In recent years, word embeddings have been widely used to measure biases in texts. Even if they have proven to be effective in detecting a wide variety of biases, metrics based on word embeddings lack transparency and interpretability. We analyze an alternative PMI-based metric to quantify biases in texts. It can be expressed as a function of conditional probabilities, which provides a simple interpretation in terms of word co-occurrences. We also prove that it can be approximated by an odds ratio, which allows estimating confidence intervals and statistical significance of textual biases. This approach produces similar results to metrics based on word embeddings when capturing gender gaps of the real world embedded in large corpora.

Cyber threat attribution is the process of identifying the actor of an attack incident in cyberspace. An accurate and timely threat attribution plays an important role in deterring future attacks by applying appropriate and timely defense mechanisms. Manual analysis of attack patterns gathered by honeypot deployments, intrusion detection systems, firewalls, and via trace-back procedures is still the preferred method of security analysts for cyber threat attribution. Such attack patterns are low-level Indicators of Compromise (IOC). They represent Tactics, Techniques, Procedures (TTP), and software tools used by the adversaries in their campaigns. The adversaries rarely re-use them. They can also be manipulated, resulting in false and unfair attribution. To empirically evaluate and compare the effectiveness of both kinds of IOC, there are two problems that need to be addressed. The first problem is that in recent research works, the ineffectiveness of low-level IOC for cyber threat attribution has been discussed intuitively. An empirical evaluation for the measure of the effectiveness of low-level IOC based on a real-world dataset is missing. The second problem is that the available dataset for high-level IOC has a single instance for each predictive class label that cannot be used directly for training machine learning models. To address these problems in this research work, we empirically evaluate the effectiveness of low-level IOC based on a real-world dataset that is specifically built for comparative analysis with high-level IOC. The experimental results show that the high-level IOC trained models effectively attribute cyberattacks with an accuracy of 95% as compared to the low-level IOC trained models where accuracy is 40%.

Algorithmic and data-driven decisions and recommendations are commonly used in high-stakes decision-making settings such as criminal justice, medicine, and public policy. We investigate whether it would have been possible to improve a security assessment algorithm employed during the Vietnam War, using outcomes measured immediately after its introduction in late 1969. This empirical application raises several methodological challenges that frequently arise in high-stakes algorithmic decision-making. First, before implementing a new algorithm, it is essential to characterize and control the risk of yielding worse outcomes than the existing algorithm. Second, the existing algorithm is deterministic, and learning a new algorithm requires transparent extrapolation. Third, the existing algorithm involves discrete decision tables that are common but difficult to optimize over. To address these challenges, we introduce the Average Conditional Risk (ACRisk), which first quantifies the risk that a new algorithmic policy leads to worse outcomes for subgroups of individual units and then averages this over the distribution of subgroups. We also propose a Bayesian policy learning framework that maximizes the posterior expected value while controlling the posterior expected ACRisk. This framework separates the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects from policy optimization, enabling flexible estimation of effects and optimization over complex policy classes. We characterize the resulting chance-constrained optimization problem as a constrained linear programming problem. Our analysis shows that compared to the actual algorithm used during the Vietnam War, the learned algorithm assesses most regions as more secure and emphasizes economic and political factors over military factors.

Stellar ages are critical building blocks of evolutionary models, but challenging to measure for low mass main sequence stars. An unexplored solution in this regime is the application of probabilistic machine learning methods to gyrochronology, a stellar dating technique that is uniquely well suited for these stars. While accurate analytical gyrochronological models have proven challenging to develop, here we apply conditional normalizing flows to photometric data from open star clusters, and demonstrate that a data-driven approach can constrain gyrochronological ages with a precision comparable to other standard techniques. We evaluate the flow results in the context of a Bayesian framework, and show that our inferred ages recover literature values well. This work demonstrates the potential of a probabilistic data-driven solution to widen the applicability of gyrochronological stellar dating.

Flow matching is a recent framework to train generative models that exhibits impressive empirical performance while being relatively easier to train compared with diffusion-based models. Despite its advantageous properties, prior methods still face the challenges of expensive computing and a large number of function evaluations of off-the-shelf solvers in the pixel space. Furthermore, although latent-based generative methods have shown great success in recent years, this particular model type remains underexplored in this area. In this work, we propose to apply flow matching in the latent spaces of pretrained autoencoders, which offers improved computational efficiency and scalability for high-resolution image synthesis. This enables flow-matching training on constrained computational resources while maintaining their quality and flexibility. Additionally, our work stands as a pioneering contribution in the integration of various conditions into flow matching for conditional generation tasks, including label-conditioned image generation, image inpainting, and semantic-to-image generation. Through extensive experiments, our approach demonstrates its effectiveness in both quantitative and qualitative results on various datasets, such as CelebA-HQ, FFHQ, LSUN Church & Bedroom, and ImageNet. We also provide a theoretical control of the Wasserstein-2 distance between the reconstructed latent flow distribution and true data distribution, showing it is upper-bounded by the latent flow matching objective. Our code will be available at https://github.com/VinAIResearch/LFM.git.

Corruption is frequently observed in collected data and has been extensively studied in machine learning under different corruption models. Despite this, there remains a limited understanding of how these models relate such that a unified view of corruptions and their consequences on learning is still lacking. In this work, we formally analyze corruption models at the distribution level through a general, exhaustive framework based on Markov kernels. We highlight the existence of intricate joint and dependent corruptions on both labels and attributes, which are rarely touched by existing research. Further, we show how these corruptions affect standard supervised learning by analyzing the resulting changes in Bayes Risk. Our findings offer qualitative insights into the consequences of "more complex" corruptions on the learning problem, and provide a foundation for future quantitative comparisons. Applications of the framework include corruption-corrected learning, a subcase of which we study in this paper by theoretically analyzing loss correction with respect to different corruption instances.

Supervised learning in Neural Machine Translation (NMT) typically follows a teacher forcing paradigm where reference tokens constitute the conditioning context in the model's prediction, instead of its own previous predictions. In order to alleviate this lack of exploration in the space of translations, we present a simple extension of standard maximum likelihood estimation by a contrastive marking objective. The additional training signals are extracted automatically from reference translations by comparing the system hypothesis against the reference, and used for up/down-weighting correct/incorrect tokens. The proposed new training procedure requires one additional translation pass over the training set per epoch, and does not alter the standard inference setup. We show that training with contrastive markings yields improvements on top of supervised learning, and is especially useful when learning from postedits where contrastive markings indicate human error corrections to the original hypotheses. Code is publicly released.

Combining complex mathematical models with observational data is an extremely challenging yet ubiquitous problem in the field of modern applied mathematics and data science. Inverse problems, where one is interested in learning inputs to a mathematical model such as physical parameters and initial conditions given partial and noisy observation of model outputs, are hence of frequent interest. Adopting a Bayesian approach[15, 32], we incorporate our prior knowledge on the inputs into a probability distribution, the prior distribution, and obtain a more accurate representation of the model inputs in the posterior distribution, which results from conditioning the prior distribution on the observed data. The posterior distribution contains all the necessary information about the characteristics of our inputs.

Mobile robots that navigate in unknown environments need to be constantly aware of the dynamic objects in their surroundings for mapping, localization, and planning. It is key to reason about moving objects in the current observation and at the same time to also update the internal model of the static world to ensure safety. In this paper, we address the problem of jointly estimating moving objects in the current 3D LiDAR scan and a local map of the environment. We use sparse 4D convolutions to extract spatio-temporal features from scan and local map and segment all 3D points into moving and non-moving ones. Additionally, we propose to fuse these predictions in a probabilistic representation of the dynamic environment using a Bayes filter. This volumetric belief models, which parts of the environment can be occupied by moving objects. Our experiments show that our approach outperforms existing moving object segmentation baselines and even generalizes to different types of LiDAR sensors. We demonstrate that our volumetric belief fusion can increase the precision and recall of moving object segmentation and even retrieve previously missed moving objects in an online mapping scenario.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer an attractive method for regression over small, structured and correlated datasets. However, their deployment is hindered by computational costs and limited guidelines on how to apply GPs beyond simple low-dimensional datasets. We propose a framework to identify the suitability of GPs to a given problem and how to set up a robust and well-specified GP model. The guidelines formalise the decisions of experienced GP practitioners, with an emphasis on kernel design and options for computational scalability. The framework is then applied to a case study of glacier elevation change yielding more accurate results at test time.