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 Uncertainty


Diffusion models with location-scale noise

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion Models (DMs) are powerful generative models that add Gaussian noise to the data and learn to remove it. We wanted to determine which noise distribution (Gaussian or non-Gaussian) led to better generated data in DMs. Since DMs do not work by design with non-Gaussian noise, we built a framework that allows reversing a diffusion process with non-Gaussian location-scale noise. We use that framework to show that the Gaussian distribution performs the best over a wide range of other distributions (Laplace, Uniform, t, Generalized-Gaussian).


Dynamic Mixed Membership Stochastic Block Model for Weighted Labeled Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most real-world networks evolve over time. Existing literature proposes models for dynamic networks that are either unlabeled or assumed to have a single membership structure. On the other hand, a new family of Mixed Membership Stochastic Block Models (MMSBM) allows to model static labeled networks under the assumption of mixed-membership clustering. In this work, we propose to extend this later class of models to infer dynamic labeled networks under a mixed membership assumption. Our approach takes the form of a temporal prior on the model's parameters. It relies on the single assumption that dynamics are not abrupt. We show that our method significantly differs from existing approaches, and allows to model more complex systems --dynamic labeled networks. We demonstrate the robustness of our method with several experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets. A key interest of our approach is that it needs very few training data to yield good results. The performance gain under challenging conditions broadens the variety of possible applications of automated learning tools --as in social sciences, which comprise many fields where small datasets are a major obstacle to the introduction of machine learning methods.


Near-Optimal Degree Testing for Bayes Nets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper considers the problem of testing the maximum in-degree of the Bayes net underlying an unknown probability distribution $P$ over $\{0,1\}^n$, given sample access to $P$. We show that the sample complexity of the problem is $\tilde{\Theta}(2^{n/2}/\varepsilon^2)$. Our algorithm relies on a testing-by-learning framework, previously used to obtain sample-optimal testers; in order to apply this framework, we develop new algorithms for ``near-proper'' learning of Bayes nets, and high-probability learning under $\chi^2$ divergence, which are of independent interest.


Bayesian Causal Inference in Doubly Gaussian DAG-probit Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider modeling a binary response variable together with a set of covariates for two groups under observational data. The grouping variable can be the confounding variable (the common cause of treatment and outcome), gender, case/control, ethnicity, etc. Given the covariates and a binary latent variable, the goal is to construct two directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), while sharing some common parameters. The set of nodes, which represent the variables, are the same for both groups but the directed edges between nodes, which represent the causal relationships between the variables, can be potentially different. For each group, we also estimate the effect size for each node. We assume that each group follows a Gaussian distribution under its DAG. Given the parent nodes, the joint distribution of DAG is conditionally independent due to the Markov property of DAGs. We introduce the concept of Gaussian DAG-probit model under two groups and hence doubly Gaussian DAG-probit model. To estimate the skeleton of the DAGs and the model parameters, we took samples from the posterior distribution of doubly Gaussian DAG-probit model via MCMC method. We validated the proposed method using a comprehensive simulation experiment and applied it on two real datasets. Furthermore, we validated the results of the real data analysis using well-known experimental studies to show the value of the proposed grouping variable in the causality domain.


Meta-Learned Models of Cognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Meta-learning is a framework for learning learning algorithms through repeated interactions with an environment as opposed to designing them by hand. In recent years, this framework has established itself as a promising tool for building models of human cognition. Yet, a coherent research program around meta-learned models of cognition is still missing. The purpose of this article is to synthesize previous work in this field and establish such a research program. We rely on three key pillars to accomplish this goal. We first point out that meta-learning can be used to construct Bayes-optimal learning algorithms. This result not only implies that any behavioral phenomenon that can be explained by a Bayesian model can also be explained by a meta-learned model but also allows us to draw strong connections to the rational analysis of cognition. We then discuss several advantages of the meta-learning framework over traditional Bayesian methods. In particular, we argue that meta-learning can be applied to situations where Bayesian inference is impossible and that it enables us to make rational models of cognition more realistic, either by incorporating limited computational resources or neuroscientific knowledge. Finally, we reexamine prior studies from psychology and neuroscience that have applied meta-learning and put them into the context of these new insights. In summary, our work highlights that meta-learning considerably extends the scope of rational analysis and thereby of cognitive theories more generally.


Generative Modeling via Hierarchical Tensor Sketching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a hierarchical tensor-network approach for approximating high-dimensional probability density via empirical distribution. This leverages randomized singular value decomposition (SVD) techniques and involves solving linear equations for tensor cores in this tensor network. The complexity of the resulting algorithm scales linearly in the dimension of the high-dimensional density. An analysis of estimation error demonstrates the effectiveness of this method through several numerical experiments.


KGS: Causal Discovery Using Knowledge-guided Greedy Equivalence Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning causal relationships solely from observational data provides insufficient information about the underlying causal mechanism and the search space of possible causal graphs. As a result, often the search space can grow exponentially for approaches such as Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) that uses a score-based approach to search the space of equivalence classes of graphs. Prior causal information such as the presence or absence of a causal edge can be leveraged to guide the discovery process towards a more restricted and accurate search space. In this study, we present KGS, a knowledge-guided greedy score-based causal discovery approach that uses observational data and structural priors (causal edges) as constraints to learn the causal graph. KGS is a novel application of knowledge constraints that can leverage any of the following prior edge information between any two variables: the presence of a directed edge, the absence of an edge, and the presence of an undirected edge. We extensively evaluate KGS across multiple settings in both synthetic and benchmark real-world datasets. Our experimental results demonstrate that structural priors of any type and amount are helpful and guide the search process towards an improved performance and early convergence.


Delayed Feedback in Generalised Linear Bandits Revisited

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The stochastic generalised linear bandit is a well-understood model for sequential decision-making problems, with many algorithms achieving near-optimal regret guarantees under immediate feedback. However, the stringent requirement for immediate rewards is unmet in many real-world applications where the reward is almost always delayed. We study the phenomenon of delayed rewards in generalised linear bandits in a theoretical manner. We show that a natural adaptation of an optimistic algorithm to the delayed feedback achieves a regret bound where the penalty for the delays is independent of the horizon. This result significantly improves upon existing work, where the best known regret bound has the delay penalty increasing with the horizon. We verify our theoretical results through experiments on simulated data.


DIET: Conditional independence testing with marginal dependence measures of residual information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Conditional randomization tests (CRTs) assess whether a variable $x$ is predictive of another variable $y$, having observed covariates $z$. CRTs require fitting a large number of predictive models, which is often computationally intractable. Existing solutions to reduce the cost of CRTs typically split the dataset into a train and test portion, or rely on heuristics for interactions, both of which lead to a loss in power. We propose the decoupled independence test (DIET), an algorithm that avoids both of these issues by leveraging marginal independence statistics to test conditional independence relationships. DIET tests the marginal independence of two random variables: $F(x \mid z)$ and $F(y \mid z)$ where $F(\cdot \mid z)$ is a conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF). These variables are termed "information residuals." We give sufficient conditions for DIET to achieve finite sample type-1 error control and power greater than the type-1 error rate. We then prove that when using the mutual information between the information residuals as a test statistic, DIET yields the most powerful conditionally valid test. Finally, we show DIET achieves higher power than other tractable CRTs on several synthetic and real benchmarks.


The No Free Lunch Theorem, Kolmogorov Complexity, and the Role of Inductive Biases in Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

No free lunch theorems for supervised learning state that no learner can solve all problems or that all learners achieve exactly the same accuracy on average over a uniform distribution on learning problems. Accordingly, these theorems are often referenced in support of the notion that individual problems require specially tailored inductive biases. While virtually all uniformly sampled datasets have high complexity, real-world problems disproportionately generate low-complexity data, and we argue that neural network models share this same preference, formalized using Kolmogorov complexity. Notably, we show that architectures designed for a particular domain, such as computer vision, can compress datasets on a variety of seemingly unrelated domains. Our experiments show that pre-trained and even randomly initialized language models prefer to generate low-complexity sequences. Whereas no free lunch theorems seemingly indicate that individual problems require specialized learners, we explain how tasks that often require human intervention such as picking an appropriately sized model when labeled data is scarce or plentiful can be automated into a single learning algorithm. These observations justify the trend in deep learning of unifying seemingly disparate problems with an increasingly small set of machine learning models.