Federated learning (FL) demonstrates its advantages in integrating distributed infrastructure, communication, computing and learning in a privacy-preserving manner. However, the robustness and capabilities of existing FL methods are challenged by limited and dynamic data and conditions, complexities including heterogeneities and uncertainties, and analytical explainability. Bayesian federated learning (BFL) has emerged as a promising approach to address these issues. This survey presents a critical overview of BFL, including its basic concepts, its relations to Bayesian learning in the context of FL, and a taxonomy of BFL from both Bayesian and federated perspectives. We categorize and discuss client- and server-side and FL-based BFL methods and their pros and cons. The limitations of the existing BFL methods and the future directions of BFL research further address the intricate requirements of real-life FL applications.

Time series clustering is a central machine learning task with applications in many fields. While the majority of the methods focus on real-valued time series, very few works consider series with discrete response. In this paper, the problem of clustering ordinal time series is addressed. To this aim, two novel distances between ordinal time series are introduced and used to construct fuzzy clustering procedures. Both metrics are functions of the estimated cumulative probabilities, thus automatically taking advantage of the ordering inherent to the series' range. The resulting clustering algorithms are computationally efficient and able to group series generated from similar stochastic processes, reaching accurate results even though the series come from a wide variety of models. Since the dynamic of the series may vary over the time, we adopt a fuzzy approach, thus enabling the procedures to locate each series into several clusters with different membership degrees. An extensive simulation study shows that the proposed methods outperform several alternative procedures. Weighted versions of the clustering algorithms are also presented and their advantages with respect to the original methods are discussed. Two specific applications involving economic time series illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approaches.

A digital twin (DT) leverages a virtual representation of the physical world, along with communication (e.g., 6G), computing (e.g., edge computing), and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to enable many connected intelligence services. In order to handle the large amounts of network data based on digital twins (DTs), wireless systems can exploit the paradigm of semantic communication (SC) for facilitating informed decision-making under strict communication constraints by utilizing AI techniques such as causal reasoning. In this paper, a novel framework called causal semantic communication (CSC) is proposed for DT-based wireless systems. The CSC system is posed as an imitation learning (IL) problem, where the transmitter, with access to optimal network control policies using a DT, teaches the receiver using SC over a bandwidth limited wireless channel how to improve its knowledge to perform optimal control actions. The causal structure in the source data is extracted using novel approaches from the framework of deep end-to-end causal inference, thereby enabling the creation of a semantic representation that is causally invariant, which in turn helps generalize the learned knowledge of the system to unseen scenarios. The CSC decoder at the receiver is designed to extract and estimate semantic information while ensuring high semantic reliability. The receiver control policies, semantic decoder, and causal inference are formulated as a bi-level optimization problem within a variational inference framework. This problem is solved using a novel concept called network state models, inspired from world models in generative AI, that faithfully represents the environment dynamics leading to data generation. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed CSC system outperforms state-of-the-art SC systems by achieving better semantic reliability and reduced semantic representation.

A central task in control theory, artificial intelligence, and formal methods is to synthesize reward-maximizing strategies for agents that operate in partially unknown environments. In environments modeled by gray-box Markov decision processes (MDPs), the impact of the agents' actions are known in terms of successor states but not the stochastics involved. In this paper, we devise a strategy synthesis algorithm for gray-box MDPs via reinforcement learning that utilizes interval MDPs as internal model. To compete with limited sampling access in reinforcement learning, we incorporate two novel concepts into our algorithm, focusing on rapid and successful learning rather than on stochastic guarantees and optimality: lower confidence bound exploration reinforces variants of already learned practical strategies and action scoping reduces the learning action space to promising actions. We illustrate benefits of our algorithms by means of a prototypical implementation applied on examples from the AI and formal methods communities.

While PAC-Bayes is now an established learning framework for light-tailed losses (\emph{e.g.}, subgaussian or subexponential), its extension to the case of heavy-tailed losses remains largely uncharted and has attracted a growing interest in recent years. We contribute PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds for heavy-tailed losses under the sole assumption of bounded variance of the loss function. Under that assumption, we extend previous results from \citet{kuzborskij2019efron}. Our key technical contribution is exploiting an extention of Markov's inequality for supermartingales. Our proof technique unifies and extends different PAC-Bayesian frameworks by providing bounds for unbounded martingales as well as bounds for batch and online learning with heavy-tailed losses.

Predicting neural architecture performance is a challenging task and is crucial to neural architecture design and search. Existing approaches either rely on neural performance predictors which are limited to modeling architectures in a predefined design space involving specific sets of operators and connection rules, and cannot generalize to unseen architectures, or resort to zero-cost proxies which are not always accurate. In this paper, we propose GENNAPE, a Generalized Neural Architecture Performance Estimator, which is pretrained on open neural architecture benchmarks, and aims to generalize to completely unseen architectures through combined innovations in network representation, contrastive pretraining, and fuzzy clustering-based predictor ensemble. Specifically, GENNAPE represents a given neural network as a Computation Graph (CG) of atomic operations which can model an arbitrary architecture. It first learns a graph encoder via Contrastive Learning to encourage network separation by topological features, and then trains multiple predictor heads, which are soft-aggregated according to the fuzzy membership of a neural network. Experiments show that GENNAPE pretrained on NAS-Bench-101 can achieve superior transferability to 5 different public neural network benchmarks, including NAS-Bench-201, NAS-Bench-301, MobileNet and ResNet families under no or minimum fine-tuning. We further introduce 3 challenging newly labelled neural network benchmarks: HiAML, Inception and Two-Path, which can concentrate in narrow accuracy ranges. Extensive experiments show that GENNAPE can correctly discern high-performance architectures in these families. Finally, when paired with a search algorithm, GENNAPE can find architectures that improve accuracy while reducing FLOPs on three families.

Neural networks have been successfully employed in various domains such as classification, regression and clustering, etc. Generally, the back propagation (BP) based iterative approaches are used to train the neural networks, however, it results in the issues of local minima, sensitivity to learning rate and slow convergence. To overcome these issues, randomization based neural networks such as random vector functional link (RVFL) network have been proposed. RVFL model has several characteristics such as fast training speed, direct links, simple architecture, and universal approximation capability, that make it a viable randomized neural network. This article presents the first comprehensive review of the evolution of RVFL model, which can serve as the extensive summary for the beginners as well as practitioners. We discuss the shallow RVFLs, ensemble RVFLs, deep RVFLs and ensemble deep RVFL models. The variations, improvements and applications of RVFL models are discussed in detail. Moreover, we discuss the different hyperparameter optimization techniques followed in the literature to improve the generalization performance of the RVFL model. Finally, we give potential future research directions/opportunities that can inspire the researchers to improve the RVFL's architecture and learning algorithm further.

Battery cycle life prediction using early degradation data has many potential applications throughout the battery product life cycle. For that reason, various data-driven methods have been proposed for point prediction of battery cycle life with minimum knowledge of the battery degradation mechanisms. However, managing the rapidly increasing amounts of batteries at end-of-life with lower economic and technical risk requires prediction of cycle life with quantified uncertainty, which is still lacking. The interpretability (i.e., the reason for high prediction accuracy) of these advanced data-driven methods is also worthy of investigation. Here, a Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) model, having the advantage of not assuming any specific distribution of cycle life, is introduced to make cycle life range prediction with uncertainty quantified as the width of the prediction interval, in addition to point predictions with high accuracy. The hyperparameters of the QRF model are optimized with a proposed alpha-logistic-weighted criterion so that the coverage probabilities associated with the prediction intervals are calibrated. The interpretability of the final QRF model is explored with two global model-agnostic methods, namely permutation importance and partial dependence plot.

Cell transmission models enable the quantification of the motion of traffic participants on a high level of aggregation. This provides computational advantages in comparison to microscopic traffic models that capture the motion of traffic participants in great detail. This gain in computational efficiency is sometimes disadvantageously associated with lower granularity, which complicates the representation of complex traffic modules and interactions of traffic participants. In this paper, we propose a rigorous framework for cell transmission models that incorporates three important features: a) The cells are identified with the nodes of a graph. We introduce a precise notation for the directions of the traffic participants within each cell. This allows the construction of cell transmission models for general traffic networks.

Standard Bayesian learning is known to have suboptimal generalization capabilities under misspecification and in the presence of outliers. PAC-Bayes theory demonstrates that the free energy criterion minimized by Bayesian learning is a bound on the generalization error for Gibbs predictors (i.e., for single models drawn at random from the posterior) under the assumption of sampling distributions uncontaminated by outliers. This viewpoint provides a justification for the limitations of Bayesian learning when the model is misspecified, requiring ensembling, and when data is affected by outliers. In recent work, PAC-Bayes bounds -- referred to as PAC$^m$ -- were derived to introduce free energy metrics that account for the performance of ensemble predictors, obtaining enhanced performance under misspecification. This work presents a novel robust free energy criterion that combines the generalized logarithm score function with PAC$^m$ ensemble bounds. The proposed free energy training criterion produces predictive distributions that are able to concurrently counteract the detrimental effects of misspecification -- with respect to both likelihood and prior distribution -- and outliers.