One problem to solve in the context of information fusion, decision-making, and other artificial intelligence challenges is to compute justified beliefs based on evidence. In real-life examples, this evidence may be inconsistent, incomplete, or uncertain, making the problem of evidence fusion highly non-trivial. In this paper, we propose a new model for measuring degrees of beliefs based on possibly inconsistent, incomplete, and uncertain evidence, by combining tools from Dempster-Shafer Theory and Topological Models of Evidence. Our belief model is more general than the aforementioned approaches in two important ways: (1) it can reproduce them when appropriate constraints are imposed, and, more notably, (2) it is flexible enough to compute beliefs according to various standards that represent agents' evidential demands. The latter novelty allows the users of our model to employ it to compute an agent's (possibly) distinct degrees of belief, based on the same evidence, in situations when, e.g, the agent prioritizes avoiding false negatives and when it prioritizes avoiding false positives. Finally, we show that computing degrees of belief with this model is #P-complete in general.

Entanglement serves as the resource to empower quantum computing. Recent progress has highlighted its positive impact on learning quantum dynamics, wherein the integration of entanglement into quantum operations or measurements of quantum machine learning (QML) models leads to substantial reductions in training data size, surpassing a specified prediction error threshold. However, an analytical understanding of how the entanglement degree in data affects model performance remains elusive. In this study, we address this knowledge gap by establishing a quantum no-free-lunch (NFL) theorem for learning quantum dynamics using entangled data. Contrary to previous findings, we prove that the impact of entangled data on prediction error exhibits a dual effect, depending on the number of permitted measurements. With a sufficient number of measurements, increasing the entanglement of training data consistently reduces the prediction error or decreases the required size of the training data to achieve the same prediction error. Conversely, when few measurements are allowed, employing highly entangled data could lead to an increased prediction error. The achieved results provide critical guidance for designing advanced QML protocols, especially for those tailored for execution on early-stage quantum computers with limited access to quantum resources.

The inherent challenge of multimodal fusion is to precisely capture the cross-modal correlation and flexibly conduct cross-modal interaction. To fully release the value of each modality and mitigate the influence of low-quality multimodal data, dynamic multimodal fusion emerges as a promising learning paradigm. Despite its widespread use, theoretical justifications in this field are still notably lacking. Can we design a provably robust multimodal fusion method? This paper provides theoretical understandings to answer this question under a most popular multimodal fusion framework from the generalization perspective. We proceed to reveal that several uncertainty estimation solutions are naturally available to achieve robust multimodal fusion. Then a novel multimodal fusion framework termed Quality-aware Multimodal Fusion (QMF) is proposed, which can improve the performance in terms of classification accuracy and model robustness. Extensive experimental results on multiple benchmarks can support our findings.

This paper studies the open problem of conformalized entry prediction in a row/column-exchangeable matrix. The matrix setting presents novel and unique challenges, but there exists little work on this interesting topic. We meticulously define the problem, differentiate it from closely related problems, and rigorously delineate the boundary between achievable and impossible goals. We then propose two practical algorithms. The first method provides a fast emulation of the full conformal prediction, while the second method leverages the technique of algorithmic stability for acceleration. Both methods are computationally efficient and can effectively safeguard coverage validity in presence of arbitrary missing pattern. Further, we quantify the impact of missingness on prediction accuracy and establish fundamental limit results. Empirical evidence from synthetic and real-world data sets corroborates the superior performance of our proposed methods.

Prior beliefs about the latent function to shape inductive biases can be incorporated into a Gaussian Process (GP) via the kernel. However, beyond kernel choices, the decision-making process of GP models remains poorly understood. In this work, we contribute an analysis of the loss landscape for GP models using methods from physics. We demonstrate $\nu$-continuity for Matern kernels and outline aspects of catastrophe theory at critical points in the loss landscape. By directly including $\nu$ in the hyperparameter optimisation for Matern kernels, we find that typical values of $\nu$ are far from optimal in terms of performance, yet prevail in the literature due to the increased computational speed. We also provide an a priori method for evaluating the effect of GP ensembles and discuss various voting approaches based on physical properties of the loss landscape. The utility of these approaches is demonstrated for various synthetic and real datasets. Our findings provide an enhanced understanding of the decision-making process behind GPs and offer practical guidance for improving their performance and interpretability in a range of applications.

The dynamic nature of proteins is crucial for determining their biological functions and properties, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations stand as a predominant tool to study such phenomena. By utilizing empirically derived force fields, MD simulations explore the conformational space through numerically evolving the system along MD trajectories. However, the high-energy barrier of the force fields can hamper the exploration of MD, resulting in inadequately sampled ensemble. In this paper, we propose leveraging score-based generative models (SGMs) trained on general protein structures to perform protein conformational sampling to complement traditional MD simulations. We argue that SGMs can provide a novel framework as an alternative to traditional enhanced sampling methods by learning multi-level score functions, which directly sample a diversity-controllable ensemble of conformations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several benchmark systems by comparing the results with long MD trajectories and state-of-the-art generative structure prediction models. Our framework provides new insights that SGMs have the potential to serve as an efficient and simulation-free methods to study protein dynamics.

We introduce a deep learning accelerated methodology to solve PDE-based Bayesian inverse problems with guaranteed accuracy. This is motivated by the ill-posed problem of inferring a spatio-temporal heat-flux parameter known as the Biot number given temperature data, however the methodology is generalisable to other settings. To accelerate Bayesian inference, we develop a novel training scheme that uses data to adaptively train a neural-network surrogate simulating the parametric forward model. By simultaneously identifying an approximate posterior distribution over the Biot number, and weighting a physics-informed training loss according to this, our approach approximates forward and inverse solution together without any need for external solves. Using a random Chebyshev series, we outline how to approximate a Gaussian process prior, and using the surrogate we apply Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) to sample from the posterior distribution. We derive convergence of the surrogate posterior to the true posterior distribution in the Hellinger metric as our adaptive loss approaches zero. Additionally, we describe how this surrogate-accelerated HMC approach can be combined with traditional PDE solvers in a delayed-acceptance scheme to a-priori control the posterior accuracy. This overcomes a major limitation of deep learning-based surrogate approaches, which do not achieve guaranteed accuracy a-priori due to their non-convex training. Biot number calculations are involved in turbo-machinery design, which is safety critical and highly regulated, therefore it is important that our results have such mathematical guarantees. Our approach achieves fast mixing in high dimensions whilst retaining the convergence guarantees of a traditional PDE solver, and without the burden of evaluating this solver for proposals that are likely to be rejected. Numerical results are given using real and simulated data.

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models is the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. For problems with high-dimensional latent variables and large datasets, EM scales poorly because it needs to invert as many large covariance matrices as the number of data points. We introduce probabilistic unrolling, a method that combines Monte Carlo sampling with iterative linear solvers to circumvent matrix inversion. Our theoretical analyses reveal that unrolling and backpropagation through the iterations of the solver can accelerate gradient estimation for maximum likelihood estimation. In experiments on simulated and real data, we demonstrate that probabilistic unrolling learns latent Gaussian models up to an order of magnitude faster than gradient EM, with minimal losses in model performance.

It is highly predicted that the roads and parking areas will be extremely congested with vehicles to the point that searching for a novel solution will not be an optional choice for conserving the sustainability rate of the overall humanity's development growth. Such issue could be overcome by developing modified generations of the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles that essentially depend on the Vertical and/or Short Take-Off and Landing (V/STOL) feature to increase the efficiency of landing capabilities on limited-space parking areas. The complexity of integrating an efficient and safe V/STOL feature in such UAM vehicles is notably difficult comparing with the conventional and normal techniques for landing and take-off. The efficient V/STOL feature should be carried out by a complete and collaborative Cyber-Physical System (CPS) processing architecture, such as the CPS-5C architecture. In this paper, we only proposed two CPS-5C physical layers of a V/STOL Autonomous Landing Guidance Assistant System (ALGAS2) processing unit to increase the reliability of the vertical landing mechanism. The proposed V/STOL-ALGAS2 system depends on Fuzzy Logic System (FLS) as the advanced control unit. Furthermore, the proposed ALGAS2 system depends on four symmetric and segregated processing ALGAS2 cores that processing the data in a fully parallel and independent manner to enhance many essential security and safety factors for the futuristic UAM vehicles. The proposed ALGAS2 digital circuits architecture has been designed using MATLAB and VHDL. Also, it has been further analyzed for the implementation and validation tests using the Intel Altera OpenVINO FPGA board. The proposed ALGAS processing unit attained a maximum computational processing performance of about 21.22 Giga Operations per Seconds (GOPS).

With only observational data on two variables, and without other assumptions, it is not possible to infer which one causes the other. Much of the causal literature has focused on guaranteeing identifiability of causal direction in statistical models for datasets where strong assumptions hold, such as additive noise or restrictions on parameter count. These methods are then subsequently tested on realistic datasets, most of which violate their assumptions. Building on previous attempts, we show how to use causal assumptions within the Bayesian framework. This allows us to specify models with realistic assumptions, while also encoding independent causal mechanisms, leading to an asymmetry between the causal directions. Identifying causal direction then becomes a Bayesian model selection problem. We analyse why Bayesian model selection works for known identifiable cases and flexible model classes, while also providing correctness guarantees about its behaviour. To demonstrate our approach, we construct a Bayesian non-parametric model that can flexibly model the joint. We then outperform previous methods on a wide range of benchmark datasets with varying data generating assumptions showing the usefulness of our method.