Uncertainty
G-Rep: Gaussian Representation for Arbitrary-Oriented Object Detection
Hou, Liping, Lu, Ke, Yang, Xue, Li, Yuqiu, Xue, Jian
Typical representations for arbitrary-oriented object detection tasks include oriented bounding box (OBB), quadrilateral bounding box (QBB), and point set (PointSet). Each representation encounters problems that correspond to its characteristics, such as the boundary discontinuity, square-like problem, representation ambiguity, and isolated points, which lead to inaccurate detection. Although many effective strategies have been proposed for various representations, there is still no unified solution. Current detection methods based on Gaussian modeling have demonstrated the possibility of breaking this dilemma; however, they remain limited to OBB. To go further, in this paper, we propose a unified Gaussian representation called G-Rep to construct Gaussian distributions for OBB, QBB, and PointSet, which achieves a unified solution to various representations and problems. Specifically, PointSet or QBB-based object representations are converted into Gaussian distributions, and their parameters are optimized using the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm. Then, three optional Gaussian metrics are explored to optimize the regression loss of the detector because of their excellent parameter optimization mechanisms. Furthermore, we also use Gaussian metrics for sampling to align label assignment and regression loss. Experimental results on several public available datasets, such as DOTA, HRSC2016, UCAS-AOD, and ICDAR2015, show the excellent performance of the proposed method for arbitrary-oriented object detection.
Digital Twin-Based Multiple Access Optimization and Monitoring via Model-Driven Bayesian Learning
Ruah, Clement, Simeone, Osvaldo, Al-Hashimi, Bashir
Commonly adopted in the manufacturing and aerospace sectors, digital twin (DT) platforms are increasingly seen as a promising paradigm to control and monitor software-based, "open", communication systems, which play the role of the physical twin (PT). In the general framework presented in this work, the DT builds a Bayesian model of the communication system, which is leveraged to enable core DT functionalities such as control via multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) and monitoring of the PT for anomaly detection. We specifically investigate the application of the proposed framework to a simple case-study system encompassing multiple sensing devices that report to a common receiver. The Bayesian model trained at the DT has the key advantage of capturing epistemic uncertainty regarding the communication system, e.g., regarding current traffic conditions, which arise from limited PT-to-DT data transfer. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed Bayesian framework as compared to standard frequentist model-based solutions.
Fast Bayesian Inference with Batch Bayesian Quadrature via Kernel Recombination
Adachi, Masaki, Hayakawa, Satoshi, Jรธrgensen, Martin, Oberhauser, Harald, Osborne, Michael A.
Calculation of Bayesian posteriors and model evidences typically requires numerical integration. Bayesian quadrature (BQ), a surrogate-model-based approach to numerical integration, is capable of superb sample efficiency, but its lack of parallelisation has hindered its practical applications. In this work, we propose a parallelised (batch) BQ method, employing techniques from kernel quadrature, that possesses an empirically exponential convergence rate. Additionally, just as with Nested Sampling, our method permits simultaneous inference of both posteriors and model evidence. Samples from our BQ surrogate model are re-selected to give a sparse set of samples, via a kernel recombination algorithm, requiring negligible additional time to increase the batch size. Empirically, we find that our approach significantly outperforms the sampling efficiency of both state-of-the-art BQ techniques and Nested Sampling in various real-world datasets, including lithium-ion battery analytics.
Goal-Image Conditioned Dynamic Cable Manipulation through Bayesian Inference and Multi-Objective Black-Box Optimization
Takahashi, Kuniyuki, Taniguchi, Tadahiro
To perform dynamic cable manipulation to realize the configuration specified by a target image, we formulate dynamic cable manipulation as a stochastic forward model. Then, we propose a method to handle uncertainty by maximizing the expectation, which also considers estimation errors of the trained model. To avoid issues like multiple local minima and requirement of differentiability by gradient-based methods, we propose using a black-box optimization (BBO) to optimize joint angles to realize a goal image. Among BBO, we use the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), a type of Bayesian optimization. By incorporating constraints into the TPE, the optimized joint angles are constrained within the range of motion. Since TPE is population-based, it is better able to detect multiple feasible configurations using the estimated inverse model. We evaluated image similarity between the target and cable images captured by executing the robot using optimal transport distance. The results show that the proposed method improves accuracy compared to conventional gradient-based approaches and methods that use deterministic models that do not consider uncertainty.
Distributionally Robust Offline Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation
Ma, Xiaoteng, Liang, Zhipeng, Blanchet, Jose, Liu, Mingwen, Xia, Li, Zhang, Jiheng, Zhao, Qianchuan, Zhou, Zhengyuan
Among the reasons hindering reinforcement learning (RL) applications to real-world problems, two factors are critical: limited data and the mismatch between the testing environment (real environment in which the policy is deployed) and the training environment (e.g., a simulator). This paper attempts to address these issues simultaneously with distributionally robust offline RL, where we learn a distributionally robust policy using historical data obtained from the source environment by optimizing against a worst-case perturbation thereof. In particular, we move beyond tabular settings and consider linear function approximation. More specifically, we consider two settings, one where the dataset is well-explored and the other where the dataset has sufficient coverage of the optimal policy. We propose two algorithms~-- one for each of the two settings~-- that achieve error bounds $\tilde{O}(d^{1/2}/N^{1/2})$ and $\tilde{O}(d^{3/2}/N^{1/2})$ respectively, where $d$ is the dimension in the linear function approximation and $N$ is the number of trajectories in the dataset. To the best of our knowledge, they provide the first non-asymptotic results of the sample complexity in this setting. Diverse experiments are conducted to demonstrate our theoretical findings, showing the superiority of our algorithm against the non-robust one.
On Instance-Dependent Bounds for Offline Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation
Nguyen-Tang, Thanh, Yin, Ming, Gupta, Sunil, Venkatesh, Svetha, Arora, Raman
Sample-efficient offline reinforcement learning (RL) with linear function approximation has recently been studied extensively. Much of prior work has yielded the minimax-optimal bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\frac{1}{\sqrt{K}})$, with $K$ being the number of episodes in the offline data. In this work, we seek to understand instance-dependent bounds for offline RL with function approximation. We present an algorithm called Bootstrapped and Constrained Pessimistic Value Iteration (BCP-VI), which leverages data bootstrapping and constrained optimization on top of pessimism. We show that under a partial data coverage assumption, that of \emph{concentrability} with respect to an optimal policy, the proposed algorithm yields a fast rate of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\frac{1}{K})$ for offline RL when there is a positive gap in the optimal Q-value functions, even when the offline data were adaptively collected. Moreover, when the linear features of the optimal actions in the states reachable by an optimal policy span those reachable by the behavior policy and the optimal actions are unique, offline RL achieves absolute zero sub-optimality error when $K$ exceeds a (finite) instance-dependent threshold. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\frac{1}{K})$ bound and absolute zero sub-optimality bound respectively for offline RL with linear function approximation from adaptive data with partial coverage. We also provide instance-agnostic and instance-dependent information-theoretical lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.
Reduced-Order Autodifferentiable Ensemble Kalman Filters
Chen, Yuming, Sanz-Alonso, Daniel, Willett, Rebecca
This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters (ROAD-EnKFs) learn a latent low-dimensional surrogate model for the dynamics and a decoder that maps from the latent space to the state space. The learned dynamics and decoder are then used within an ensemble Kalman filter to reconstruct and forecast the state. Numerical experiments show that if the state dynamics exhibit a hidden low-dimensional structure, ROAD-EnKFs achieve higher accuracy at lower computational cost compared to existing methods. If such structure is not expressed in the latent state dynamics, ROAD-EnKFs achieve similar accuracy at lower cost, making them a promising approach for surrogate state reconstruction and forecasting.
Embrace the Gap: VAEs Perform Independent Mechanism Analysis
Reizinger, Patrik, Gresele, Luigi, Brady, Jack, von Kรผgelgen, Julius, Zietlow, Dominik, Schรถlkopf, Bernhard, Martius, Georg, Brendel, Wieland, Besserve, Michel
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular framework for modeling complex data distributions; they can be efficiently trained via variational inference by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO), at the expense of a gap to the exact (log-)marginal likelihood. While VAEs are commonly used for disentangled representation learning, it is unclear why ELBO maximization would yield such representations, since unregularized maximum likelihood estimation generally cannot invert the data-generating process without additional assumptions. Yet, VAEs often succeed at this task. We seek to elucidate this apparent paradox by studying nonlinear VAEs in the limit of near-deterministic decoders. We first prove that, in this regime, the optimal encoder approximately inverts the decoder--a commonly used but unproven conjecture--which we refer to as self-consistency. Leveraging self-consistency, we show that the ELBO converges to a regularized log-likelihood. This allows VAEs to perform what has recently been termed independent mechanism analysis (IMA): it adds an inductive bias towards decoders with column-orthogonal Jacobians, which helps recovering the true latent factors. The gap between ELBO and log-likelihood is therefore welcome, since it bears unanticipated benefits for nonlinear representation learning. In experiments on synthetic and image data, we show that VAEs uncover the true latent factors when the data generating process satisfies the IMA assumption.
Streaming LifeLong Learning With Any-Time Inference
Banerjee, Soumya, Verma, Vinay Kumar, Namboodiri, Vinay P.
Despite rapid advancements in lifelong learning (LLL) research, a large body of research mainly focuses on improving the performance in the existing \textit{static} continual learning (CL) setups. These methods lack the ability to succeed in a rapidly changing \textit{dynamic} environment, where an AI agent needs to quickly learn new instances in a `single pass' from the non-i.i.d (also possibly temporally contiguous/coherent) data streams without suffering from catastrophic forgetting. For practical applicability, we propose a novel lifelong learning approach, which is streaming, i.e., a single input sample arrives in each time step, single pass, class-incremental, and subject to be evaluated at any moment. To address this challenging setup and various evaluation protocols, we propose a Bayesian framework, that enables fast parameter update, given a single training example, and enables any-time inference. We additionally propose an implicit regularizer in the form of snap-shot self-distillation, which effectively minimizes the forgetting further. We further propose an effective method that efficiently selects a subset of samples for online memory rehearsal and employs a new replay buffer management scheme that significantly boosts the overall performance. Our empirical evaluations and ablations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the prior works by large margins.
CROWDLAB: Supervised learning to infer consensus labels and quality scores for data with multiple annotators
Goh, Hui Wen, Tkachenko, Ulyana, Mueller, Jonas
Real-world data for classification is often labeled by multiple annotators. For analyzing such data, we introduce CROWDLAB, a straightforward approach to utilize any trained classifier to estimate: (1) A consensus label for each example that aggregates the available annotations; (2) A confidence score for how likely each consensus label is correct; (3) A rating for each annotator quantifying the overall correctness of their labels. Existing algorithms to estimate related quantities in crowdsourcing often rely on sophisticated generative models with iterative inference. CROWDLAB instead uses a straightforward weighted ensemble. Existing algorithms often rely solely on annotator statistics, ignoring the features of the examples from which the annotations derive. CROWDLAB utilizes any classifier model trained on these features, and can thus better generalize between examples with similar features. On real-world multi-annotator image data, our proposed method provides superior estimates for (1)-(3) than existing algorithms like Dawid-Skene/GLAD.