specifically, we consider two settings, one where the dataset is well-explored and the other where the dataset has sufficient coverage of the optimal policy. We propose two algorithms~-- one for each of the two settings~-- that achieve error bounds $\tilde{O}(d^{1/2}/N^{1/2})$ and $\tilde{O}(d^{3/2}/N^{1/2})$ respectively, where $d$ is the dimension in the linear function approximation and $N$ is the number of trajectories in the dataset. To the best of our knowledge, they provide the first non-asymptotic results of the sample complexity in this setting. Diverse experiments are conducted to demonstrate our theoretical findings, showing the superiority of our algorithm against the non-robust one.