Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is the task of building a map representation of an unknown environment while it at the same time is used for positioning. A probabilistic interpretation of the SLAM task allows for incorporating prior knowledge and for operation under uncertainty. Contrary to the common practice of computing point estimates of the system states, we capture the full posterior density through approximate Bayesian inference. This dynamic learning task falls under state estimation, where the state-of-the-art is in sequential Monte Carlo methods that tackle the forward filtering problem. In this paper, we introduce a framework for probabilistic SLAM using particle smoothing that does not only incorporate observed data in current state estimates, but it also back-tracks the updated knowledge to correct for past drift and ambiguities in both the map and in the states. Our solution can efficiently handle both dense and sparse map representations by Rao-Blackwellization of conditionally linear and conditionally linearized models. We show through simulations and real-world experiments how the principles apply to radio (BLE/Wi-Fi), magnetic field, and visual SLAM. The proposed solution is general, efficient, and works well under confounding noise.

An important problem in time-series analysis is modeling systems with time-varying dynamics. Probabilistic models with joint continuous and discrete latent states offer interpretable, efficient, and experimentally useful descriptions of such data. Commonly used models include autoregressive hidden Markov models (ARHMMs) and switching linear dynamical systems (SLDSs), each with its own advantages and disadvantages. ARHMMs permit exact inference and easy parameter estimation, but are parameter intensive when modeling long dependencies, and hence are prone to overfitting. In contrast, SLDSs can capture long-range dependencies in a parameter efficient way through Markovian latent dynamics, but present an intractable likelihood and a challenging parameter estimation task. In this paper, we propose switching autoregressive low-rank tensor (SALT) models, which retain the advantages of both approaches while ameliorating the weaknesses. SALT parameterizes the tensor of an ARHMM with a low-rank factorization to control the number of parameters and allow longer range dependencies without overfitting. We prove theoretical and discuss practical connections between SALT, linear dynamical systems, and SLDSs. We empirically demonstrate quantitative advantages of SALT models on a range of simulated and real prediction tasks, including behavioral and neural datasets. Furthermore, the learned low-rank tensor provides novel insights into temporal dependencies within each discrete state.

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three common causal structures with unobserved confounding, and propose a practical learning method that casts learning a BGM as structured generative modeling. Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation and can be obtained using a variety of deep conditional generative models. We evaluate our techniques in a visual task and demonstrate its application in a real-world video streaming simulation task.

We consider the problem of answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries in a causally sufficient setting where only observational data and the causal graph are available. Utilizing the recent developments in diffusion models, we introduce diffusion-based causal models (DCM) to learn causal mechanisms, that generate unique latent encodings. These encodings enable us to directly sample under interventions and perform abduction for counterfactuals. Diffusion models are a natural fit here, since they can encode each node to a latent representation that acts as a proxy for exogenous noise. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate significant improvements over existing state-of-the-art methods for answering causal queries. Furthermore, we provide theoretical results that offer a methodology for analyzing counterfactual estimation in general encoder-decoder models, which could be useful in settings beyond our proposed approach.

A major challenge in the field of Text Generation is evaluation: Human evaluations are cost-intensive, and automated metrics often display considerable disagreement with human judgments. In this paper, we propose a statistical model of Text Generation evaluation that accounts for the error-proneness of automated metrics when used to generate preference rankings between system outputs. We show that existing automated metrics are generally over-confident in assigning significant differences between systems in this setting. However, our model enables an efficient combination of human and automated ratings to remedy the error-proneness of the automated metrics. We show that using this combination, we only require about 50% of the human annotations typically used in evaluations to arrive at robust and statistically significant results while yielding the same evaluation outcome as the pure human evaluation in 95% of cases. We showcase the benefits of approach for three text generation tasks: dialogue systems, machine translation, and text summarization.

One problem to solve in the context of information fusion, decision-making, and other artificial intelligence challenges is to compute justified beliefs based on evidence. In real-life examples, this evidence may be inconsistent, incomplete, or uncertain, making the problem of evidence fusion highly non-trivial. In this paper, we propose a new model for measuring degrees of beliefs based on possibly inconsistent, incomplete, and uncertain evidence, by combining tools from Dempster-Shafer Theory and Topological Models of Evidence. Our belief model is more general than the aforementioned approaches in two important ways: (1) it can reproduce them when appropriate constraints are imposed, and, more notably, (2) it is flexible enough to compute beliefs according to various standards that represent agents' evidential demands. The latter novelty allows the users of our model to employ it to compute an agent's (possibly) distinct degrees of belief, based on the same evidence, in situations when, e.g, the agent prioritizes avoiding false negatives and when it prioritizes avoiding false positives. Finally, we show that computing degrees of belief with this model is #P-complete in general.

Entanglement serves as the resource to empower quantum computing. Recent progress has highlighted its positive impact on learning quantum dynamics, wherein the integration of entanglement into quantum operations or measurements of quantum machine learning (QML) models leads to substantial reductions in training data size, surpassing a specified prediction error threshold. However, an analytical understanding of how the entanglement degree in data affects model performance remains elusive. In this study, we address this knowledge gap by establishing a quantum no-free-lunch (NFL) theorem for learning quantum dynamics using entangled data. Contrary to previous findings, we prove that the impact of entangled data on prediction error exhibits a dual effect, depending on the number of permitted measurements. With a sufficient number of measurements, increasing the entanglement of training data consistently reduces the prediction error or decreases the required size of the training data to achieve the same prediction error. Conversely, when few measurements are allowed, employing highly entangled data could lead to an increased prediction error. The achieved results provide critical guidance for designing advanced QML protocols, especially for those tailored for execution on early-stage quantum computers with limited access to quantum resources.

The inherent challenge of multimodal fusion is to precisely capture the cross-modal correlation and flexibly conduct cross-modal interaction. To fully release the value of each modality and mitigate the influence of low-quality multimodal data, dynamic multimodal fusion emerges as a promising learning paradigm. Despite its widespread use, theoretical justifications in this field are still notably lacking. Can we design a provably robust multimodal fusion method? This paper provides theoretical understandings to answer this question under a most popular multimodal fusion framework from the generalization perspective. We proceed to reveal that several uncertainty estimation solutions are naturally available to achieve robust multimodal fusion. Then a novel multimodal fusion framework termed Quality-aware Multimodal Fusion (QMF) is proposed, which can improve the performance in terms of classification accuracy and model robustness. Extensive experimental results on multiple benchmarks can support our findings.

This paper studies the open problem of conformalized entry prediction in a row/column-exchangeable matrix. The matrix setting presents novel and unique challenges, but there exists little work on this interesting topic. We meticulously define the problem, differentiate it from closely related problems, and rigorously delineate the boundary between achievable and impossible goals. We then propose two practical algorithms. The first method provides a fast emulation of the full conformal prediction, while the second method leverages the technique of algorithmic stability for acceleration. Both methods are computationally efficient and can effectively safeguard coverage validity in presence of arbitrary missing pattern. Further, we quantify the impact of missingness on prediction accuracy and establish fundamental limit results. Empirical evidence from synthetic and real-world data sets corroborates the superior performance of our proposed methods.

Prior beliefs about the latent function to shape inductive biases can be incorporated into a Gaussian Process (GP) via the kernel. However, beyond kernel choices, the decision-making process of GP models remains poorly understood. In this work, we contribute an analysis of the loss landscape for GP models using methods from physics. We demonstrate $\nu$-continuity for Matern kernels and outline aspects of catastrophe theory at critical points in the loss landscape. By directly including $\nu$ in the hyperparameter optimisation for Matern kernels, we find that typical values of $\nu$ are far from optimal in terms of performance, yet prevail in the literature due to the increased computational speed. We also provide an a priori method for evaluating the effect of GP ensembles and discuss various voting approaches based on physical properties of the loss landscape. The utility of these approaches is demonstrated for various synthetic and real datasets. Our findings provide an enhanced understanding of the decision-making process behind GPs and offer practical guidance for improving their performance and interpretability in a range of applications.