Uncertainty
Curiosity-based Robot Navigation under Uncertainty in Crowded Environments
Cai, Kuanqi, Chen, Weinan, Wang, Chaoqun, Zhang, Hong, Meng, Max Q. -H.
Mobile robots have become more and more popular in large-scale and crowded environments, such as airports, shopping malls, etc. However, due to sparse landmarks and crowd noise, localization in this environment is a great challenge. Furthermore, it is unreliable for the robot to navigate safely in crowds while considering human comfort. Thus, how to navigate safely with localization precision in that environment is a critical problem. To solve this problem, we proposed a curiosity-based framework that can find an effective path with the consideration of human comfort and crowds, localization uncertainty, and the cost-to-go to the target. Three parts are involved in the proposed framework: the distance assessment module, the Curiosity for Positive Content (CPC), namely information-rich areas, and the Curiosity for Negative Content (CNC), namely crowded areas. CPC is introduced when the real-time localization uncertainty evaluation is not satisfied. This factor is predicted through the propagation of uncertainty along the candidate trajectory to provoke the robot to approach localization-referenced landmarks. The Human Comfort and Crowd Density Map (HCCDM) based on the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is established to calculate CNC, which drives the robot to bypass the crowd and consider human comfort. The evaluation is conducted in a series of large-scale and crowded environments. The results show that our method can find a feasible path that can consider the localization uncertainty while simultaneously avoiding the crowded area.
Indeterminate Probability Neural Network
Yang, Tao, Liu, Chuang, Ma, Xiaofeng, Lu, Weijia, Wu, Ning, Li, Bingyang, Yang, Zhifei, Liu, Peng, Sun, Lin, Zhang, Xiaodong, Zhang, Can
We propose a new general model called IPNN - Indeterminate Probability Neural Network, which combines neural network and probability theory together. In the classical probability theory, the calculation of probability is based on the occurrence of events, which is hardly used in current neural networks. In this paper, we propose a new general probability theory, which is an extension of classical probability theory, and makes classical probability theory a special case to our theory. Besides, for our proposed neural network framework, the output of neural network is defined as probability events, and based on the statistical analysis of these events, the inference model for classification task is deduced. IPNN shows new property: It can perform unsupervised clustering while doing classification. Besides, IPNN is capable of making very large classification with very small neural network, e.g. model with 100 output nodes can classify 10 billion categories. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.
Long-tailed Classification from a Bayesian-decision-theory Perspective
Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.
Fully Bayesian inference for latent variable Gaussian process models
Yerramilli, Suraj, Iyer, Akshay, Chen, Wei, Apley, Daniel W.
Real engineering and scientific applications often involve one or more qualitative inputs. Standard Gaussian processes (GPs), however, cannot directly accommodate qualitative inputs. The recently introduced latent variable Gaussian process (LVGP) overcomes this issue by first mapping each qualitative factor to underlying latent variables (LVs), and then uses any standard GP covariance function over these LVs. The LVs are estimated similarly to the other GP hyperparameters through maximum likelihood estimation, and then plugged into the prediction expressions. However, this plug-in approach will not account for uncertainty in estimation of the LVs, which can be significant especially with limited training data. In this work, we develop a fully Bayesian approach for the LVGP model and for visualizing the effects of the qualitative inputs via their LVs. We also develop approximations for scaling up LVGPs and fully Bayesian inference for the LVGP hyperparameters. We conduct numerical studies comparing plug-in inference against fully Bayesian inference over a few engineering models and material design applications. In contrast to previous studies on standard GP modeling that have largely concluded that a fully Bayesian treatment offers limited improvements, our results show that for LVGP modeling it offers significant improvements in prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification over the plug-in approach.
Diffusion probabilistic modeling of protein backbones in 3D for the motif-scaffolding problem
Trippe, Brian L., Yim, Jason, Tischer, Doug, Baker, David, Broderick, Tamara, Barzilay, Regina, Jaakkola, Tommi
Construction of a scaffold structure that supports a desired motif, conferring protein function, shows promise for the design of vaccines and enzymes. But a general solution to this motif-scaffolding problem remains open. Current machine-learning techniques for scaffold design are either limited to unrealistically small scaffolds (up to length 20) or struggle to produce multiple diverse scaffolds. We propose to learn a distribution over diverse and longer protein backbone structures via an E(3)-equivariant graph neural network. We develop SMCDiff to efficiently sample scaffolds from this distribution conditioned on a given motif; our algorithm is the first to theoretically guarantee conditional samples from a diffusion model in the large-compute limit. We evaluate our designed backbones by how well they align with AlphaFold2-predicted structures. We show that our method can (1) sample scaffolds up to 80 residues and (2) achieve structurally diverse scaffolds for a fixed motif.
Machine learning with data assimilation and uncertainty quantification for dynamical systems: a review
Cheng, Sibo, Quilodran-Casas, Cesar, Ouala, Said, Farchi, Alban, Liu, Che, Tandeo, Pierre, Fablet, Ronan, Lucor, Didier, Iooss, Bertrand, Brajard, Julien, Xiao, Dunhui, Janjic, Tijana, Ding, Weiping, Guo, Yike, Carrassi, Alberto, Bocquet, Marc, Arcucci, Rossella
Data Assimilation (DA) and Uncertainty quantification (UQ) are extensively used in analysing and reducing error propagation in high-dimensional spatial-temporal dynamics. Typical applications span from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to geoscience and climate systems. Recently, much effort has been given in combining DA, UQ and machine learning (ML) techniques. These research efforts seek to address some critical challenges in high-dimensional dynamical systems, including but not limited to dynamical system identification, reduced order surrogate modelling, error covariance specification and model error correction. A large number of developed techniques and methodologies exhibit a broad applicability across numerous domains, resulting in the necessity for a comprehensive guide. This paper provides the first overview of the state-of-the-art researches in this interdisciplinary field, covering a wide range of applications. This review aims at ML scientists who attempt to apply DA and UQ techniques to improve the accuracy and the interpretability of their models, but also at DA and UQ experts who intend to integrate cutting-edge ML approaches to their systems. Therefore, this article has a special focus on how ML methods can overcome the existing limits of DA and UQ, and vice versa. Some exciting perspectives of this rapidly developing research field are also discussed.
Representation Bias in Data: A Survey on Identification and Resolution Techniques
Shahbazi, Nima, Lin, Yin, Asudeh, Abolfazl, Jagadish, H. V.
Data-driven algorithms are only as good as the data they work with, while data sets, especially social data, often fail to represent minorities adequately. Representation Bias in data can happen due to various reasons ranging from historical discrimination to selection and sampling biases in the data acquisition and preparation methods. Given that "bias in, bias out", one cannot expect AI-based solutions to have equitable outcomes for societal applications, without addressing issues such as representation bias. While there has been extensive study of fairness in machine learning models, including several review papers, bias in the data has been less studied. This paper reviews the literature on identifying and resolving representation bias as a feature of a data set, independent of how consumed later. The scope of this survey is bounded to structured (tabular) and unstructured (e.g., image, text, graph) data. It presents taxonomies to categorize the studied techniques based on multiple design dimensions and provides a side-by-side comparison of their properties. There is still a long way to fully address representation bias issues in data. The authors hope that this survey motivates researchers to approach these challenges in the future by observing existing work within their respective domains.
Deep Image Feature Learning with Fuzzy Rules
Ma, Xiang, Chen, Liangzhe, Deng, Zhaohong, Xu, Peng, Yan, Qisheng, Choi, Kup-Sze, Wang, Shitong
The methods of extracting image features are the key to many image processing tasks. At present, the most popular method is the deep neural network which can automatically extract robust features through end-to-end training instead of hand-crafted feature extraction. However, the deep neural network currently faces many challenges: 1) its effectiveness is heavily dependent on large datasets, so the computational complexity is very high; 2) it is usually regarded as a black box model with poor interpretability. To meet the above challenges, a more interpretable and scalable feature learning method, i.e., deep image feature learning with fuzzy rules (DIFL-FR), is proposed in the paper, which combines the rule-based fuzzy modeling technique and the deep stacked learning strategy. The method progressively learns image features through a layer-by-layer manner based on fuzzy rules, so the feature learning process can be better explained by the generated rules. More importantly, the learning process of the method is only based on forward propagation without back propagation and iterative learning, which results in the high learning efficiency. In addition, the method is under the settings of unsupervised learning and can be easily extended to scenes of supervised and semi-supervised learning. Extensive experiments are conducted on image datasets of different scales. The results obviously show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
An Adaptive Fuzzy Reinforcement Learning Cooperative Approach for the Autonomous Control of Flock Systems
Qu, Shuzheng, Abouheaf, Mohammed, Gueaieb, Wail, Spinello, Davide
The flock-guidance problem enjoys a challenging structure where multiple optimization objectives are solved simultaneously. This usually necessitates different control approaches to tackle various objectives, such as guidance, collision avoidance, and cohesion. The guidance schemes, in particular, have long suffered from complex tracking-error dynamics. Furthermore, techniques that are based on linear feedback strategies obtained at equilibrium conditions either may not hold or degrade when applied to uncertain dynamic environments. Pre-tuned fuzzy inference architectures lack robustness under such unmodeled conditions. This work introduces an adaptive distributed technique for the autonomous control of flock systems. Its relatively flexible structure is based on online fuzzy reinforcement learning schemes which simultaneously target a number of objectives; namely, following a leader, avoiding collision, and reaching a flock velocity consensus. In addition to its resilience in the face of dynamic disturbances, the algorithm does not require more than the agent position as a feedback signal. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated with two simulation scenarios and benchmarked against a similar technique from the literature.
Markov Conditions and Factorization in Logical Credal Networks
We examine the recently proposed language of Logical Credal Networks, in particular investigating the consequences of various Markov conditions. We introduce the notion of structure for a Logical Credal Network and show that a structure without directed cycles leads to a well-known factorization result. For networks with directed cycles, we analyze the differences between Markov conditions, factorization results, and specification requirements.